/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 13 Coal is carried from a mine in W... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Coal is carried from a mine in West Virginia to a power plant in New York in hopper cars on a long train. The automatic hopper car loader is set to put 75 tons of coal into each car. The actual weights of coal loaded into each car are normally distributed, with mean \(\mu=75\) tons and standard deviation \(\sigma=0.8\) ton. (a) What is the probability that one car chosen at random will have less than 74.5 tons of coal? (b) What is the probability that 20 cars chosen at random will have a mean load weight \(\bar{x}\) of less than 74.5 tons of coal? (c) Interpretation Suppose the weight of coal in one car was less than 74.5 tons. Would that fact make you suspect that the loader had slipped out of adjustment? Suppose the weight of coal in 20 cars sclected at random had an average \(\bar{x}\) of less than 74.5 tons. Would that fact make you suspect that the loader had slipped out of adjustment? Why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.2659; (b) 0.0026; (c) Single car: normal variability; 20 cars: suggests a problem.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find probabilities related to the weights of coal in hopper cars using the properties of a normal distribution. We have three parts to solve: finding the probability for a single car, the probability for the mean of multiple cars, and interpreting the results.
02

Calculate Probability for a Single Car (Part a)

We need to find the probability that a single car has less than 74.5 tons of coal. This is essentially finding the probability that a value of a normal distribution with mean 75 and standard deviation 0.8 is less than 74.5. Use the Z-score formula: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} = \frac{74.5 - 75}{0.8} = -0.625 \]Find the probability associated with this Z-score in the standard normal distribution tables or using a calculator.
03

Probability for Single Car Result

The Z-score of -0.625 corresponds to a cumulative probability of approximately 0.2659. Thus, the probability that a single car has less than 74.5 tons is 0.2659.
04

Calculate Probability for 20 Cars (Part b)

For 20 cars, we calculate the probability that the average weight is less than 74.5 tons. The standard deviation of the sample mean is given by \( \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( n = 20 \): \[ \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{0.8}{\sqrt{20}} = 0.179 \]Calculate the Z-score for the mean weight: \[ Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{\sigma_{\bar{x}}} = \frac{74.5 - 75}{0.179} = -2.7933 \]Find the probability associated with this Z-score.
05

Probability for 20 Cars Result

The Z-score of -2.7933 corresponds to a cumulative probability of approximately 0.0026. Thus, the probability that the average weight of 20 cars is less than 74.5 tons is 0.0026.
06

Interpretation (Part c)

A single car having less than 74.5 tons is within the realm of normal variability (probability of 26.59%), so it might not immediately suggest an issue. However, if the average of 20 cars is less than 74.5 tons, this is much less likely (probability of 0.26%), suggesting a higher chance that the loader has slipped out of adjustment. This is because rare events in a sample of 20 typically suggest an underlying shift in the process.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Z-Score
The Z-score is a very useful measure in statistics that tells us how far and in what direction a data point deviates from the mean of a data set. It's calculated by taking the difference between a value and the mean, and then dividing by the standard deviation. For any normal distribution:
  • If the Z-score is 0, the value is exactly at the mean.
  • A positive Z-score indicates the value is above the mean.
  • A negative Z-score signifies the value is below the mean.
In our exercise, the Z-score helps determine how unusual it is for a hopper car's load to be less than 74.5 tons when the mean is 75 tons. Using the formula for Z-score: \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \] we calculate for a single car: \[ Z = \frac{74.5 - 75}{0.8} = -0.625 \] This negative Z-score shows the weight is below the mean. To find the probability of this occurrence, we refer to the standard normal distribution tables.
Exploring Sample Mean
The Sample Mean is the average value in a sample set, and it's a key concept in statistics for estimating the attributes of a population. When considering a group of 20 hopper cars and their coal weights, you need to look at how their average (sample mean) compares to the expected average (population mean). The formula to calculate the sample mean is the sum of all measurements divided by the number of samples. To determine how likely it is for the average load of 20 cars to be less than 74.5 tons, a Z-score for the sample mean is calculated differently. You use the standard error instead of the standard deviation alone: \[ \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \] This represents the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the sample mean. For our exercise: \[ \sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{0.8}{\sqrt{20}} \approx 0.179 \] Knowing this allows us to compute: \[ Z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu}{\sigma_{\bar{x}}} = \frac{74.5 - 75}{0.179} \approx -2.7933 \] A Z-score of -2.7933 indicates the sample mean is significantly below the population mean.
The Role of Cumulative Probability
Cumulative Probability helps to determine the likelihood that a random variable will fall within a certain range. It sums up the probabilities of all values less than or equal to a certain number. For Z-scores, the cumulative probability is often used to assess how extreme a calculated Z-score is. In our case, if you have a Z-score of -0.625 for a single car's load, you'll look up this score in a standard normal distribution table to find the proportion of data falling below this Z-score. The cumulative probability associated with a Z-score of -0.625 is approximately 0.2659. This means there's a 26.59% chance that a single car carries less than 74.5 tons. When considering multiple cars, the cumulative probability for a Z-score of -2.7933 is approximately 0.0026. This is significantly lower, indicating only a 0.26% chance that the average weight of 20 cars is under 74.5 tons. Such a low cumulative probability suggests it is quite unusual, possibly pointing to an error or issue with the loader if observed in real situations.

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