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USA Today reported that the U.S. (annual) birthrate is about 16 per 1000 people, and the death rate is about 8 per 1000 people. (a) Explain why the Poisson probability distribution would be a good choice for the random variable \(r=\) number of births (or deaths) for a community of a given population size. (b) In a community of 1000 people, what is the (annual) probability of 10 births? What is the probability of 10 deaths? What is the probability of 16 births? 16 deaths? (c) Repeat part (b) for a community of 1500 people. You will need to use a calculator to compute \(P(10 \text { births) and } P(16\text { births). }\) (d) Repeat part (b) for a community of 750 people.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Poisson is suitable because it models random, rare events. (b) For 1000 people: 10 births ≈ 0.032, 10 deaths ≈ 0.100, 16 births ≈ 0.099, 16 deaths ≈ 0.021. (c) For 1500 people: 10 births ≈ 0.006, 10 deaths ≈ 0.104, 16 births ≈ 0.101, 16 deaths ≈ 0.067. (d) For 750 people: 10 births ≈ 0.104, 10 deaths ≈ 0.042, 16 births ≈ 0.075, 16 deaths ≈ 0.003.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution is suitable for counting events that occur independently over a fixed interval. Births and deaths in a community fit this description because they are random, rare events occurring over a specified period (e.g., a year), making the Poisson distribution a good model.
02

Calculating for a community of 1000 people

The rate of birth is 16 per 1000 people, and the rate of death is 8 per 1000 people. Hence, the parameter \( \lambda \) for births is \( \lambda_b = 16 \) and for deaths is \( \lambda_d = 8 \). The probability of observing 10 births is given by the formula: \[ P(X=r) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^r}{r!} \]For 10 births: \[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-16} \cdot 16^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.032 \]Repeat the calculation for deaths:\[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-8} \cdot 8^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.100 \]Now calculate for 16 births and deaths:For 16 births:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-16} \cdot 16^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.099 \]For 16 deaths:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-8} \cdot 8^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.021 \]
03

Calculating for a community of 1500 people

In a community of 1500 people, the rate becomes \( \lambda_b = 24 \) for births and \( \lambda_d = 12 \) for deaths. Using the Poisson formula:For 10 births:\[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-24} \cdot 24^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.006 \]For 10 deaths:\[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-12} \cdot 12^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.104 \]For 16 births:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-24} \cdot 24^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.101 \]For 16 deaths:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-12} \cdot 12^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.067 \]
04

Calculating for a community of 750 people

For a community of 750 people, the rate is \( \lambda_b = 12 \) and \( \lambda_d = 6 \).For 10 births:\[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-12} \cdot 12^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.104 \]For 10 deaths:\[ P(X=10) = \frac{e^{-6} \cdot 6^{10}}{10!} \approx 0.042 \]For 16 births:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-12} \cdot 12^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.075 \]For 16 deaths:\[ P(X=16) = \frac{e^{-6} \cdot 6^{16}}{16!} \approx 0.003 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Birth Rates
Birth rates primarily tell us how many new lives start in a community over a specified period, like a year. The birth rate is often represented as the number of births per 1000 people annually. In the context of this problem, the U.S. annual birth rate provided is 16 per 1000 people. This data is crucial in calculating the expected number of births in a given population size when applying the Poisson distribution. By knowing the birth rate and the size of the community, we can estimate the parameter \( \lambda \) for the Poisson distribution, which in this case equals 16 for a community of 1000 people. The Poisson distribution helps us understand the probability of observing various numbers of births, given that births are random and rare from a statistical perspective.
Understanding Death Rates
Death rates give us insight into how many lives end within a community in a given time frame, typically calculated per 1000 individuals per year. For this exercise, the U.S. death rate is noted as 8 per 1000 people. This rate assists in defining the \( \lambda \) for the Poisson distribution in death-related calculations. The Poisson distribution is suitable for death rates' analysis because each death is considered an independent random event. For example, in a population of 1000 people, the \( \lambda \) parameter for deaths is set at 8. By utilizing this distribution, we can predict the likelihood of having a certain number of deaths in a community, which is useful for planning and resources allocation.
Probability Calculation with Poisson Distribution
The Poisson distribution provides a way to calculate the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time, given a known average rate \( \lambda \). The formula \[ P(X=r) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^r}{r!} \] allows us to determine probabilities such as the likelihood of 10 or 16 births or deaths in communities of varying sizes. It is particularly helpful because it deals with occurrences that happen independently and are rare, like births and deaths. By applying this formula, one can plug in the respective values of \( \lambda \) and \( r \) to find the desired probabilities, using a calculator or statistical software for more complex calculations.
Significance of Population Size
Population size plays a crucial role in determining the parameter \( \lambda \) for the Poisson distribution in this problem. The size of the community directly impacts the expected occurrences of births and deaths since \( \lambda \) is calculated as a product of the birth or death rate and the population size. When increasing the community size from 1000 to 1500, the \( \lambda \) for births changes from 16 to 24. This new parameter allows for recalculating the probability of observing a specific number of births or deaths, adjusting our expectations and understanding of population dynamics. Smaller or larger populations mean different \( \lambda \) values, reflecting how population size can skew probability outcomes.

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