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USA Today reported that about \(47 \%\) of the general consumer population in the United States is loyal to the automobile manufacturer of their choice. Suppose Chevrolet did a study of a random sample of 1006 Chevrolet owners and found that 490 said they would buy another Chevrolet. Does this indicate that the population proportion of consumers loyal to Chevrolet is more than \(47 \%\) ? Use \(\alpha=0.01\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, the sample does not provide enough evidence to conclude the loyalty proportion is more than 47%.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

In this problem, we need to formulate the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis \[H_0: p = 0.47\] suggests the population proportion of Chevrolet consumers loyal to Chevrolet is 0.47. The alternative hypothesis \[H_1: p > 0.47\]suggests the population proportion is more than 0.47.
02

Set Significance Level

The significance level \(\alpha\) is given as 0.01. This represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true.
03

Collect Sample Information

From the problem, we have- Sample size \( n = 1006 \)- Number of successes (Chevrolet loyalists) \( x = 490 \)- Sample proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{490}{1006} \approx 0.487 \)
04

Calculate Test Statistic

The test statistic for a proportion is calculated as:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \]where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( p_0 = 0.47 \) is the population proportion under the null hypothesis, and \( n = 1006 \) is the sample size. Substitute the values:\[ z = \frac{0.487 - 0.47}{\sqrt{\frac{0.47 \times 0.53}{1006}}} \approx 1.11 \]
05

Determine Critical Value and Decision Rule

For \( \alpha = 0.01 \) and a right-tailed test, find the critical value from the standard normal distribution table. Critical value \( z_{\alpha} \approx 2.33 \).The decision rule is: if \( z \) is greater than \( z_{\alpha} \), reject \( H_0. \)
06

Compare Test Statistic with Critical Value

The calculated test statistic \( z \approx 1.11 \) is less than the critical value \( z_{\alpha} = 2.33 \). Therefore, we do not reject \( H_0. \) This suggests there is not enough evidence at the \( \alpha = 0.01 \) significance level to conclude that the population proportion of consumers loyal to Chevrolet is more than 47%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted by \( \alpha \), is a crucial concept in hypothesis testing. It is the threshold used to determine whether a hypothesis test result is statistically significant. In simple terms, it represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. In our exercise, the significance level is set at 0.01.
This means there's only a 1% risk of concluding that Chevrolet loyalty exceeds 47% when it doesn't. Using a low \( \alpha = 0.01 \) tells us we are being very strict about making claims of statistical significance. This is typical in studies where the cost of making a mistake is high, or when researchers want to be very confident in their results before making claims.
Proportion Test
The proportion test is used when researchers want to know if the proportion of a certain characteristic in a population matches a hypothesized value. This test is often applied when the data is binary (e.g., success or failure). In our example involving Chevrolet loyalists:
- The proportion in question is the number of loyal Chevrolet consumers. - The hypothesized proportion under the null hypothesis is 0.47 (or 47%). To conduct a proportion test, we compute the test statistic, which is a standardized value that helps determine how much the sample proportion deviates from the hypothesized population proportion. It involves calculating the sample proportion and comparing it to the hypothesized proportion under conditions of randomness and normality.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, often denoted as \( H_0 \), serves as the default assumption that there's no effect or difference. It is what we seek to test against with our sample data. In the Chevrolet exercise, the null hypothesis is given by:- \( H_0: p = 0.47 \)This means we initially assume that the proportion of loyal Chevrolet customers is 47%. The goal is not to prove this hypothesis right but rather to determine whether we have enough evidence to reject it.
The null hypothesis forms the basis of statistical testing, acting as a statement to hold unless the sample data suggests otherwise.
Alternative Hypothesis
In hypothesis testing, the alternative hypothesis is denoted as \( H_1 \) and represents the statement we are trying to gather evidence to support. It is the opposite of the null hypothesis. For the Chevrolet loyalty question:- \( H_1: p > 0.47 \)This suggests that the proportion of Chevrolet loyalists is greater than 47%. If our test finds enough statistical support, we would accept the alternative hypothesis over the null hypothesis.
It is essential to formulate the alternative hypothesis carefully, as it directly impacts the type of statistical test conducted, the direction of the test (one-tailed vs two-tailed), and the interpretation of results.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a set of data pairs. What is the first step in processing the data for a paired differences test? What is the formula for the sample test statistic \(t ?\) Describe each symbol used in the formula.

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