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Suppose \(x\) has a distribution with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of \(16 .\) Random samples of size \(n=64\) are drawn. (a) Describe the \(\bar{x}\) distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation of the distribution. (b) Find the \(z\) value corresponding to \(\bar{x}=9\). (c) Find \(P(\bar{x}>9)\). (d) Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from the \(x\) distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The \(\bar{x}\) distribution is normal, with mean 8 and std. deviation 2. For \(\bar{x}=9\), \(z=0.5\) and \(P(\bar{x}>9)\approx 0.3085\). It is not unusual for \(\bar{x} > 9\).

Step by step solution

01

Identify the distribution of \(\bar{x}\)

Given that the population mean \(\mu = 8\) and standard deviation \(\sigma = 16\), and sample size \(n = 64\), the distribution of \(\bar{x}\) (the sample mean) will be normally distributed due to the Central Limit Theorem because the sample size is large enough.
02

Calculate the mean of \(\bar{x}\)

The mean of the distribution of the sample mean \(\bar{x}\) is equal to the population mean. Therefore, \(\mu_{\bar{x}} = \mu = 8\).
03

Calculate the standard deviation of \(\bar{x}\)

The standard deviation of \(\bar{x}\), also called the standard error of the mean, is calculated using the formula: \(\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{16}{\sqrt{64}} = 2\).
04

Compute the z-score for \(\bar{x} = 9\)

The z-score is calculated using \(z = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_{\bar{x}}}{\sigma_{\bar{x}}} = \frac{9 - 8}{2} = 0.5\).
05

Calculate \(P(\bar{x} > 9)\)

To find \(P(\bar{x} > 9)\), look up the z-score in a standard normal distribution table. The z-score of 0.5 corresponds to a cumulative probability of approximately 0.6915. Then, \(P(\bar{x} > 9) = 1 - P(\bar{x} \leq 9) = 1 - 0.6915 = 0.3085\).
06

Determine if a sample mean greater than 9 is unusual

Since \(P(\bar{x} > 9) = 0.3085\), this probability is not particularly small (often, thresholds like 0.05 or 0.01 might be used to define unusualness), so it would not be unusual to obtain a sample mean greater than 9 for a sample of size 64.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a fundamental concept in statistics that helps us understand the behavior of sample means from any population. It's especially helpful because it tells us that regardless of the population's original distribution, the distribution of the sample mean will look more and more like a normal distribution as the sample size increases.

Here's why the CLT is important:
  • It applies to any population, regardless of shape, as long as the sample size is large enough.
  • This theorem allows us to make inferences about population parameters using sample data, which is crucial in research and decision-making.
  • The CLT helps calculate probabilities for events related to sample means, like determining if a sample mean greater than a certain value is unusual.
In the given exercise, a sample size of 64 is considered large enough for the CLT to ensure the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is normally distributed. This assumption makes it feasible to use normal distribution calculations to find values and probabilities. The mean of \( \bar{x} \) is the same as the population mean. This is key to understanding how sample means can effectively estimate population means.
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure that tells us how spread out the values are in a data set. In the context of the distribution of sample means, it is called the standard error. It gives us an idea of how much the sample mean can vary from the actual population mean.

In our exercise, the formula for the standard error of the mean is used:\[\sigma_{\bar{x}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]where \( \sigma \) is the population standard deviation and \( n \) is the sample size.
Using the numbers from the exercise:
  • Population standard deviation \( \sigma = 16 \)
  • Sample size \( n = 64 \)
  • Standard error \( \sigma_{\bar{x}} = 2 \)
This means the sample mean will generally deviate from the population mean by 2 units, which informs us about the reliability and variability of our sample estimates. The smaller the standard error, the closer the sample means will be to the population mean, suggesting good accuracy and less variability.
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution, also known as the bell curve, is one of the most important probability distributions in statistics. This distribution looks like a bell when graphed and has a symmetrical shape, with most of the data clustering around the mean.

For a normal distribution:
  • The mean, median, and mode are all located at the center of the distribution.
  • The spread of the distribution is determined by the standard deviation.
  • Approximately 68% of the data lies within one standard deviation of the mean.
  • About 95% lies within two standard deviations.
  • Nearly 99.7% falls within three standard deviations.
In our exercise, since the Central Limit Theorem applies, the distribution of the sample mean \( \bar{x} \) is approximately normal, even if the population distribution isn't. This approximated normal distribution allows us to use Z-scores and probability tables to perform calculations, like finding \( P(\bar{x} > 9) \).This probability tells us the likelihood of our sample mean being greater than 9, based on typical sample variation. Understanding how normal distributions work helps us interpret and predict statistical data effectively.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

What is a sampling distribution?

Sketch the areas under the standard normal curve over the indicated intervals, and find the specified areas. Between \(z=1.42\) and \(z=2.17\)

Sketch the areas under the standard normal curve over the indicated intervals, and find the specified areas. Between \(z=-1.98\) and \(z=-0.03\)

Attendance at large exhibition shows in Denver averages about 8000 people per day, with standard deviation of about \(500 .\) Assume that the daily attendance figures follow a normal distribution. (a) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be fewer than 7200 people? (b) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be more than 8900 people? (c) What is the probability that the daily attendance will be between 7200 and 8900 people?

Let \(x\) be a random variable that represents the level of glucose in the blood (milligrams per deciliter of blood) after a 12 -hour fast. Assume that for people under 50 years old, \(x\) has a distribution that is approximately normal, with mean \(\mu=85\) and estimated standard deviation \(\sigma=25\) (based on information from Diagnostic Tests with Nursing Applications, edited by S. Loeb, Springhouse). A test result \(x<40\) is an indication of severe excess insulin, and medication is usually prescribed. (a) What is the probability that, on a single test, \(x<40\) ? (b) Suppose a doctor uses the average \(\bar{x}\) for two tests taken about a week apart. What can we say about the probability distribution of \(\bar{x}\) ? Hint: See Theorem 6.1. What is the probability that \(\bar{x}<40\) ? (c) Repeat part (b) for \(n=3\) tests taken a week apart. (d) Repeat part (b) for \(n=5\) tests taken a week apart. (e) Compare your answers to parts (a), (b), (c), and (d). Did the probabilities decrease as \(n\) increased? Explain what this might imply if you were a doctor or a nurse. If a patient had a test result of \(\bar{x}<40\) based on five tests, explain why either you are looking at an extremely rare event or (more likely) the person has a case of excess insulin.

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