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(a) Suppose a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means contains both positive and negative numbers. Will a \(99 \%\) confidence interval based on the same data necessarily contain both positive and negative numbers? Explain. What about a \(90 \%\) confidence interval? Explain. (b) Suppose a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains all positive numbers. Will a \(99 \%\) confidence interval based on the same data necessarily contain all positive numbers as well? Explain. What about a \(90 \%\) confidence interval? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 99% will contain both signs; 90% might not. (b) 99% may include zero; 90% will stay positive.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Intervals and Their Interpretation

A confidence interval gives a range of values that, with a certain level of confidence, contains the true population parameter. The confidence level (e.g., 95%, 99%) reflects the degree of certainty we have in this range. A higher confidence level means a wider interval, as it accounts for more variability.
02

Interpreting Part (a): 95% Confidence Interval

In part (a), a 95% confidence interval for the difference of means contains both positive and negative numbers. This implies that the interval includes zero, suggesting that there may be no significant difference between the means.
03

Exploring the 99% Confidence Interval

For the same data, a 99% confidence interval will be wider than a 95% interval. Since the 95% interval already includes both positive and negative numbers (and thus zero), expanding it to 99% will still include zero. Therefore, the 99% interval will also contain both positive and negative numbers.
04

Exploring the 90% Confidence Interval

A 90% confidence interval will be narrower compared to a 95% interval. It’s possible for the narrower interval not to include zero if it shifts entirely positive or negative, but this is not a necessity; it depends on the data. However, because the 95% interval includes zero, the 90% interval might still include zero, or it might exclude it if the means are close to showing significance.
05

Interpreting Part (b): 95% Confidence Interval for Proportions

In part (b), a 95% confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains all positive numbers, indicating a significant difference with the higher proportion values at 95% confidence.
06

Exploring the 99% Confidence Interval for Proportions

A 99% confidence interval will be wider than a 95% interval. Hence, even though a 95% interval shows all positive numbers, expanding to 99% might include zero if the bounds were close to it. Thus, a 99% interval might not necessarily contain all positive numbers.
07

Exploring the 90% Confidence Interval for Proportions

A 90% confidence interval is narrower than a 95% interval. If the 95% interval contained all positive numbers, the 90% interval will also contain all positive numbers, as the narrowing will simply crop the extremes, but not suggest an overlap over zero.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference of Means
In statistics, the "difference of means" refers to the subtraction of the average values of two different groups or datasets. Imagine comparing the average heights of two different groups of people—that's finding a difference of means. This concept helps identify if there is a statistical difference between two sets of data.

When dealing with confidence intervals for the difference of means, the interval gives a range where we expect the true difference between the group means lies, based on our sample data. If this interval includes zero, it suggests that there may not be a significant difference between the group means. If it does not include zero, there might be a significant difference, showing one group has a higher or lower mean than the other.

Understanding whether a confidence interval contains zero is critical for determining statistical significance and interpreting experimental results.
Difference of Proportions
The "difference of proportions" is similar to the difference of means, but instead of comparing averages, it compares proportions between two groups. For instance, if we're looking at two different classes, one might have a higher proportion of students who passed an exam compared to another class.

A confidence interval for the difference of proportions will indicate if there is a statistically significant difference between the two groups with respect to the percentages of specific outcomes. If the interval is entirely positive or entirely negative, we have evidence of a significant difference between group proportions. This can be crucial in fields like medicine, where proportion differences can imply effectiveness differences between treatments or conditions.

It's the confidence interval's range, once again, which provides insights into the extent and significance of the difference.
Confidence Level
The "confidence level" is a percentage that indicates how sure we are that a parameter lies within the confidence interval. Common levels include 90%, 95%, and 99%.

A key point to remember is:
  • A higher confidence level means we want to be more certain that the interval contains the true parameter. To achieve this certainty, the interval becomes wider.
  • For instance, a 99% confidence level will have a broader interval compared to a 90% one, because it accounts for more variability and unusual sample outcomes.
  • The confidence level is often chosen based on the context of the study and how much certainty decisions require.
It’s important to balance the width of the interval and the confidence level when interpreting results. Too wide an interval might lack precision, while a narrower one might lack reliability.
Interval Width
"Interval width" plays an essential role in understanding the preciseness and reliability of a confidence interval. As the confidence level increases, so does the interval width because to be more confident, you need to account for a larger range of values.

Think of it like adjusting the zoom on a camera: the closer you zoom (higher confidence), the broader your view needs to be to ensure the object of interest is included. Conversely, a lower confidence level results in a narrower interval, much like zooming out, which gives a smaller range but is less precise.

The width of an interval:
  • Demonstrates the precision of the estimate.
  • Influenced by sample size—the larger the sample, the narrower the interval because there's more data to stabilize the estimate.
  • A crucial consideration for determining whether the conclusions drawn from the interval are informative.
Understanding and balancing these factors are vital for interpreting statistical results and making informed decisions based on them.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

How much does a sleeping bag cost? Let's say you want a sleeping bag that should keep you warm in temperatures from \(20^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\) to \(45^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). A random sample of prices (\$) for sleeping bags in this temperature range was taken from Backpacker Magazine: Gear Guide (Vol. 25 , Issue 157, No. 2). Brand names include American Camper, Cabela's, Camp 7, Caribou, Cascade, and Coleman. \(\begin{array}{rrrrrrrrrr}80 & 90 & 100 & 120 & 75 & 37 & 30 & 23 & 100 & 110 \\ 105 & 95 & 105 & 60 & 110 & 120 & 95 & 90 & 60 & 70\end{array}\) (a) Use a calculator with mean and sample standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x} \approx \$ 83.75\) and \(s \approx \$ 28.97\). (b) Using the given data as representative of the population of prices of all summer sleeping bags, find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the mean price \(\mu\) of all summer sleeping bags.

The home run percentage is the number of home runs per 100 times at bat. A random sample of 43 professional baseball players gave the following data for home run percentages (Reference: The Baseball Encyclopedia, Macmillan). $$ \begin{array}{llllllllll} 1.6 & 2.4 & 1.2 & 6.6 & 2.3 & 0.0 & 1.8 & 2.5 & 6.5 & 1.8 \\ 2.7 & 2.0 & 1.9 & 1.3 & 2.7 & 1.7 & 1.3 & 2.1 & 2.8 & 1.4 \\ 3.8 & 2.1 & 3.4 & 1.3 & 1.5 & 2.9 & 2.6 & 0.0 & 4.1 & 2.9 \\ 1.9 & 2.4 & 0.0 & 1.8 & 3.1 & 3.8 & 3.2 & 1.6 & 4.2 & 0.0 \\ 1.2 & 1.8 & 2.4 & & & & & & & \end{array} $$ (a) Use a calculator with mean and standard deviation keys to verify that \(\bar{x} \approx 2.29\) and \(s \approx 1.40 .\) (b) Compute a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\) of home run percentages for all professional baseball players. Hint: If you use Table 6 of Appendix II, be sure to use the closest \(d\). \(f\). that is smaller. (c) Compute a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu\) of home run percentages for all professional baseball players. (d) The home run percentages for three professional players are Tim Huelett, \(2.5 \quad\) Herb Hunter, \(2.0 \quad\) Jackie Jensen, \(3.8\) Examine your confidence intervals and describe how the home run percentages for these players compare to the population average. (e) In previous problems, we assumed the \(x\) distribution was normal or approximately normal. Do we need to make such an assumption in this problem? Why or why not? Hint: See the central limit theorem in Section \(7.2 .\)

When \(\sigma\) is unknown and the sample is of size \(n \geq 30\), there are two methods for computing confidence intervals for \(\mu\). Method 1: Use the Student's \(t\) distribution with \(d . f .=n-1 .\) This is the method used in the text. It is widely employed in statistical studies. Also, most statistical software packages use this method. Method 2: When \(n \geq 30\), use the sample standard deviation \(s\) as an estimate for \(\sigma\), and then use the standard normal distribution. This method is based on the fact that for large samples, \(s\) is a fairly good approximation for \(\sigma .\) Also, for large \(n\), the critical values for the Student's \(t\) distribution approach those of the standard normal distribution. Consider a random sample of size \(n=31\), with sample mean \(\bar{x}=45.2\) and sample standard deviation \(s=5.3\). (a) Compute \(90 \%, 95 \%\), and \(99 \%\) confidence intervals for \(\mu\) using Method 1 with a Student's \(t\) distribution. Round endpoints to two digits after the decimal. (b) Compute \(90 \%, 95 \%\), and \(99 \%\) confidence intervals for \(\mu\) using Method 2 with the standard normal distribution. Use \(s\) as an estimate for \(\sigma\). Round endpoints to two digits after the decimal. (c) Compare intervals for the two methods. Would you say that confidence intervals using a Student's \(t\) distribution are more conservative in the sense that they tend to be longer than intervals based on the standard normal distribution? (d) Repeat parts (a) through (c) for a sample of size \(n=81\). With increased sample size, do the two methods give respective confidence intervals that are more similar?

Over the past several months, an adult patient has been treated for tetany (severe muscle spasms). This condition is associated with an average total calcium level below \(6 \mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dl}(\) Reference: Manual of Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests, F. Fischbach). Recently, the patient's total calcium tests gave the following readings (in \(\mathrm{mg} / \mathrm{dl}\) ). \(9.3\) \(\begin{array}{llllll}8.8 & 10.1 & 8.9 & 9.4 & 9.8 & 10.0\end{array}\) \(\begin{array}{lll}9.9 & 11.2 & 12.1\end{array}\) (a) Use a calculator to verify that \(\bar{x}=9.95\) and \(s \approx 1.02\). (b) Find a \(99.9 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean of total calcium in this patient's blood. (c) Based on your results in part (b), do you think this patient still has a calcium deficiency? Explain.

A random sample of medical files is used to estimate the proportion \(p\) of all people who have blood type \(B\). (a) If you have no preliminary estimate for \(p\), how many medical files should you include in a random sample in order to be \(85 \%\) sure that the point estimate \(\hat{p}\) will be within a distance of \(0.05\) from \(p ?\) (b) Answer part (a) if you use the preliminary estimate that about 8 out of 90 people have blood type B. (Reference: Manual of Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests, F. Fischbach.)

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