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(a) Suppose a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means contains both positive and negative numbers. Will a \(99 \%\) confidence interval based on the same data necessarily contain both positive and negative numbers? Explain. What about a \(90 \%\) confidence interval? Explain. (b) Suppose a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains all positive numbers. Will a \(99 \%\) confidence interval based on the same data necessarily contain all positive numbers as well? Explain. What about a \(90 \%\) confidence interval? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 99% will contain both signs; 90% might not. (b) 99% may include zero; 90% will stay positive.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Confidence Intervals and Their Interpretation

A confidence interval gives a range of values that, with a certain level of confidence, contains the true population parameter. The confidence level (e.g., 95%, 99%) reflects the degree of certainty we have in this range. A higher confidence level means a wider interval, as it accounts for more variability.
02

Interpreting Part (a): 95% Confidence Interval

In part (a), a 95% confidence interval for the difference of means contains both positive and negative numbers. This implies that the interval includes zero, suggesting that there may be no significant difference between the means.
03

Exploring the 99% Confidence Interval

For the same data, a 99% confidence interval will be wider than a 95% interval. Since the 95% interval already includes both positive and negative numbers (and thus zero), expanding it to 99% will still include zero. Therefore, the 99% interval will also contain both positive and negative numbers.
04

Exploring the 90% Confidence Interval

A 90% confidence interval will be narrower compared to a 95% interval. It’s possible for the narrower interval not to include zero if it shifts entirely positive or negative, but this is not a necessity; it depends on the data. However, because the 95% interval includes zero, the 90% interval might still include zero, or it might exclude it if the means are close to showing significance.
05

Interpreting Part (b): 95% Confidence Interval for Proportions

In part (b), a 95% confidence interval for the difference of proportions contains all positive numbers, indicating a significant difference with the higher proportion values at 95% confidence.
06

Exploring the 99% Confidence Interval for Proportions

A 99% confidence interval will be wider than a 95% interval. Hence, even though a 95% interval shows all positive numbers, expanding to 99% might include zero if the bounds were close to it. Thus, a 99% interval might not necessarily contain all positive numbers.
07

Exploring the 90% Confidence Interval for Proportions

A 90% confidence interval is narrower than a 95% interval. If the 95% interval contained all positive numbers, the 90% interval will also contain all positive numbers, as the narrowing will simply crop the extremes, but not suggest an overlap over zero.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Difference of Means
In statistics, the "difference of means" refers to the subtraction of the average values of two different groups or datasets. Imagine comparing the average heights of two different groups of people—that's finding a difference of means. This concept helps identify if there is a statistical difference between two sets of data.

When dealing with confidence intervals for the difference of means, the interval gives a range where we expect the true difference between the group means lies, based on our sample data. If this interval includes zero, it suggests that there may not be a significant difference between the group means. If it does not include zero, there might be a significant difference, showing one group has a higher or lower mean than the other.

Understanding whether a confidence interval contains zero is critical for determining statistical significance and interpreting experimental results.
Difference of Proportions
The "difference of proportions" is similar to the difference of means, but instead of comparing averages, it compares proportions between two groups. For instance, if we're looking at two different classes, one might have a higher proportion of students who passed an exam compared to another class.

A confidence interval for the difference of proportions will indicate if there is a statistically significant difference between the two groups with respect to the percentages of specific outcomes. If the interval is entirely positive or entirely negative, we have evidence of a significant difference between group proportions. This can be crucial in fields like medicine, where proportion differences can imply effectiveness differences between treatments or conditions.

It's the confidence interval's range, once again, which provides insights into the extent and significance of the difference.
Confidence Level
The "confidence level" is a percentage that indicates how sure we are that a parameter lies within the confidence interval. Common levels include 90%, 95%, and 99%.

A key point to remember is:
  • A higher confidence level means we want to be more certain that the interval contains the true parameter. To achieve this certainty, the interval becomes wider.
  • For instance, a 99% confidence level will have a broader interval compared to a 90% one, because it accounts for more variability and unusual sample outcomes.
  • The confidence level is often chosen based on the context of the study and how much certainty decisions require.
It’s important to balance the width of the interval and the confidence level when interpreting results. Too wide an interval might lack precision, while a narrower one might lack reliability.
Interval Width
"Interval width" plays an essential role in understanding the preciseness and reliability of a confidence interval. As the confidence level increases, so does the interval width because to be more confident, you need to account for a larger range of values.

Think of it like adjusting the zoom on a camera: the closer you zoom (higher confidence), the broader your view needs to be to ensure the object of interest is included. Conversely, a lower confidence level results in a narrower interval, much like zooming out, which gives a smaller range but is less precise.

The width of an interval:
  • Demonstrates the precision of the estimate.
  • Influenced by sample size—the larger the sample, the narrower the interval because there's more data to stabilize the estimate.
  • A crucial consideration for determining whether the conclusions drawn from the interval are informative.
Understanding and balancing these factors are vital for interpreting statistical results and making informed decisions based on them.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Thirty small communities in Connecticut (population near 10,000 each) gave an average of \(\bar{x}=138.5\) reported cases of larceny per year. Assume that \(\sigma\) is known to be \(42.6\) cases per year (Reference: Crime in the United States, Federal Bureau of Investigation). (a) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean annual number of reported larceny cases in such communities. What is the margin of error? (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean annual number of reported larceny cases in such communities. What is the margin of error? (c) Find a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean annual number of reported larceny cases in such communities. What is the margin of error? (d) Compare the margins of error for parts (a) through (c). As the confidence levels increase, do the margins of error increase? (e) Compare the lengths of the confidence intervals for parts (a) through (c). As the confidence levels increase, do the confidence intervals increase in length?

If a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\) contains all positive values, what can we conclude about the relationship between \(\mu_{1}\) and \(\mu_{2}\) at the \(90 \%\) confidence level?

Josh and Kendra each calculated a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference of means using a Student's \(t\) distribution for random samples of size \(n_{1}=20\) and \(n_{2}=31 .\) Kendra followed the convention of using the smaller sample size to compute d.f. \(=19 .\) Josh used his calculator and Satterthwaite's approximation and obtained d.f. \(\approx 36.3 .\) Which confidence interval is shorter? Which confidence interval is more conservative in the sense that the margin of error is larger?

Santa Fe black-on-white is a type of pottery commonly found at archaeological excavations in Bandelier National Monument. At one excavation site a sample of 592 potsherds was found, of which 360 were identified as Santa Fe black-on- white (Bandelier Archaeological Excavation Project: Summer 1990 Excavations at Burnt Mesa Pueblo and Casa del Rito, edited by Kohler and Root, Washington State University). (a) Let \(p\) represent the population proportion of Santa Fe black-on-white potsherds at the excavation site. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p .\) Give a brief statement of the meaning of the confidence interval. (c) Do you think the conditions \(n p>5\) and \(n q>5\) are satisfied in this problem? Why would this be important?

In a marketing survey, a random sample of 1001 supermarket shoppers revealed that 273 always stock up on an item when they find that item at a real bargain price. See reference in Problem \(13 .\) (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all supermarket shoppers who always stock up on an item when they find a real bargain. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p .\) Give a brief explanation of the meaning of the interval. (c) As a news writer, how would you report the survey results on the percentage of supermarket shoppers who stock up on items when they find the item is a real bargain? What is the margin of error based on a \(95 \%\) confidence interval?

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