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Loser buys the pizza Leona and Fred are friendly competitors in high school. Both are about to take the ACT college entrance examination. They agree that if one of them scores 5 or more points better than the other, the loser will buy the winner a pizza. Suppose that, in fact, Fred and Leona have equal ability so that each score on a randomly selected test varies Normally with mean 24and standard deviation 2. (The variation is due to luck in guessing and the accident of the specific questions being familiar to the student.) The two scores are independent. What is the probability that the scores differ by 5 or more points in either direction?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The odds of the scores differing by 5 points or more in either direction are 0.0768.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information

The given Mean and standard deviation,

For Fred:

μX1=24,σX1=2

For Leona:

μX2=24,σX2=2

02

Calculation

Consider,

X1: Fred's grade

x2: Leona'sgrade

Then

X1-X2is the difference between Fred and Leona's scores

X1and X2are independent.

Since X1and X2have a Normal distribution, their difference X1-X2also has a Normal distribution.

Now,

X1:Fred's score

X2: Leona's score

Then

X1-X2is the difference in scores of Fred and Leona

X1and X2are independent.

Since X1and X2have a Normal distribution, their difference X1-X2also has a Normal distribution.

Now, if two variables are present, the difference between their means equals the difference between their means.

μX1-X2=μX1-μX2=24-24=0

When the random variables are independent, the variance of the difference is equal to the total of their variances.

σX1-X22=σX12+σX22=(2)2+(2)2=4+4=8

The mean of the difference between any two variables is equal to the difference between their means.

μX1-X2=μX1-μX2=24-24=0

When the random variables are independent, the variance of the difference is equal to the total of their variances.

σX1-X22=σX12+σX22=(2)2+(2)2=4+4=8

03

Further calculation

The standard deviation is equal to the square root of the variance.

σX1-X2=σX1-X22=8≈2.8284

Since,

The variationX2-X1follows a Normal distribution.

For the Probability:

Find the z - score,

z=-5-02.8284≈-1.77

Or

z=5-02.8284≈1.77

Use the normal probability table in the appendix to get the corresponding probability.

In a standard normal probability table,P(z<-1.77),look for the row that begins with -1.7and the column that begins with.07.

PX1-X2<-5orX1-X2>5=P(z<-1.77orz>1.77)=2(P(z<-1.77))=2(0.0384)=0.0768

As a result, the chances of the scores varying by more than 5 points in any direction are 0.0768.

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