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A researcher plans to conduct a significance test at the \(\alpha=0.01\) significance level. She designs her study to have a power of 0.90 at a particular alternative value of the parameter of interest. The probability that the researcher will commit a Type II error for the particular alternative value of the parameter at which she computed the power is (a) 0.01 . (b) 0.10 . (c) 0.89 . (d) 0.90 . (e) 0.99 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
(b) 0.10.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We are given that a researcher is conducting a significance test with a significance level \(\alpha = 0.01\) and a power of \(0.90\) for a particular alternative hypothesis. We need to find the probability of committing a Type II error.
02

Recall Definitions

A Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis \(H_0\) is not rejected even though the alternative hypothesis \(H_1\) is true. The power of a test is the probability of correctly rejecting \(H_0\) when \(H_1\) is true. Thus, Power = 1 - Probability of Type II error.
03

Relation between Power and Type II Error

The power of the test for the particular alternative hypothesis is \(0.90\). This means the probability of making a correct decision (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false) is \(0.90\). Therefore, the probability of making a Type II error (failing to reject the null hypothesis when it is false) is given by: \(1 - \text{Power} = 1 - 0.90 = 0.10\).
04

Select the Correct Answer

The probability that the researcher will commit a Type II error is \(0.10\), which corresponds to option (b).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Significance Test
A significance test is a statistical method that helps researchers determine if there is enough evidence to reject a null hypothesis. In simple terms, it assesses whether the difference observed in a sample is due to chance. Significance tests use a predefined significance level, denoted by \( \alpha \), to decide the threshold for rejecting the null hypothesis. For instance, in our exercise, the significance level is set at \( \alpha = 0.01 \). This means there is a 1% chance of incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis if it is true.
Significance tests are crucial in research as they provide a standardized way to make inferences. They rely on p-values, which represent the probability that the observed data occurred under the null hypothesis. If the p-value is less than or equal to \( \alpha \), the null hypothesis is rejected. It ensures that conclusions are drawn based on evidence rather than assumption.
Power of a Test
The power of a test is the probability that the test correctly rejects a false null hypothesis. It measures the test's ability to detect a true effect when it exists. This is important because a significant study discovers real differences, not just those due to random chance.
In our scenario, the power of the test is 0.90, meaning there is a 90% chance of detecting the effect if the alternative hypothesis is true. A test with high power is more reliable and reduces the risk of a Type II error. Improving the power of a test usually involves increasing the sample size or choosing more sensitive measurement methods. It's a balance of making sure that positive findings are not missed.
Type I Error
A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is incorrectively rejected. It's akin to declaring an effect or difference exists when it doesn’t. This is often called a false positive error. Type I error is directly associated with the significance level \( \alpha \), which is intentionally set by researchers.
In the exercise, the significance level was \( \alpha = 0.01 \). Therefore, there is a 1% risk of committing a Type I error, meaning the researcher might reject a true null hypothesis 1% of the time. Balancing the significance level is crucial because setting too high a risk (e.g., \( \alpha = 0.05 \)) increases the chance of Type I errors. This speaks to the importance of carefully determining the strength of evidence needed before rejecting the null hypothesis.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), is a hypothesis that there is no significant effect or difference between conditions. It provides a starting point for statistical testing. Performing a significance test challenges the null hypothesis to assess its validity based on sample data.
In research, the null hypothesis acts as a default position that there is no relationship or effect. Rejecting the null hypothesis means offering evidence of an alternative explanation or finding. It is essential for ensuring scientific rigor, as it helps avoid jumping to conclusions without sufficient evidence. Each step in testing revolves around gathering enough data to contain or refute \( H_0 \).
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \( H_1 \), is the statement that there is a significant effect or difference. It's the concept opposite to the null hypothesis, indicating a meaningful relationship or finding. When a test results in rejecting \( H_0 \), it typically supports the alternative hypothesis.In our case, the test's power and significance level revolve around proving \( H_1 \). Understanding the alternative hypothesis is critical because it allows researchers to craft predictions and design experiments that effectively test its validity. By setting realistic hypotheses and measuring their outcomes against \( H_0 \), researchers can draw more actionable insights. This process helps avoid biases and increases the reliability of their conclusions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

You manufacture and sell a liquid product whose electrical conductivity is supposed to be \(5 .\) You plan to make six measurements of the conductivity of each lot of product. If the product meets specifications, the mean of many measurements will be \(5 .\) You will therefore test $$ \begin{array}{l} H_{0}: \mu=5 \\ H_{a}: \mu \neq 5 \end{array} $$ If the true conductivity is \(5.1,\) the liquid is not suitable for its intended use. You learn that the power of your test at the \(5 \%\) significance level against the alternative \(\mu=5.1\) is 0.23. (a) Explain in simple language what "power \(=0.23 "\) means in this setting. (b) You could get higher power against the same alternative with the same \(\alpha\) by changing the number of measurements you make. Should you make more measurements or fewer to increase power? (c) If you decide to use \(\alpha=0.10\) in place of \(\alpha=0.05\), with no other changes in the test, will the power increase or decrease? Justify your answer. (d) If you shift your interest to the alternative \(\mu=5.2\), with no other changes, will the power increase or decrease? Justify your answer.

A retailer entered into an exclusive agreement with a supplier who guaranteed to provide all products at competitive prices. The retailer eventually began to purchase supplies from other vendors who offered better prices. The original supplier filed a lawsuit claiming violation of the agreement. In defense, the retailer had an audit performed on a random sample of 25 invoices. For each audited invoice, all purchases made from other suppliers were examined and compared with those offered by the original supplier. The percent of purchases on each invoice for which an alternative supplier offered a lower price than the original supplier was recorded. \({ }^{21}\) For example, a data value of 38 means that the price would be lower with a different supplier for \(38 \%\) of the items on the invoice. A histogram and some computer output for these data are shown below. Explain why we should not carry out a one-sample \(t\) test in this setting.

Does listening to music while studying hinder students' learning? Two AP Statistics students designed an experiment to find out. They selected a random sample of 30 students from their medium-sized high school to participate. Each subject was given 10 minutes to memorize two different lists of 20 words, once while listening to music and once in silence. The order of the two word lists was determined at random; so was the order of the treatments. The difference in the number of words recalled (music- silence) was recorded for each subject. A paired \(t\) test on the differences yielded \(t=-3.01\) and \(P\) -value \(=0.0027\) (a) State appropriate hypotheses for the paired \(t\) test. Be sure to define your parameter. (b) What are the degrees of freedom for the paired \(t\) test? (c) Interpret the \(P\) -value in context. What conclusion should the students draw? (d) Describe a Type I error and a Type II error in this setting. Which mistake could students have made based on your answer to part (c)?

A college president says, "99\% of the alumni support my firing of Coach Boggs." You contact an SRS of 200 of the college's 15,000 living alumni to perform a test of \(H_{0}: p=0.99\) versus \(H_{a}: p<0.99\)

Which of the following is not a condition for performing a significance test about a population proportion \(p ?\) (a) The data should come from a random sample or randomized experiment. (b) Both \(n p_{0}\) and \(n\left(1-p_{0}\right)\) should be at least 10 . (c) If you are sampling without replacement from a finite population, then you should sample no more than \(10 \%\) of the population. (d) The population distribution should be approximately Normal, unless the sample size is large. (e) All of the above are conditions for performing a significance test about a population proportion.

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