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The Trial Urban District Assessment (TUDA) is a government-sponsored study of student achievement in large urban school districts. TUDA gives a reading test scored from 0 to \(500 . \mathrm{A}\) score of 243 is a "basic" reading level and a score of 281 is "proficient." Scores for a random sample of 1470 eighth- graders in Atlanta had \(\bar{x}=240\) with standard deviation \(42.17 .^{24}\) (a) Calculate and interpret a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for the mean score of all Atlanta eighth-graders. (b) Based on your interval from part (a), is there good evidence that the mean for all Atlanta eighth-graders is less than the basic level? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(237.17, 242.83); Yes, the mean is likely below the basic level.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Given Information

We have a sample mean \(\bar{x} = 240\), sample standard deviation \(s = 42.17\), and sample size \(n = 1470\). We need to calculate a 99% confidence interval for the mean score.
02

Determine the Critical Value

For a 99% confidence interval and a large sample size, we use the \(z\) distribution. The critical value \(z^*\) for 99% confidence is approximately 2.576.
03

Calculate the Standard Error of the Mean

The standard error (SE) of the mean is calculated using the formula: \[ SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{42.17}{\sqrt{1470}} \approx 1.098 \]
04

Calculate the Margin of Error

The margin of error (ME) is calculated by multiplying the critical value by the standard error: \[ ME = z^* \times SE = 2.576 \times 1.098 \approx 2.830 \]
05

Find the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval is given by: \[ \bar{x} \pm ME = 240 \pm 2.830 = (237.17, 242.83) \]This means we are 99% confident that the true mean score of all Atlanta eighth-graders falls between 237.17 and 242.83.
06

Interpret the Confidence Interval

Since the basic reading level score is 243 and our confidence interval (237.17, 242.83) is entirely below this value, we have evidence to suggest that the mean score is less than the basic reading level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The Standard Error (SE) is a critical concept in statistics. It measures how much the sample mean (\(\bar{x} = 240\)) is expected to vary from the true population mean.

In simpler terms, SE provides insight into the accuracy of the sample mean when estimating the population mean. A smaller SE indicates a more accurate estimate.

To calculate the SE, we use the formula: \[ SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]where:
  • \( s = 42.17 \) is the sample's standard deviation, indicating data dispersion.
  • \( n = 1470 \) is the sample size.
Substituting the known values gives us\( SE \approx 1.098 \).

This result tells us that the sample mean is expected to vary by about 1.098 from the actual population mean, enhancing our confidence in the findings.
Margin of Error
The Margin of Error (ME) represents the range within which we can expect the true population mean to lie, considering a specific level of confidence.

It's calculated by multiplying the critical value (\(z^*\)) with the Standard Error (SE).

Using the formula:\[ ME = z^* \times SE \]where:
  • \( z^* \approx 2.576 \) is the critical value for a 99% confidence level.
  • \( SE \approx 1.098 \) represents the standard error.
Calculating gives us\( ME \approx 2.830 \).

This means that the sample mean could be off by about 2.830 units, high or low. Therefore, it allows statisticians to create a range (confidence interval) around the sample mean to estimate the population mean more accurately.
Critical Value
In statistical analysis, the Critical Value (\(z^*\)) plays a crucial role in determining the confidence interval. It reflects the level of confidence we have in our estimates. Higher levels of confidence result in larger critical values.

For a 99% confidence interval, the critical value for the Standard Normal Distribution is approximately\(2.576\).This figure is obtained from statistical tables that show the cut-off points (often called "z-scores") for almost any level of confidence.

In the context of our problem, using a 99% confidence level signifies that we are willing to accept about a 1% chance of error when estimating the population mean. The larger the critical value, the wider the margin of error, leading to a broader confidence interval.
Statistical Inference
Statistical inference is the process of using sample data to make generalizations about a larger population. It plays an essential part in understanding the confidence interval.

The underlying principle is that by examining a sample, we can infer characteristics of the broader population. For our example, we use statistical inference to estimate the mean reading score of all Atlanta eighth-graders.

The primary tools for making these inferences include:
  • The sample mean\(\bar{x}\), an estimate of the population mean.
  • The standard error, which provides insight into how much the sample mean is expected to vary.
  • The confidence interval, providing a range within which the true mean likely falls.
Through statistical inference, it's possible to make informed conclusions about a population based on the sample and quantify the reliability of these estimates by considering the confidence level, critical value, and margin of error.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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