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Mac or PC? A recent census at a major university revealed that \(40 \%\) of its students mainly used Macintosh computers (Macs). The rest mainly used PCs. At the time of the census, \(67 \%\) of the school's students were undergraduates. The rest were graduate students. In the census, \(23 \%\) of the respondents were graduate students who said that they used \(\mathrm{PCs}\) as their primary computers. Suppose we select a student at random from among those who were part of the census and learn that the student mainly uses a \(\mathrm{PC}\). Find the probability that this person is a graduate student. Show your work.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a student, who mainly uses a PC, is a graduate student is approximately 38.3%.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Probabilities

Let \( M \) represent students who primarily use Macs, and \( P \) represent students who primarily use PCs. Since 40% use Macs, \( P(M) = 0.4 \) and \( P(P) = 1 - P(M) = 0.6 \). Let \( U \) be the proportion of undergraduates, so \( P(U) = 0.67 \) and \( P(G) = 0.33 \) for graduate students. Given that 23% of total students are graduate students using PCs, \( P(G \text{ and } P) = 0.23 \).
02

Use Conditional Probability Formula

We want \( P(G | P) \), the probability that a student is a graduate given they use a PC. The formula for conditional probability is: \[ P(G | P) = \frac{P(G \text{ and } P)}{P(P)} \]
03

Calculate Total Probability for PC Users

The probability of being a PC user is split between undergraduates and graduates. Since we already have \( P(G \text{ and } P) = 0.23 \), let's find \( P(U \text{ and } P) = P(P) - P(G \text{ and } P) = 0.6 - 0.23 = 0.37 \). The probability \( P(P) \) is already given as 0.6.
04

Plug Values into Conditional Probability Formula

Insert the known values into the equation from Step 2: \[ P(G | P) = \frac{0.23}{0.6} = \frac{23}{60} \approx 0.3833 \]
05

Finalize the Probability

Thus, the probability that a student is a graduate given they primarily use a PC is about 0.383, or 38.3%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Bayes' Theorem
Bayes' Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability theory, often used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It allows us to calculate conditional probabilities, which are the likelihood of an event based on the occurrence of another event.

In the context of the given exercise, Bayes' Theorem is used to find the probability that a random student uses a PC and is a graduate student given their predominant computer choice. This calculation is essential when you're dealing with real-world scenarios where direct probability is difficult to assume without using indirect evidence.

The general formula for Bayes' Theorem is:
\[ P(A | B) = \frac{P(B | A) \cdot P(A)}{P(B)} \]

This formula helps us determine the posterior probability \( P(A | B) \), where \( A \) and \( B \) are two events, like being a graduate student and primarily using a PC. Here, \( P(A) \) is the prior probability of \( A \), \( P(B | A) \) is the likelihood, and \( P(B) \) is the marginal likelihood.
Joint Probability
Joint probability refers to the probability of two events occurring at the same time. It is extremely helpful in understanding complex probability scenarios when multiple events are interconnected. For our university scenario, the joint probability includes both the status of the student (graduate or undergraduate) and their computer usage preference (Mac or PC).

When the problem states that "23% of the respondents were graduate students who said they used PCs," it directly provides us with a joint probability. This indicates a combined likelihood of two specific characteristics: being a graduate student and preferring PCs, denoted as \( P(G \text{ and } P) = 0.23 \).

Joint probabilities are vital for breaking down complex conditional probabilities, allowing us to concentrate on how different probabilistic events intersect. They form a foundation for calculating conditional probabilities, giving us a more nuanced understanding of the data in question.
Graduate and Undergraduate Students
To solve the exercise, understanding the distribution of student types at the university is key. The problem specifies that 67% of the students are undergraduates and the remaining 33% are graduates.

This division helps in assessing how various probability scenarios might unfold. Such details can profoundly affect conditional probability calculations.

For instance, knowing 33% of the student body comprises graduate students allows us to use this statistic across various calculations. In our context, once conditional and joint probabilities are figured, percentages of student types directly influence the probability of any given student using a PC being an undergrad or a grad.

Understanding this demographic split between undergraduates and graduates provides the groundwork from which more complex probabilities are calculated and interpreted.
Computer Usage Statistics
Computer usage statistics in this exercise give insights into students' preferences, which directly affect the calculation of probabilities in this context.

The exercise specifies that 40% of the students prefer Macs, meaning 60% prefer PCs. Such information sets the stage for any analyses of student demographics and technology use.

These statistics allow us to isolate computer usage cases and examine them with respect to major and student types (undergraduate or graduate). By understanding the broader usage trends, we can delve deeper into conditional probabilities, like the probability of a PC user being a graduate student.

Effective usage of this data, when integrated with Bayes' Theorem, enables the precise calculation of probabilities based on computer preferences identified in the school survey. This clarification and separation of data points make conditional probability applications approachable and specific to the case at hand.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Preparing for the GMAT A company that offers courses to prepare students for the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) has the following information about its customers: \(20 \%\) are currently undergraduate students in business; \(15 \%\) are undergraduate students in other fields of study; \(60 \%\) are college graduates who are currently employed; and \(5 \%\) are college graduates who are not employed. Choose a customer at random. (a) What's the probability that the customer is currently an undergraduate? Which rule of probability did you use to find the answer? (b) What's the probability that the customer is not an undergraduate business student? Which rule of probability did you use to find the answer?

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