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The most common bet in craps is the "pass line." \(\mathrm{A}\) pass line bettor wins immediately if either a 7 or an 11 comes up on the first roll. This is called a natural. What is the probability of a natural? (a) \(2 / 36\) (c) \(8 / 36\) (e) \(20 / 36\) (b) \(6 / 36\) (d) \(12 / 36\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of a natural is (c) \(\frac{8}{36}\).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

In craps, a natural occurs when the first dice roll results in either a total of 7 or 11. We need to calculate how many outcomes result in a 7 or 11 out of the total possible outcomes when rolling two dice.
02

Identify Total Outcomes

When rolling two six-sided dice, each die has 6 faces, leading to a total of \(6 \times 6 = 36\) possible outcomes.
03

Calculate Outcomes for 7

Determine the dice combinations that can result in a sum of 7. These combinations are (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1), giving us 6 favorable outcomes.
04

Calculate Outcomes for 11

Determine the dice combinations that can result in a sum of 11. These combinations are (5,6) and (6,5), giving us 2 favorable outcomes.
05

Count Total Favorable Outcomes

Add the number of outcomes for getting a 7 and the number of outcomes for getting an 11: \(6 + 2 = 8\).
06

Calculate the Probability

The probability of rolling a natural (a sum of 7 or 11) is the number of favorable outcomes divided by the total number of possible outcomes: \(\frac{8}{36}\).
07

Simplify the Probability

Simplify the fraction \(\frac{8}{36}\) by dividing both the numerator and the denominator by their greatest common divisor, which is 4. The simplified form is \(\frac{2}{9}\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Craps
Craps is a popular dice game, often played in casinos, where players bet on the outcome of the roll, or a series of rolls, of two dice. Understanding how the game functions can make it not only more exciting but also can help you make better betting decisions.
The main objective is to predict the result of the dice roll. A variety of bets are possible, but one of the most common ones is the "pass line" bet. In this game, specific rules determine whether you win, lose, or continue playing depending on what the dice show after they are thrown. For someone new to the game, it can seem complex due to the different kinds of bets, but the core mechanics revolve around simple math and probability.
By getting familiar with these rules and outcomes, you increase your chances of making successful predictions and bets.
Dice Rolls
In the game of craps, two six-sided dice are used, which brings in the concept of probability tied to dice rolls. When we talk about rolling a pair of dice, each die having six faces, it means we have 36 possible outcomes. This is because each face of the first die can pair with any face of the second die, leading to calculations of probability and predictions based on these combinations.
The possible outcomes can be listed as combinations, such as (1,1), (1,2), ..., through to (6,6). Understanding these combinations allows you to better grasp which outcomes are more likely, and how those probabilities affect game scenarios. This basic understanding is crucial in predicting the likelihood of events in craps and similar games involving dice.
Favorable Outcomes
Favorable outcomes in probability refer to the event or set of events that you are interested in or might win from. In the context of craps, when a natural occurs, we need a sum of 7 or 11 from our two dice rolls.
  • A sum of 7 can be made from: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1), which totals 6 possible combinations.
  • A sum of 11 can be made from: (5,6), (6,5), totalling 2 possible combinations.

Therefore, there are 8 favorable outcomes that contribute to a "natural" roll. It's useful to count these outcomes clearly, as they directly determine the chances of winning the pass line bet instantly on the first roll. The key is to know how many successful ways you can achieve winning conditions.
Natural Probability
Natural probability in craps focuses on the chance of rolling a natural, specifically a total of 7 or 11 on the first roll. For this, we refer back to the favorable outcomes discussed earlier and compare them to all possible dice roll outcomes.
There are 36 possible combinations when rolling the two dice, as each die has 6 sides. If 8 of these are favorable (as calculated: 6 combinations for 7, 2 for 11), then the probability of rolling a natural is \ \(\frac{8}{36}\ \).
To simplify this probability, we divide both the numerator and the denominator by their greatest common divisor, which is 4. This leaves us with a natural probability of \ \(\frac{2}{9}\ \). Simplifying fractions is an essential step in ensuring you're working with the most straightforward math possible, making calculations clearer and easier to understand.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Suppose a loaded die has the following probability model: $$\begin{array}{lcccccc}\hline \text { 0utcome: } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 \\\\\text { Probability: } & 0.3 & 0.1 & 0.1 & 0.1 & 0.1 & 0.3 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ If this die is thrown and the top face shows an odd number, what is the probability that the die shows a l? \(\begin{array}{ll}\text { (a) } & 0.10\end{array}\) (b) 0.17 (c) 0.30 (d) 0.50 (e) 0.60

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