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Sampling senators The two-way table below describes the members of the U.S Senate in a recent year. $$\begin{array}{lcc}\hline & \text { Male } & \text { Female } \\\\\text { Democrats } & 47 & 13 \\\\\text { Republicans } & 36 & 4 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ If we select a U.S. senator at random, what's the probability that the senator is (a) a Democrat? (b) a female? (c) a female and a Democrat? (d) a female or a Democrat?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.6, (b) 0.17, (c) 0.13, (d) 0.64.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Total Number of Senators

First, we determine the total number of senators by summing all the members from each category in the table. We have 47 male Democrats, 13 female Democrats, 36 male Republicans, and 4 female Republicans. Thus, the total number is \(47 + 13 + 36 + 4 = 100\) senators.
02

Probability of Selecting a Democrat

To find the probability of selecting a Democrat, we add the number of male and female Democrats from the table: \(47 + 13 = 60\). The probability is the number of Democrats divided by the total number of senators: \( \frac{60}{100} = 0.6\).
03

Probability of Selecting a Female

Next, we calculate the probability of selecting a female senator. From the table, we have 13 female Democrats and 4 female Republicans: \(13 + 4 = 17\). The probability is \( \frac{17}{100} = 0.17\).
04

Probability of Selecting a Female and a Democrat

For a senator to be both female and a Democrat, we look at the cell corresponding to female Democrats: 13. The probability is \( \frac{13}{100} = 0.13\).
05

Probability of Selecting a Female or a Democrat

The probability of selecting a senator who is either female or a Democrat can be found using the formula for the union of two probabilities: \( P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \). Here, \(P(A)\) is the probability of a Democrat (0.6), \(P(B)\) is the probability of a female (0.17), and \(P(A \cap B)\) is the probability of a female and a Democrat (0.13). So, \( P(A \cup B) = 0.6 + 0.17 - 0.13 = 0.64 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Two-way table
A two-way table is a simple but useful tool to organize data that involves two categorical variables. In the context of our exercise, the two-way table shows the distribution of U.S. Senators by gender and political affiliation. This helps in visualizing and understanding the relationships between these categories. Here, the rows depict the political affiliation, split into Democrats and Republicans, and the columns represent gender, divided into males and females.
  • Rows: Represent Democrats and Republicans.
  • Columns: Represent Male and Female genders.
Each cell in the table holds the number of senators that belong to the particular category based on the intersection of the row and column, such as male Democrats. This structured format is helpful when calculating probabilities, like determining the likelihood of selecting a senator based on these characteristics.
Conditional probability
Conditional probability refers to the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is key in scenarios where specific conditions affect the outcome, helping assess the likelihood of an event under a defined condition. In this exercise, an example of conditional probability would be calculating the probability of picking a female senator given they are a Democrat. The formula for conditional probability is:\[ P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \]
  • P(A|B): Probability of event A occurring given event B is true.
  • P(A \cap B): Probability of both events A and B happening.
  • P(B): Probability of event B.
While the original data does not explicitly expect conditional calculations, understanding how to apply these principles would enhance decision-making in more complex scenarios.
Union of events
The union of events refers to the situation where at least one of the events occurs. In probability terms, it is the probability that at least one of two (or more) events happens. In this case, it's the event of selecting either a female senator or a Democrat, or both.The formula for the union of two events, A and B, is:\[ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \]
  • P(A \cup B): Probability of event A or event B or both occurring.
  • P(A): Probability of event A (choosing a Democrat, 0.6).
  • P(B): Probability of event B (choosing a female, 0.17).
  • P(A \cap B): Probability of both events A and B (choosing a female Democrat, 0.13).
This formula accounts for the overlap where the events both occur simultaneously, ensuring that this isn't double-counted. Understanding the concept of unions helps in navigating more complex probability questions.
Probability calculation
Probability calculation involves determining the likelihood of an event or a set of events occurring based on known data. In the exercise, we've calculated probabilities for various scenarios, such as selecting a Democrat, a female, a female Democrat, or either a female or a Democrat.The basic probability formula is:\[ P(E) = \frac{Number\ of\ Favorable\ Outcomes}{Total\ Number\ of\ Possible\ Outcomes} \]
  • Number of Favorable Outcomes: The count of outcomes that satisfy the event condition.
  • Total Number of Possible Outcomes: Total number of outcomes in the sample space (e.g., total senators).
Probability values range from 0 to 1, where 0 signifies impossibility and 1 signifies certainty. For example, the probability of selecting a Democrat (60 favorable outcomes out of 100 possible outcomes) is 0.6, illustrating a 60% chance. Accurately calculating these probabilities aids in understanding and predicting outcomes based on given data sets.

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