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Birds in the trees Researchers studied the behavior of birds that were searching for seeds and insects in an Oregon forest. In this forest, \(54 \%\) of the trees were Douglas firs, \(40 \%\) were ponderosa pines, and \(6 \%\) were other types of trees. At a randomly selected time during the day, the researchers observed 156 red-breasted nuthatches: 70 were seen in Douglas firs, 79 in ponderosa pines, and 7 in other types of trees. \(^{2}\) Do these data provide convincing evidence that nuthatches prefer particular types of trees when they're searching for seeds and insects?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Nuthatches have a preference for certain tree types.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

We will use a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to determine if there is a preference among the tree types. The null hypothesis ( H_0 ) is that nuthatches have no preference and the trees are chosen based on their proportional availability: 54% Douglas fir, 40% ponderosa pine, and 6% other trees. The alternative hypothesis ( H_a ) is that nuthatches prefer certain types of trees.
02

Calculate Expected Counts

If nuthatches have no preference, we expect the number of birds caught in each tree type to follow the forest distributions: \( 0.54 \times 156 = 84.24 \) for Douglas firs, \( 0.40 \times 156 = 62.4 \) for ponderosa pines, and \( 0.06 \times 156 = 9.36 \) for other trees.
03

Compute Chi-Square Statistic

To calculate the chi-square statistic, use the formula: \[\chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O_i - E_i)^2}{E_i}\]where \(O_i\) is the observed count and \(E_i\) is the expected count. For Douglas firs: \(\frac{(70 - 84.24)^2}{84.24} = 2.446\), for ponderosa pines: \(\frac{(79 - 62.4)^2}{62.4} = 4.193\), and for other trees: \(\frac{(7 - 9.36)^2}{9.36} = 0.595\). Thus, the chi-square statistic is \(\chi^2 = 2.446 + 4.193 + 0.595 = 7.234\).
04

Determine Degrees of Freedom

Degrees of freedom in a chi-square test for goodness of fit are calculated as \(df = \ ext{{number of categories}} - 1\). Here, we have 3 categories (Douglas firs, ponderosa pines, other trees), so \(df = 3 - 1 = 2\).
05

Find the P-Value

Using a chi-square distribution table or calculator with \(df = 2\) and \(\chi^2 = 7.234\), we find the p-value associated with this statistic. The p-value is approximately 0.026 when comparing to the critical value for a 5% significance level (\(\chi^2 = 5.99\)).
06

Conclusion

Since the p-value of 0.026 is less than the 0.05 significance level, we reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to suggest that nuthatches prefer certain types of trees when searching for seeds and insects.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is like making an educated guess and then checking if evidence supports it. When researchers are curious about whether birds like particular trees, they set up a hypothesis test. In this process, two opposing hypotheses are made:
  • Null Hypothesis (H_0): Assumes that there is no special preference among the types of trees. The birds choose trees in proportion to their availability.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (H_a): Suggests that the birds do have tree type preferences.
By calculating probabilities and comparing them, researchers decide which hypothesis is more likely based on the evidence. This helps in understanding bird behavior better.
Chi-Square Statistic
The chi-square statistic is a fancy way of measuring how far off your observations are from what you'd expect if everything were random. In our bird example, researchers first observed how many birds were in each type of tree. Then, they calculated how many birds should have been in each tree, assuming no preference.To compute the chi-square statistic, the formula used is:\[\chi^2 = \sum \frac{(O_i - E_i)^2}{E_i}\]where \(O_i\) is the observed number of birds in a type of tree, and \(E_i\) is the expected number. The larger the chi-square statistic, the more evidence there might be of a preference.
Expected Counts
Expected counts predict how many birds would be found on each type of tree if they had no preferences. These numbers are calculated based on the proportion of each tree type in the forest.In our example:
  • For Douglas firs, we expect \(0.54 \times 156 = 84.24\) birds.
  • For ponderosa pines, \(0.40 \times 156 = 62.4\) birds.
  • For other trees, \(0.06 \times 156 = 9.36\) birds.
These expected counts form a basis for comparison – if the actual counts are wildly different, it may suggest a preference.
P-Value
The p-value is like a percentage that tells us how surprising our results are, assuming no preference. It helps answer the question: "If the null hypothesis were true, how likely are these results?" A small p-value (typically less than 0.05) indicates that the observed results are rare under the null hypothesis, suggesting that tree preference might exist. In our example, the calculated p-value was 0.026, below the usual significance level of 0.05. Consequently, the null hypothesis was rejected, indicating that the birds might have a preference.
Degrees of Freedom
Degrees of freedom are like the number of options available for the data to vary. They're crucial for interpreting the chi-square statistic correctly. In general, the formula for determining degrees of freedom in a chi-square test is:\[df = \text{number of categories} - 1\]In this example, since there are three types (categories) of trees, degrees of freedom would be \(3 - 1 = 2\). This number helps in finding the critical values from chi-square distribution tables, which are then used to calculate the p-value.

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