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Taking the train According to New Jersey Transit, the 8:00 a.m. weekday train from Princeton to New York City has a 90% chance of arriving on time. To test this claim, an auditor chooses 6 weekdays at random during a month to ride this train. The train arrives late on 2 of those days. Does the auditor have convincing evidence that the company鈥檚 claim isn鈥檛 true? Design and carry out a simulation to answer this question. Follow the four-step process.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The auditor lacks compelling evidence that the company's claim is false.

Step by step solution

01

Step 1. Given Information    

The claim that there is a chance 90%that the train will arrive on schedule. Over the course of a month, a sample of arrival times is taken on 6random weekdays. The following is the time of the train's arrival based on the sample taken: 1-26=46=66.6%

02

Step 2. Concept Used  

0We can't foresee the outcomes of a chance process, yet they have a regular distribution over a large number of repetitions. According to the law of large numbers, the fraction of times a specific event occurs in numerous repetitions approaches a single number. The likelihood of a chance outcome is its long-run relative frequency. A probability is a number between (never happens) and 1 (happens frequently) (always occurs).

03

Step 3. Explanation 

We should, in order to simulate, Use two-digit numbers instead of three-digit numbers. The train is on time if the numbers 00to 89are used. Allow the numbers 90to 99to symbolise the train's lateness. Pick six numbers at random, with no repeat permitted. Count how many times the train has been late. Rep this simulation as many times as you like. You will most likely get a report indicating that the train is running late between 0 and 2 times. As a result, they lack persuasive evidence that the company's claim is false.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Liar, liar! Sometimes police use a lie detector (also known as a polygraph) to help determine whether a suspect is telling the truth. A lie detector test isn鈥檛 foolproof鈥攕ometimes it suggests that a person is lying when they鈥檙e actually telling the truth (a 鈥渇alse positive鈥). Other times, the test says that the suspect is being truthful when the person is actually lying (a 鈥渇alse negative鈥). For one brand of polygraph machine, the probability of a false positive is 0.08.
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Scrabble In the game of Scrabble, each player begins by drawing 7 tiles from a bag containing 100 files. There are 42 vowels, 56 consonants, and 2 blank tiles in the bag. Chait chooses her 7 tiles and is surprised to discover that all of them are vowels. We can use a simulation to see if this result is likely to happen

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(d) In 1000 repetitions of the simulation, there were 2 times when all 7 tiles were vowels. What conclusion would you draw?

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