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We want to be rich In a recent year, 73% of first-year college students responding to a national survey identified 鈥渂eing very well-off financially鈥 as an important personal goal. A state university finds that 132 of an SRS of 200 of its first-year students say that this goal is important. Is there good evidence that the proportion of all first-year students at this university who think being very well-off is important differs from the national value, 73%? Carry out a test at the \(\alpha=\) 0.05 significance level to help answer this question.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, there is significant evidence that the university's proportion differs from 73%.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

First, we define the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis, \( H_0 \), states that the proportion of first-year students at this university who consider being well-off financially as important is equal to the national proportion: \( H_0 : p = 0.73 \). The alternative hypothesis, \( H_a \), states that the university's proportion differs from the national proportion: \( H_a : p eq 0.73 \).
02

Calculate the Sample Proportion

The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated as the number of students who consider the goal important divided by the total number of students surveyed: \( \hat{p} = \frac{132}{200} = 0.66 \).
03

Check Conditions for Normality

We need to confirm that the sample size is large enough for the sampling distribution of \( \hat{p} \) to be approximately normal. We use the conditions: \( np \geq 10 \) and \( n(1-p) \geq 10 \). For \( p = 0.73 \) and \( n = 200 \): \( np = 200 \times 0.73 = 146 \) and \( n(1-p) = 200 \times 0.27 = 54 \). Both conditions are met.
04

Calculate the Test Statistic

The test statistic for a proportion is calculated using the formula: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}} \] Substituting the values: \[ z = \frac{0.66 - 0.73}{\sqrt{\frac{0.73 \times 0.27}{200}}} = \frac{-0.07}{0.03204} \approx -2.1846 \]
05

Determine the Critical Value or P-Value

We compare the test statistic to standard normal distribution (Z-distribution) values. For a two-tailed test at \( \alpha = 0.05 \), the critical z-values are \( \pm 1.96 \). The calculated \( z \approx -2.1846 \) falls outside the range \([-1.96, 1.96]\), indicating significance.
06

Conclusion

Since the test statistic \(-2.1846\) is less than \(-1.96\), it falls in the rejection region. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence at the \( \alpha = 0.05 \) level to conclude that the proportion of first-year students at this university who think being well-off financially is important significantly differs from the national proportion of 0.73.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In statistical hypothesis testing, the **Null Hypothesis** is a crucial starting point. It is a formal statement proposing that there is no significant effect or difference in the context being studied.

For the given problem, our null hypothesis is structured around the proportion of students who see financial well-being as important. We propose that this proportion is equivalent to the national survey figure of 73%.

- **Notation**: The null hypothesis is usually denoted by the symbol \( H_0 \). - **Expression**: In this case, it is written as \( H_0 : p = 0.73 \).

This hypothesis is essential because it provides a benchmark against which we compare observational data. We continue to assume the null hypothesis is true unless there is significant evidence to refute it based on statistical testing.
Alternative Hypothesis
The **Alternative Hypothesis** provides a contrasting statement to the null hypothesis, suggesting that there is indeed an effect or difference.

In the context of our problem, the alternative hypothesis suggests that the proportion of students at the specific university 鈥 who consider being financially well-off important 鈥 **differs** from the national average of 73%. This is expressed as:

- **Notation**: The alternative hypothesis is represented by \( H_a \).- **Expression**: For this scenario, the statement is \( H_a : p eq 0.73 \).

This assumes a two-tailed test since we are interested in checking if the university's proportion deviates in either direction from the national figure. The establishment of an alternative hypothesis is essential in statistical testing, as it specifies the direction and nature of the analysis.
Significance Level
The **Significance Level** in hypothesis testing is a predetermined threshold used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. Establishing this level is vital as it dictates the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs when the null hypothesis is incorrectly dismissed.

Here are some key details:
  • The significance level is denoted by \( \alpha \).
  • Commonly used significance levels include 0.05, 0.01, and 0.10.
In our case, the significance level is set at \( \alpha = 0.05 \).

This means we accept a 5% risk of concluding that a difference exists when there actually is none. The critical value for a two-tailed test with this significance level spans the Z-distribution values of approximately -1.96 and +1.96. The significance level fundamentally dictates how rigorous the test conditions are.
Sample Proportion
The **Sample Proportion** is an essential component in hypothesis testing because it offers an estimate of a population parameter based on a sample drawn from the population.

For the exercise at hand, we calculate the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) by dividing the number of favorable responses (students who value becoming well-off) by the total number of surveyed students.

Let's break it down:
  • Total students surveyed: 200
  • Students valuing financial well-being: 132
  • Sample proportion calculation: \( \hat{p} = \frac{132}{200} = 0.66 \)
The sample proportion \( \hat{p} = 0.66 \) is a point estimate of the true population proportion. It plays a critical role in hypothesis testing as it provides the observed value to be compared against the null hypothesis using statistical tests, such as calculating the Z-test statistic in this scenario.

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