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Vigorous exercise helps people live several years longer (on average). Whether mild activities like slow walking extend life is not clear. Suppose that the added life expectancy from regular slow walking is just 2 months. A statistical test is more likely to find a significant increase in mean life expectancy if (a) it is based on a very large random sample and a 5% significance level is used. (b) it is based on a very large random sample and a 1% significance level is used. (c) it is based on a very small random sample and a 5% significance level is used. (d) it is based on a very small random sample and a 1% significance level is used. (e) the size of the sample doesn鈥檛 have any effect on the significance of the test.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) A very large random sample with a 5% significance level.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Hypothesis Test

In this problem, we are testing whether slow walking increases life expectancy by an average of 2 months. We have to determine under which condition the test is more likely to find a significant difference. A statistical test examines the null hypothesis that there is no effect (the increase in life expectancy is zero) versus the alternative hypothesis that there is an effect (life expectancy increases by 2 months).
02

Impact of Sample Size

The result of a statistical test is more reliable when it is based on a larger sample size. Larger sample sizes provide more accurate estimations of the population parameter, increasing the chance of finding a statistically significant result if there is indeed an effect.
03

Significance Level Explored

The significance level (alpha) indicates the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true (Type I error). A 5% significance level means there is a 5% risk of concluding there is an effect when there isn't. A 1% significance level means there is a 1% risk. A test is more likely to find a significant result with a higher significance level due to increased allowance for Type I error.
04

Evaluating the Options

Combining the effects from Steps 2 and 3, we find that option (a) (large sample size with 5% significance level) is better than (b) because a higher significance level (5%) is more likely to detect an effect than a lower level (1%), assuming the same sample size. Options (c) and (d) are less effective since smaller sample sizes reduce the test's power. Option (e) is incorrect because sample size does affect test outcome.
05

Conclusion

The test is more likely to find a significant increase in mean life expectancy when it uses a very large random sample and a 5% significance level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
When conducting statistical tests, one critical element to consider is the sample size. The sample size refers to the number of observations or data points collected for the study.
A larger sample size provides a more reliable estimation of the population parameters. It reduces errors and increases the power of the test.

The concept of power in a statistical test is the probability that the test correctly identifies a true effect or difference when one exists. With larger samples, the variability in the data reduces, leading to more precise and confident conclusions.

Here鈥檚 why sample size is so vital:
  • It determines the accuracy of the results: Larger samples yield more accurate estimations.
  • It affects statistical power: Larger samples increase the chance of detecting true effects.
  • It influences the reliability of findings: More data points lead to more robust conclusions.
In the context of our exercise, the importance of sample size is clear. A very large sample would be more suitable than a small one to test whether slow walking truly impacts life expectancy.
Significance Level
The significance level, often denoted by alpha (\( \alpha \)), is a threshold used to decide whether the results of a statistical test are meaningful. Commonly set at 5% (0.05) or 1% (0.01), it represents the probability of committing a Type I error, which is falsely rejecting the null hypothesis.
This level functions as a benchmark in hypothesis testing. It determines how much risk you are willing to take of incorrectly claiming a significant effect where there is none.

Here's an overview of significance level:
  • 5% Significance Level: This means there is a 5% risk of concluding there is an effect when there is not. It is more lenient and used when a higher risk of error is acceptable.
  • 1% Significance Level: A stricter threshold, only allowing a 1% risk of false positives, thus requiring stronger evidence to claim an effect.
  • Relation to Test Sensitivity: The higher the significance level, the more likely you are to detect a significant result, but also more prone to errors.
In our exercise, a 5% significance level, combined with a large sample size, would make it easier to identify any genuine increases in life expectancy due to slow walking.
Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis (\( H_0 \)) is a fundamental part of statistical testing. It assumes that there is no effect or difference and serves as a starting point for statistical comparison. In hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis essentially claims that any observed effect is due to chance, not a real intervention or change.

For example, in our case, the null hypothesis would be that slow walking does not increase life expectancy at all.

Key aspects of the null hypothesis:
  • Initial Assumption: It posits that there is no change or effect.
  • Point of Refutation: The goal of testing is often to provide evidence against the null hypothesis.
  • Role in Decision-Making: The decision to reject or fail to reject the null hypothesis depends on the statistical evidence.
Rejecting the null hypothesis in our exercise would mean finding significant proof that slow walking indeed extends life expectancy.
Alternative Hypothesis
Paired with the null hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis (\( H_1 \)), which expresses what we aim to support with our data. The alternative hypothesis suggests there is an effect or a difference. It counters the null hypothesis by proposing that slow walking does increase life expectancy by a particular amount.

In hypothesis testing, the alternative hypothesis represents the research question we are actively exploring.

Let's unpack the alternative hypothesis:
  • Countering the Null: It is framed to capture any evidence contrary to the null hypothesis.
  • Positive Assertion: States the existence of an effect or difference.
  • Core of Research: This is what the research generally seeks to prove or support.
The success of the statistical test depends on showing that the data aligns more closely with the alternative hypothesis than with the null hypothesis. In our scenario, supporting the alternative hypothesis means demonstrating that slow walking significantly increases life expectancy.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

After once again losing a football game to the archrival, a college鈥檚 alumni association conducted a survey to see if alumni were in favor of firing the coach. An SRS of 100 alumni from the population of all living alumni was taken, and 64 of the alumni in the sample were in favor of firing the coach. Suppose you wish to see if a majority of living alumni are in favor of firing the coach. The appropriate test statistic is (a) \(z=\frac{0.64-0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.64(0.36)}{100}}}\) (d) \(z=\frac{0.64-0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.64(0.36)}{64}}}\) (b) \(t=\frac{0.64-0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.64(0.36)}{100}}} \quad\) (e) \(z=\frac{0.5-0.64}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5(0.5)}{100}}}\) (c) \(z=\frac{0.64-0.5}{\sqrt{\frac{0.5(0.5)}{100}}}\)

Two-sided test The one-sample \(t\) statistic from a sample of \(n=25\) observations for the two-sided test of $$ \begin{array}{l}{H_{0} : \mu=64} \\ {H_{a} : \mu \neq 64}\end{array} $$ has the value t 1.12. (a) Find the P-value for this test using (i) Table B and (ii) your calculator. What conclusion would you draw at the 5% significance level? At the 1% significance level? (b) Redo part (a) using an alternative hypothesis of \(H_{a} : \mu<64 .\)

Slow response times by paramedics, firefighters, and policemen can have serious consequences for accident victims. In the case of life-threatening injuries, victims generally need medical attention within 8 minutes of the accident. Several cities have begun to monitor emergency response times. In one such city, the mean response time to all accidents involving life- threatening injuries last year was \(\mu=6.7\) minutes. Emergency personnel arrived within 8 minutes after 78\(\%\) of all calls involving life-threatening injuries last year. The city manager shares this information and encourages these first responders to 鈥渄o better.鈥 At the end of the year, the city manager selects an SRS of 400 calls involving life-threatening injuries and examines the response times. Awful accidents (a) State hypotheses for a significance test to determine whether first responders are arriving within 8 minutes of the call more often. Be sure to define the parameter of interest. (b) Describe a Type I error and a Type II error in this setting and explain the consequences of each. (c) Which is more serious in this setting: a Type I error or a Type II error? Justify your answer. (d) If you sustain a life-threatening injury due to a vehicle accident, you want to receive medical treatment as quickly as possible. Which of the two significance tests \(-H_{0} : \mu=6.7\) versus \(H_{a} : \mu<6.7\) or the one from part (a) of this exercise - would you be more interested in? Justify your answer.

Sampling shoppers A marketing consultant observes 50 consecutive shoppers at a supermarket, recording how much each shopper spends in the store. Explain why it would not be wise to use these data to carry out a significance test about the mean amount spent by all shoppers at this supermarket.

Women in math (5.3) Of the 16,701 degrees in mathematics given by U.S. colleges and universities in a recent year, 73% were bachelor鈥檚 degrees, 21% were master鈥檚 degrees, and the rest were doctorates. Moreover, women earned 48% of the bachelor鈥檚 degrees, 42% of the master鈥檚 degrees, and 29% of the doctorates. (a) How many of the mathematics degrees given in this year were earned by women? Justify your answer. (b) Are the events 鈥渄egree earned by a woman鈥 and 鈥渄egree was a master鈥檚 degree鈥 independent? Justify your answer using appropriate probabilities. (c) If you choose 2 of the 16,701 mathematics degrees at random, what is the probability that at least 1 of the 2 degrees was earned by a woman? Show your work.

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