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Election Polls. In response to the question "If the 2016 presidential elections were being held today, would you vote for Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump?" the New York Times reported the result as \(43 \%\) for Hilary Clinton and \(39 \%\) for Donald J. Trump on July 7, 2016. This result was described as a "National Polling Average." Here are some details on how the average was computed: The New York Times polling averages use all polls currently listed in The Huffington Post's polling database. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages, and polls with partisan sponsors are excluded. 37 a. Why do you think the surveyors gave greater weight to polls with larger sample sizes? b. Why should more recent polls be given greater weight? What population were the surveyors interested in on July 7, 2016, and how does that population continue to change over the election period? c. Why were polls with partisan sponsors excluded?

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Larger Sample Sizes

Polls with larger sample sizes are given greater weight because they tend to provide more reliable and accurate estimates of the true population parameters. This is due to the law of large numbers, which states that as the number of observations increases, the sample mean will tend to get closer to the population mean. Therefore, larger sample sizes reduce sampling error and increase the confidence in the poll's results.

02

Importance of Recent Polls

Recent polls are given greater weight because they are likely to reflect the current opinions of the population more accurately. Public opinion can change over time due to various factors such as news events, debates, and political campaigns. On July 7, 2016, the surveyors were interested in the opinions of eligible voters at that time, and the population's opinions can shift leading up to the election day, making newer data more relevant.

03

Exclusion of Partisan-Sponsored Polls

Polls with partisan sponsors are excluded to ensure impartiality and to avoid bias that might be introduced by organizations with a specific political agenda. Partisan sponsors may influence the poll design, question wording, or sampling methods to produce results favorable to their political objectives. Excluding such polls helps maintain the objectivity and credibility of the polling average.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size

In the world of election polls, sample size plays a crucial role. The basic idea is that a poll with a larger sample size can give us a more accurate picture of the public's opinion. This accuracy is backed by the law of large numbers. This law tells us that as you increase the number of observations, the average value (or mean) of your sample will get closer to the true average of the population.
This means when you have more data points, your results become more reliable. With a larger sample, the random sampling errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to a truer reflection of public opinion.

• Larger samples reduce variability and instability in results.
• They enhance the likelihood that the sample accurately represents the population as a whole.
• Especially in national polls, a large sample size accounts for diverse opinions across different groups.

This is why poll results from larger sample sizes are often given greater weight—it's about ensuring more dependable and robust estimates.

Public Opinion

Public opinion is somewhat like a snapshot in time. It refers to the views prevalent among the general public at a specific moment. For pollsters, capturing this snapshot as accurately as possible is essential. Several factors can influence public opinion over time, such as:

• News and media coverage
• Political campaigns and debates
• Social and economic events

Because public opinion shifts with events and new information, recent polls are typically given more weight in national polling averages. They are assumed to reflect a more current and relevant perspective.
In the context of the 2016 elections, for instance, pollsters were particularly interested in the opinions of voters on July 7, 2016, as these would reflect the most up-to-date sentiment leading into the election. The closer a poll is to the election date, the more likely it is to reflect the actual vote, hence the preference for recent data.

Polling Bias

Polling bias occurs when a poll's results are skewed, not truly representing the public's opinion. One common source of polling bias is the influence of partisan sponsors. Partisan sponsors are organizations or individuals with a specific political agenda. Here's why partisan-sponsored polls can be biased:

• The questions could be framed in a leading way to favor a particular answer.
• The poll's sampling methods might be designed to include more of one type of respondent.
• Results might be intentionally or unintentionally reported in a biased manner.

To ensure impartial and unbiased outcomes, polls with partisan sponsors are typically excluded from national polling averages. This exclusion aims to safeguard the objectivity and fairness of the poll's results, providing a more reliable indicator of the true public sentiment.