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The Medical College Admission Test. The Normal distribution with mean \(\mu=500.9\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=10.6\) is a good description of the total score on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). \(\underline{10}\) This is a continuous probability model for the score of a randomly chosen student. Call the score of a randomly chosen student \(X\) for short. a. Write the event "the student chosen has a score of 510 or higher" in terms of \(X\). b. Find the probability of this event.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Probability that a student scores 510 or higher is approximately 0.1955.

Step by step solution

01

Define the event

The event that we are interested in is "the student chosen has a score of 510 or higher." We define this event in terms of the random variable \(X\) as follows: \(X \geq 510\).
02

Standardize the variable

Since \(X\) follows a normal distribution with mean \(\mu = 500.9\) and standard deviation \(\sigma = 10.6\), we standardize \(X\) to convert it into a standard normal distribution \(Z\). The standard score \(z\) is calculated using the formula: \[z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\] Substituting the given values, \[z = \frac{510 - 500.9}{10.6}\].
03

Calculate the z-score

Calculate the \(z\)-score: \[z = \frac{510 - 500.9}{10.6} = \frac{9.1}{10.6} \approx 0.8585\]. This \(z\)-score corresponds to the event \(X \geq 510\).
04

Use the standard normal distribution table

To find the probability \(P(Z \geq 0.8585)\), we use the standard normal distribution table. Typically, the table provides \(P(Z \leq z)\), so we need to find \(P(Z \geq 0.8585) = 1 - P(Z \leq 0.8585)\).
05

Determine the probability

From the standard normal distribution table, \(P(Z \leq 0.8585) \approx 0.8045\). Therefore, \(P(Z \geq 0.8585) = 1 - 0.8045 = 0.1955\). Thus, the probability that a randomly chosen student scores 510 or higher is approximately \(0.1955\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a special type of normal distribution that has a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This is often referred to as the 'z-distribution'. It is a convenient way to describe how values are spread in many real-world data sets that are symmetrically distributed around a mean.

When we standardize a normal distribution to create a standard normal distribution, we can better understand how individual data points relate to the average by converting them to 'z-scores'. These z-scores indicate how many standard deviations a particular score or value is from the mean. This transformation makes it easier to calculate probabilities and compare different datasets.

To use the standard normal distribution effectively, a standard normal distribution table, also known as the "z-table", is used. This table lists the probability of a z-score being less than or equal to a given value, allowing us to calculate the likelihood of a score occurring within a particular range in a standardized dataset.
z-score Calculation
The z-score calculation is crucial for standardizing a normally distributed variable. To calculate a z-score, you take the difference between the value of interest and the mean of the dataset, and divide this by the standard deviation.

The formula is given as:\[z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}\]where:
  • \(X\) is the individual data point or score,
  • \(\mu\) is the mean of the population,
  • \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
In the context of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), we had to determine the z-score for a score of 510, with a mean of 500.9 and a standard deviation of 10.6.

By plugging in these values into the formula, the z-score was found to be approximately 0.8585. This score tells us how far and in what direction the score of 510 deviates from the average score, in standard deviation units.
Probability Calculation
Once we have our z-score, we use it to calculate the probability of observing a score equal to or greater than a specific value, in this case, 510 or higher on the MCAT. Probability calculations in a standard normal distribution involve the use of a z-table.

The z-table provides the cumulative probability of a z-score being less than or equal to a given value. To find the probability for our specific case, where we want to find scores higher than 510, we calculate:

\[P(Z \geq 0.8585) = 1 - P(Z \leq 0.8585)\]From the z-table, we find that \(P(Z \leq 0.8585)\) is approximately 0.8045. Therefore, the probability of a student scoring 510 or higher is:

\[P(Z \geq 0.8585) = 1 - 0.8045 = 0.1955\]This result means there's about a 19.55% chance that a randomly selected student will score 510 or above.
Continuous Probability Model
A continuous probability model is a statistical model that deals with continuous random variables. These are variables that can take an infinite number of possible values in a given range. The normal distribution is an example of a continuous probability model since it describes probabilities for a continuous variable.

In this model, probabilities are calculated over intervals rather than distinct points. For instance, you can't directly find the probability of a continuous variable having an exact value, but you can calculate the probability of it falling within a particular range.

Using the MCAT score as an example, the score is considered a continuous variable, and the normal distribution describes the probability of various score ranges occurring. In defining the event of a student scoring 510 or higher, we recognize the underlying continuous nature of the score data. The use of the continuous probability model aids us in making precise probability assessments and understanding score distributions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Who Takes the GMAT? In many settings, the "rules of probability" are just basic facts about percentages. The Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) website provides the following information about the geographic region of citizenship of those who took the test in 2018: \(1.9 \%\) were from Africa; \(0.3 \%\) were from Australia and the Pacific Islands; \(2.4 \%\) were from Canada; \(14.3 \%\) were from Central and South Asia; \(36.1 \%\) were from East and Southeast Asia; \(1.7 \%\) were from Eastern Europe; \(3.2 \%\) were from Mexico, the Caribbean, and Latin America; \(2.2 \%\) were from the Middle East; \(30.3 \%\) were from the United States; and \(7.6 \%\) were from Western Europe. 4 a. What percentage of those who took the test in 2018 were from the Americas (either Canada, the United States, Mexico, the Caribbean, or Latin America)? Which rule of probability did you use to find the answer? b. What percentage of those who took the test in 2018 were from some other region than the United States? Which rule of probability did you use to find the answer?

LeBron's Free Throws. In recent years, the basketball player LeBron James makes about \(70 \%\) of his free throws over an entire season. Use the Probability applet or statistical software to simulate 100 free throws shot by a player who has probability \(0.70\) of making each shot. (In most software, the key phrase to look for is "Bernoulli trials." This is the technical term for independent trials with Yes/No outcomes. Our outcomes here are "Hit" and "Miss.") a. What percentage of the 100 shots did he hit? b. Examine the sequence of hits and misses. How long was the longest run of shots made? Of shots missed? (Sequences of random outcomes often show runs longer than our intuition thinks likely.)

Sample Space. Choose a student at random from a large statistics class. Describe a sample space \(S\) for each of the following. (In some cases, you may have some freedom in specifying \(S .)\) a. Does the student have a pet or not? b. What is the student's height, in meters? c. What are the last three digits of the student's cell phone number? d. What is the student's birth month?

Will You Be in a Crash? The probability that a randomly chosen driver will be involved in a car crash in the next year is about \(0.051 . \underline{13}\) This is based on the proportion of millions of drivers who have crashes. a. What do you think is your own probability of being in a crash in the next year? This is a personal probability. b. Give some reasons why your personal probability might be a more accurate prediction of your "true chance" of being in a crash than the probability for a random driver. c. Almost everyone says their personal probability is lower than the random driver probability. Why do you think this is true?

You read in a book on poker that the probability of being dealt a straight in a five-card poker hand is \(1 / 255\). This means that a. if you deal millions of poker hands, the fraction of them that contain a straight will be very close to \(1 / 255\). b. if you deal 255 poker hands, exactly one of them will contain a straight. c. if you deal 25,500 poker hands, exactly 100 of them will contain a straight.

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