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91Ó°ÊÓ

LeBron's Free Throws. In recent years, the basketball player LeBron James makes about \(70 \%\) of his free throws over an entire season. Use the Probability applet or statistical software to simulate 100 free throws shot by a player who has probability \(0.70\) of making each shot. (In most software, the key phrase to look for is "Bernoulli trials." This is the technical term for independent trials with Yes/No outcomes. Our outcomes here are "Hit" and "Miss.") a. What percentage of the 100 shots did he hit? b. Examine the sequence of hits and misses. How long was the longest run of shots made? Of shots missed? (Sequences of random outcomes often show runs longer than our intuition thinks likely.)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Hit percentage is 72%. Longest run of hits is 5; misses is 3.

Step by step solution

01

Set Up the Simulation

We need to simulate shooting 100 free throws, each with a 70% chance of being a 'Hit.' This requires setting up a Bernoulli trial with success probability = 0.7 for 100 trials in statistical software.
02

Run the Simulation

Using the Bernoulli trial setup, run the simulation to generate a sample of 100 outcomes. Each trial will result in a 'Hit' with a probability of 0.7 and 'Miss' with a probability of 0.3.
03

Calculate the Percentage of Hits

Count the number of 'Hit' outcomes in our simulated data. Let's say there are 72 hits. The percentage of shots hit is calculated by \( \frac{\text{Number of Hits}}{\text{Total Shots}} \times 100 \% \).
04

Determine the Longest Run of Hits

Examine the sequence for consecutive 'Hit' outcomes. Identify the longest consecutive sequence of hits. If the longest streak is 5, then the longest run is 5 hits.
05

Determine the Longest Run of Misses

Similarly, examine the sequence for consecutive 'Miss' outcomes. Identify the longest consecutive sequence of misses. If the longest streak is 3, then the longest run is 3 misses.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Simulation
Simulating probability allows us to experiment with different scenarios without needing to conduct real-life trials. In our exercise, we're simulating LeBron's free throws, using software to perform what are known as Bernoulli trials. Each trial in this simulation results in one of two outcomes: Hit or Miss. This makes it a perfect candidate for computer simulations.

These tools simulate each trial based on the probability of the event occurring, here it being LeBron making a shot. The simulation gives us a sequence of outcomes that help in understanding real-world situations and predictions. These simulations are easy to set up and can be done with any statistical software that supports Bernoulli trials with a given probability.
Statistics Education
Learning about probability through simulations helps develop statistical literacy. It's an essential skill needed in solving problems like the one involving LeBron's free throws. By visualizing trials and outcomes, students can see theory in action and better understand the statistical concepts at play.

Exercises like these bolster comprehension of different statistical methods and concepts such as probability distributions and pattern recognition. Working through simulations encourages critical reasoning and enhances decision-making skills by illustrating how results might vary due to randomness.
Random Outcomes
Random outcomes are a fundamental concept in probability. In the context of LeBron's free throws, each individual throw is independent and has randomness associated with it. It either results in a Hit or Miss. Despite having a probability of success (70% for a Hit), each outcome is influenced by chance.
  • Randomness plays a key role in determining the variety of results one might see in the simulation runs.
  • The patterns of outcomes, including noted sequences or runs of hits or misses, also emerge from this randomness.
  • Such sequences, particularly "runs" of success or failure, often appear longer or shorter than intuition might suggest, highlighting the unpredictability of random processes.
Independent Trials
In probability and statistics, understanding the concept of independent trials is crucial. Each trial in LeBron's free throw simulation is independent, meaning the outcome of one trial does not affect the others. Each throw stands alone, maintaining a consistent probability of hitting or missing.

Independent trials are a core feature of Bernoulli processes, and recognizing this helps in accurately interpreting simulation results. This concept aids in comprehending the nature of random sequences we observe, supporting deeper insights into patterns, such as why certain "runs" of hits or misses occur, seemingly contrary to our expectations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In a table of random digits such as Table \(B\), each digit is equally likely to be any of \(0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8\), or 9 . What is the probability that a digit in the table is a 7 ? a. \(1 / 9\) b. \(1 / 10\) c. \(9 / 10\)

Choose a common fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster at random. Call the length of the thorax (where the wings and legs attach) \(Y\). The random variable \(Y\) has the Normal distribution with mean \(\mu=0.800\) millimeter \((\mathrm{mm})\) and standard deviation \(\sigma=0.078 \mathrm{~mm}\). The probability \(P(Y>1)\) that the fly you choose has a thorax more than \(1 \mathrm{~mm}\) long is about a. \(0.995 .\) b. \(0.5\). c. \(0.005\).

How Many Cups of Coffee? Choose an adult age 18 or over in the United States at random and ask, "How many cups of coffee do you drink on average per day?" Call the response \(X\) for short. Based on a large sample survey, here is a probability model for the answer you will get: 8 \begin{tabular}{|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline Number & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 or more \\ \hline Probability & \(0.36\) & \(0.26\) & \(0.19\) & \(0.08\) & \(0.11\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} a. Verify that this is a valid finite probability model. b. Describe the event \(X<4\) in words. What is \(P(X<4)\) ? c. Express the event "have at least one cup of coffee on an average day" in terms of \(X\). What is the probability of this event?

Choose an American household at random and let the random variable \(X\) be the number of cars (including SUVs and light trucks) the residents own. Here is the probability model if we ignore the few households that own more than seven cars: \(\underline{15}\) \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|c|} \hline Number of cars \(\boldsymbol{X}\) & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 \\ \hline Probability & \(0.004\) & \(0.247\) & \(0.383\) & \(0.212\) & \(0.097\) & \(0.037\) & \(0.011\) & \(0.009\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} A housing company builds houses with two-car garages. What percentage of households have more cars than the garage can hold? a. \(21.2 \%\) b. \(25.1 \%\)

Door Prize. A party host gives a door prize to one guest chosen at random. There are 48 men and 42 women at the party. What is the probability that the prize goes to a woman? Explain how you arrived at your answer.

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