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How Accurate Is the Poll? A Pew Research Center survey on Teens, Social Media \& Technology at the beginning of 2015 included 1060 teens, of which 614 were white, non-Hispanic; 101 were black, non-Hispanic; 236 were Hispanic; and 109 were other races or ethnic groups. Each teen sampled was asked about technology usage, including access to mobile devices, social media usage, and video game playing. The margin of error (we will give more detail in later chapters) was reported as \(63.7 \%\) for the entire sample. When considering technology usage of only the Hispanic teens, the margin of error was reported as \(68.1 \% .4\) What do you think explains the fact that estimates for Hispanic teens were less precise than for the entire sample?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The Hispanic teen sample size is smaller, leading to a larger margin of error and less precision.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Margin of Error

The margin of error helps understand how much estimates might differ from the real population values. A higher margin means less precise estimates.
02

Analyze the Sample Sizes

Compare the sample size of Hispanic teens (236) to the entire sample size (1060). A smaller subgroup size typically leads to a larger margin of error because fewer observations result in less statistical stability.
03

Interpret the Margin Differences

The margin of error for the entire sample is 63.7%, whereas for only Hispanic teens, it is 68.1%. This increase is mainly because the sample size for the Hispanic subgroup is smaller, which makes estimates less precise.
04

Conclusion

The difference in margins of error is explained by the sample size for Hispanic teens being much smaller than that for the entire sample, leading to less precise estimates for the Hispanic subgroup.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size
In any survey or study, **sample size** plays a critical role in determining the accuracy and reliability of the results. The sample is a small group selected from a larger population, and the size of this sample significantly influences the survey's outcomes.

When you have a larger sample size, the data collected tends to more accurately reflect the characteristics and behaviors of the entire population. This is because a bigger sample size can include more variations and is less likely to be skewed by outliers or anomalies.

For instance, in the Pew Research Center survey, the entire sample included 1060 teens. This relatively large sample provides a broader perspective on teens' technology usage overall. However, when the focus narrows down to only Hispanic teens, the sample size decreases to 236. The smaller number of observations in this subgroup can lead to less accurate or less stable conclusions.

The takeaway here is that expanding the sample size often leads to enhancing the reliability of survey results, reducing the margin of error, and yielding more trustworthy data.
Survey Accuracy
The term **survey accuracy** refers to how closely the survey's findings reflect the real-world situation it's intended to measure. One of the key elements influencing survey accuracy is the margin of error.

The margin of error quantifies the extent to which survey results may differ from the actual population values. A smaller margin indicates more precise estimates, whereas a larger margin suggests a greater potential for variance.

In the Pew Research survey, the overall margin of error for all teens was reported at 63.7%. This level of precision indicates reasonable confidence in the survey results for the entire teen population studied. However, when focusing solely on Hispanic teens, the margin of error increases to 68.1%.

This increase in the margin of error suggests that survey findings regarding Hispanic teens might not be as accurate, implying less confidence in these specific results. This is mainly due to their smaller sample size, which undermines the precise representation of the broader Hispanic teen population.
Statistical Stability
**Statistical stability** refers to the consistency and dependability of the survey results. When survey outcomes are statistically stable, they are reliable across various trials and subgroups.

One significant factor that influences statistical stability is the size and diversity of the sample. A large and diverse sample is more likely to produce stable and reliable results because it can replicate the overall trends seen in the broader population.

In the Pew survey, the broader sample of 1060 teens provides a robust basis for statistical stability regarding overall conclusions about teens and technology. However, when dissecting the results to focus only on Hispanic teens, the sample becomes much smaller and potentially less diverse.

This decrease in sample size impacts the survey's statistical stability, as they're less able to capture all nuances and variations within that subgroup, leading to potentially inconsistent or less reliable data. Thus, statistical stability tends to decrease when the subgroup size is small, highlighting the importance of robust sampling methodologies in achieving reliable survey outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A survey of Chicago. A New York Times/Kaiser foundation survey of Chicagoans showed that they are deeply dissatisfied with the direction of their city, distrust ful of their police force, and divided along racial lines. The poll is based on telephone interviews conducted April 21-May 3, 2016, with 1123 adults who live in Chicago. The samples of telephone exchanges for both landlines and cell phones were randomly selected by a computer from a complete list of exchanges in Chicago (the telephone exchange is the three digits following the area code). Within each exchange, random digits were added to form a complete telephone number, thus permitting access to listed and unlisted numbers alike. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday. 22 (a) The survey wants the opinion of an individual adult, but a landline phone reaches a household in which several adults may live. In that case, the survey interviewed the adult with the most recent birthday. Why is this preferable to simply interviewing the person who answers the phone? (b) What is the population that this survey wants to describe? Why do you think it is important to include both landline and cellular phones in your sample? (c) Are there residents of Chicago who have telephone numbers that cannot be reached by the survey method described? Explain why this could be a problem. (Hint: How are telephone numbers assigned to cell phone users?)

Canadian health care survey. The Tenth Annual Health Care in Canada Survey, conducted by POLLARA Research between October 3 and November 8,2007 , is a survey of the opinions of the Canadian public and health care providers on a variety of health care issues, including quality of health care, access to health care, health and the environment, and so forth. According to POLLARA, the survey was based on telephone interviews and included nationally representative samples of 1,223 members of the Canadian public, 202 doctors, 201 nurses, 202 pharmacists and 201 health managers. Public results are cansidered to be accurate within \(\pm 2.8 \%\), while the margin of error for results for doctors, nurses, pharmacists and managers is \(\pm 6.9 \% 6^{32}\) (a) Why is the accuracy greater for the public than for health care providers and managers? (b) Why do you think they sampled the public as well as health care providers and managers?

Online news polls. On January 30, 2015, the Los Angeles Times ran an online poll on its website and asked readers the question, If the NFL comes to Las Angeles, which team would be the best fit? The St. Louis Rams, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders are all an year-to-year leases, unhappy with their current venues, and mulling a possible relocution to L.A. Readers clicked on one of three buttons to vote: a picture of the Oakland Raiders logo, a picture of the San Diego Chargers logo, and a picture of the St. Louis Rams logo. In all, 12,212 (33\%) selected the Oakland Raiders, 2038 (6\%) selected the San Diego Chargers, and 22,721 (61\%) selected the St. Louis Rams. 25 (a) What is the sample size for this poll? (b) The sample size for this poll is much larger than is typical for polls such as the Gallup Poll. Explain why the poll may give unreliable information, even with such a large sample size.

A sample of households in a community is selected at random from the telephone directory. In this community, \(4 \%\) of households have no telephone, \(10 \%\) have only cell phones, and another \(25 \%\) have unlisted telephone numbers. The sample will certainly suffer from (a) nonresponse. (b) undercoverage. (c) false responses.

Seat belt use. A study in El Paso, Texas, looked at seat belt use by drivers. Drivers were observed at randomly chosen convenience stores. After they left their cars, they were invited to answer questions that included questions about seat belt use. In all, \(75 \%\) said they always used seat belts, yet only \(61.5 \%\) were wearing seat belts when they pulled into the store parking lots. 28 Explain the reason for the bias observed in responses to the survey. Do you expect bias in the same direction in most surveys about seat belt use?

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