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Online news polls. On January 30, 2015, the Los Angeles Times ran an online poll on its website and asked readers the question, If the NFL comes to Las Angeles, which team would be the best fit? The St. Louis Rams, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders are all an year-to-year leases, unhappy with their current venues, and mulling a possible relocution to L.A. Readers clicked on one of three buttons to vote: a picture of the Oakland Raiders logo, a picture of the San Diego Chargers logo, and a picture of the St. Louis Rams logo. In all, 12,212 (33\%) selected the Oakland Raiders, 2038 (6\%) selected the San Diego Chargers, and 22,721 (61\%) selected the St. Louis Rams. 25 (a) What is the sample size for this poll? (b) The sample size for this poll is much larger than is typical for polls such as the Gallup Poll. Explain why the poll may give unreliable information, even with such a large sample size.

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Sample Size

To find the sample size, sum the number of votes for each team. The sample size \( n \) is calculated using the formula: \( n = 12212 + 2038 + 22721 \), which equals \( 36,971 \). Thus, the sample size for the poll is 36,971.

02

Analyze the Reliability of Online Polls

Online polls may not be reliable due to non-random sampling. People who participate are self-selected, often leading to a sample that does not represent the broader population.

03

Consider Response Bias

Participants in online polls can vote multiple times or influence others, resulting in a response bias where the poll results are skewed towards certain options.

04

Evaluate Lack of Control

There's no control over who participates in an online poll, which may bring in respondents without a vested interest or opinion, reducing the quality and reliability of the results.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Size

When conducting a poll, understanding the sample size is crucial. The sample size refers to the total number of responses collected during the poll. For instance, in the Los Angeles Times online poll regarding NFL teams, the total votes amounted to 36,971 participants. A large sample size can enhance the reliability of a poll as it potentially captures a wider array of opinions. However, it's important to note that size alone doesn't guarantee accuracy. Many factors influence the reliability of poll results. In essence, while a 36,971 participant sample size is impressive, one must look beyond numbers to assess the quality of data obtained.

Online Polls

Online polls are popular on websites for gauging public opinion on various topics. They are easy to set up and can reach a broad audience quickly. However, while online polls seem advantageous, they come with notable limitations:

• They lack control over who participates, often leading to issues in reflecting a truly representative sample.
• Participation is voluntary, which typically only attracts those with strong opinions or vested interests in the topic.

Despite the large participation numbers, such as in the Los Angeles Times poll, online polls can exhibit significant biases that may hinder their overall reliability.

Non-Random Sampling

Non-random sampling is a common issue in online polls. In this method, the selection of participants is not random, which can skew the results. In online polls, participants often self-select, meaning only those interested in the topic will respond. This can lead to a sample that doesn't accurately represent the broader population. For instance, if a poll is about the NFL teams relocating, it might primarily attract responses from football fans rather than a more diverse demographic group. As a result, the lack of random sampling diminishes the generalizability of the poll's findings.

Response Bias

Response bias occurs when the results of a poll are influenced by factors that sway participant choices. In online polls, this can happen in several ways:

• Participants might vote multiple times, especially if there's no mechanism to restrict one vote per person.
• Social influences can urge people to vote in favor of a particular choice due to current popularity or peer pressure.
• A lack of anonymity might also incline respondents to choose options they believe are more socially acceptable.

These factors lead to an unfair representation of opinions, making response bias a critical factor affecting the credibility of online polls, as exhibited in cases like the NFL team preference survey by the Los Angeles Times.