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Example \(16.1\) (page 377) described NHANES data on the body mass index (BMI) of 654 young women. The mean BMI in the sample was \(x^{-} \bar{x}=26.8\). We treated these data as an SRS from a Normally distributed population with standard deviation \(\sigma=7.5\). (a) Suppose that we had an SRS of just 100 young women. What would be the margin of error for \(95 \%\) confidence? (b) Find the margins of error for \(95 \%\) confidence based on SRSs of 400 young women and 1600 young women. (c) Compare the three margins of error. How does increasing the sample size change the margin of error of a confidence interval when the confidence level and population standard deviation remain the same?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 1.47; (b) 0.735 and 0.3675; (c) Larger samples decrease the margin of error.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Margin of Error Formula

The margin of error (ME) for a population proportion with a given confidence level is calculated using the formula \( ME = Z^* \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( Z^* \) is the critical value for the desired confidence level, \( \sigma \) is the population standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size.
02

Determine the Critical Value

For a 95% confidence level, the critical value \( Z^* \) is approximately 1.96. This value is obtained from the standard normal distribution table.
03

Calculate Margin of Error for 100 Women

Substitute \( \sigma = 7.5 \), \( Z^* = 1.96 \), and \( n = 100 \) into the formula: \[ ME = 1.96 \cdot \frac{7.5}{\sqrt{100}} = 1.96 \cdot 0.75 = 1.47 \] So, the margin of error for 100 young women is 1.47.
04

Calculate Margin of Error for 400 Women

Substitute \( n = 400 \) into the formula: \[ ME = 1.96 \cdot \frac{7.5}{\sqrt{400}} = 1.96 \cdot 0.375 = 0.735 \] Thus, the margin of error for 400 young women is 0.735.
05

Calculate Margin of Error for 1600 Women

Substitute \( n = 1600 \) into the formula: \[ ME = 1.96 \cdot \frac{7.5}{\sqrt{1600}} = 1.96 \cdot 0.1875 = 0.3675 \] Therefore, the margin of error for 1600 young women is 0.3675.
06

Analyze the Impact of Sample Size

Observe the calculated margins of error: 1.47 for 100 women, 0.735 for 400 women, and 0.3675 for 1600 women. As the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases, indicating that larger sample sizes provide more precise estimates of the population parameter at the same confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
A confidence interval is a range of values that is used to estimate a population parameter, such as a mean or proportion. It is constructed around a sample statistic and provides an upper and lower bound to predict the parameter's potential values. For example, if you've calculated a confidence interval for the mean BMI of a group of young women, this interval tells you where the true mean BMI of all young women is likely to lie.
The confidence level, usually expressed as a percentage like 95%, indicates the degree of certainty that the true parameter lies within the interval. A 95% confidence level means that if you were to take many samples and construct an interval for each, 95% of those intervals would contain the true parameter value.
Confidence intervals are essential in giving people an idea of the precision and reliability of the estimate. They take into account sample variability and allow for a broader view of the data beyond just a single point estimate.
Sample Size
Sample size is the number of observations or data points collected in a sample from a larger population. It plays a crucial role in statistical analysis, especially when calculating the margin of error of a confidence interval. As shown in the solution steps, larger sample sizes result in smaller margins of error.
A larger sample size provides more information about the population and leads to more accurate estimates of population parameters. This is because it reduces the variability that can result from a small sample, making the estimates more reliable.
In the context of BMI data for young women, collecting information from 100 women yields a larger margin of error compared to collecting data from 1600 women. Therefore, when designing a study, it is crucial to choose a sample size that balances precision with practicality and cost.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. It gives insight into how much individual data points in a sample differ from the sample mean. In the context of the given problem, the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) is a known population parameter set at 7.5.
A higher standard deviation implies that the data points are spread out over a wider range. Conversely, a smaller standard deviation means that the data points are closer to the mean. Understanding standard deviation is crucial because it directly affects how wide the confidence interval will be.
In our exercise, the standard deviation is used in the margin of error formula, where an increase in standard deviation would lead to a wider interval for the same sample size and confidence level. This is why knowing the population standard deviation helps in constructing accurate confidence intervals.
Critical Value
Critical value is a point on the continuous probability distribution that is used to define the threshold in hypothesis testing or to calculate the margin of error for a confidence interval. It represents the number of standard deviations from the mean required to achieve the desired confidence level.
For a confidence interval of 95%, which is quite common, the critical value is typically 1.96. This means if you are interested in a 95% confidence level, the \(Z^*\) value or critical value is 1.96, and denotes the number of standard deviations the upper and lower bounds will lie from the sample mean.
Selecting an appropriate critical value is essential, as it directly influences the width of the confidence interval. Remember, a higher confidence level would increase the critical value, thus widening the confidence interval and decreasing precision, yet increasing certainty that the interval contains the true population parameter.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A 2015 Gallup Poll asked a national random sample of 398 adult women to state their current weight. The mean weight in the sample was \(\mathrm{x}^{-} \bar{x}=155\). We will treat these data as an SRS from a Normally distributed population with standard deviation \(\sigma=35\). (a) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean weight of adult women based on these data. (b) Do you trust the interval you computed in part (a) as a 95\% confidence interval for the mean weight of all U.S. adult women? Why or why not?

You read that a statistical test at the \(\alpha=0.05\) level has probability \(0.49\) of making a Type II error when a specific alternative is true. What is the power of the test against this alternative?

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You have data on an SRS of freshmen from your college that shows how long each student spends studying and working on homework. The data contain one high outlier. Will this outlier have a greater effect on a confidence interval for mean completion time if your sample is small or if it is large? Why?

How much education children get is strongly associated with the wealth and social status of their parents. In social science jargon, this is socioeconomic status, or SES. But the SES of parents has little influence on whether children who have graduated from college go on to yet more education. One study looked at whether college graduates took the graduate admissions tests for business, law, and other graduate programs. The effects of the parents' SES on taking the LSAT test for law school were "both statistically insignificant and small." (a) What does "statistically insignificant" mean? (b) Why is it important that the effects were small in size as well as insignificant?

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