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You use software to carry out a test of significance. The program tells you that the \(P\)-value is \(P=0.011\). You conclude that the probability, computed assuming that \(\mathrm{H}_{0}\) is (a) true, of the test statistic taking a value as extreme as or more extreme than that actually observed is \(0.011\). (b) true, of the test statistic taking a value as extreme as or less extreme than that actually observed is \(0.011\). (c) false, of the test statistic taking a value as extreme as or more extreme than that actually observed is \(0.011\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
Option (a) is correct.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Concept

A \(P\)-value is a probability that, assuming the null hypothesis \((\mathrm{H}_0)\) is true, the test statistic is as extreme as or more extreme than the one actually observed in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
02

Analyze Option A

Option (a) states that if \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is true, the probability of the test statistic taking a value as extreme as or more extreme than the one observed is \(0.011\). This correctly describes the definition of a \(P\)-value.
03

Analyze Option B

Option (b) states the \(P\)-value represents the probability of the test statistic being as extreme as or less extreme. This is incorrect, as the \(P\)-value represents extremeness in the direction of the alternative hypothesis.
04

Analyze Option C

Option (c) suggests that the null hypothesis \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is false for the probability calculation stated. This is incorrect because the \(P\)-value calculation assumes \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is true.
05

Conclude the Correct Answer

Given the definitions and explanations, option (a) correctly identifies the concept of a \(P\)-value, making it the correct conclusion.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In statistical significance testing, the null hypothesis (\(\mathrm{H}_0\)) is a statement that there is no effect or no difference in a certain population parameter. It's essentially the statement that researchers aim to test against. When performing any hypothesis test, the first step is to establish this hypothesis, which serves as the starting point.

The null hypothesis usually assumes that any kind of observed difference or relationship in the data is due to randomness or chance. For example, if you are testing a new medication, the null hypothesis might state that the medication has no effect compared to the placebo.

Testing the null hypothesis involves computing the probability of observing data as extreme as the data collected, considering the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. The result of this calculation is known as the \(P\)-value. If this \(P\)-value is low—below a predetermined significance level—then the null hypothesis can be rejected, suggesting that there might be a true effect.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a standard value derived from sample data during a hypothesis test. It quantifies the magnitude of deviation from what the null hypothesis predicts. By converting data into a single numerical value, the test statistic simplifies the comparison between data and \( \mathrm{H}_{0} \).

Depending on the type of test performed, the test statistic can have different forms, such as a t-score, z-score, or chi-square statistic. For example, when comparing sample means to a known population mean, a t-score might be used.

Once calculated, the test statistic is used to find the \(P\)-value. This is done by referring it to a probability distribution that explains how this statistic is expected to behave, assuming the null hypothesis is correct. This makes the test statistic a pivotal element in determining whether to accept or reject \( \mathrm{H}_{0} \) in the context of statistical significance.
Significance Testing
Significance testing is a statistical method used to determine if there is enough evidence to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis. The primary goal is to decide whether an observed effect in the data is genuine or occurred due to random variability. It centers around the use of the \(P\)-value to assess the evidence against \(\mathrm{H}_0\).

The process involves the following general steps:
  • Formulate the null (\(\mathrm{H}_0\)) and alternative (\(\mathrm{H}_a\)) hypotheses.
  • Choose a significance level (\(\alpha\)), usually 0.05, which defines the threshold for rejecting \(\mathrm{H}_0\).
  • Calculate the test statistic from sample data.
  • Determine the \(P\)-value, indicating the probability of observing a statistic as extreme as the one calculated, if \(\mathrm{H}_0\) is true.
  • If the \(P\)-value is less than \(\alpha\), reject \(\mathrm{H}_0\); otherwise, fail to reject \(\mathrm{H}_0\).
The conclusion of significance testing helps researchers make informed, data-driven decisions, illustrating whether or not a particular hypothesis is statistically plausible.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Every society has its own marks of wealth and prestige. In ancient China, it appears that owning pigs was such a mark. Evidence comes from examining burial sites. The skulls of sacrificed pigs tend to appear along with expensive ornaments, which suggests that the pigs, like the ornaments, signal the wealth and prestige of the person buried. A study of burials from around 3500 B.C. concluded that "there are striking differences in grave goods between burials with pig skulls and burials without them . . . A test indicates that the two samples of total artifacts are statistically significantly different at the \(0.01\) level."8 Explain clearly why "statistically significantly different at the \(0.01\) level" gives good reason to think that there really is a systematic difference between burials that contain pig skulls and those that lack them.

In the study described in Exercise 17.33, researchers also examined the effect of the sex of an instructor on performance of students on a quiz. The researchers found no evidence of a difference in scores. \((P=0.24)\). The \(P\)-value refers to a null hypothesis of "no difference" in quiz scores measured on classes taught by male and female instructors. Explain clearly why this value provides no evidence of a difference.

The \(z\) statistic for a one-sided test is \(z=2.29\). This test is (a) not statistically significant at either \(\alpha=0.05\) or \(\alpha=0.01\). (b) statistically significant at \(\alpha=0.05\) but not at \(\alpha=0.01\). (c) statistically significant at both \(\alpha=0.05\) and \(\alpha=0.01\).

Family caregivers of patients with chronic illness can experience anxiety. Do regular support-group meetings affect these feelings of anxiety? It is possible that they reduce anxiety, perhaps through sharing experiences with other caregivers in similar situations, or increase anxiety, perhaps by reinforcing painful experiences by recounting them to others. To explore the effect of support-group meetings, several familiy caregivers were enrolled in a support group. After three months, researchers administered a test to measure anxiety, with larger scores indicating greater anxiety. Assume these caregivers are a random sample from the population of all family caregivers. A \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean anxiety score \(\mu\) after participating in a support group is \(7.2 \pm 0.7 .{ }^{13}\) Use the method described in the previous exercise to answer these questions. (a) Suppose we know that the mean anxiety score for the population of all family caregivers is \(6.4\). With a two-sided alternative, can you reject the null hypothesis that \(\mu=6.4\) at the \(5 \%(\alpha=0.05)\) significance level? Why? (b) Suppose we know that the mean anxiety score for the population of all family caregivers is \(6.6\). With a two-sided alternative, can you reject the null hypothesis that \(\mu=6.6\) at the \(5 \%(\alpha=0.05)\) significance level? Why?

The average income of American women who work fulltime and have only a high school degree is \(\$ 35,713\). You wonder whether the mean income of female graduates from your local high school who work full-time but have only a high school degree is different from the national average. You obtain income information from an SRS of 62 female graduates who work fulltime and have only a high school degree and find that \(x^{-} \bar{x}=\$ 35,053\). What are your null and alternative hypotheses?

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