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To give a \(99.9 \%\) confidence interval for a population mean \(\mu\), you would use the critical value (a) \(z^{*}=1.960\). (b) \(z^{*}=2.576\). (c) \(x^{+}=3.291\). Use the following information for Exercises \(16.12\) through 16.14. A laboratory scale is known to have a standard deviation of \(\sigma=0.001\) gram in repeated weighings. Scale readings in repeated weighings are Normally distributed, with mean equal to the true weight of the specimen. Three weighings of a specimen on this scale give \(3.412,3.416\), and \(3.414\) grams.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The correct critical value for a 99.9% confidence interval is \( z^{*} = 3.291 \).

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

To find a 99.9% confidence interval for a population mean \( \mu \), we need to determine the appropriate critical value \( z^{*} \) assuming the population has a known standard deviation.
02

Identify the Confidence Level

The confidence level given is 99.9%, which indicates that we are using a very high level of certainty in estimating the population mean.
03

Select the Correct Critical Value

For a 99.9% confidence interval, the correct critical value \( z^{*} \) is found from the standard normal distribution table. The two-tailed probability for 0.1% (since 100% - 99.9% = 0.1%) divided by two gives 0.05% in each tail. The \( z^{*} \) value corresponding to this is 3.291.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that tells us how much individual data points in a dataset deviate from the average of the data. It is essentially the average distance of each data point from the mean. When data points are closely clustered around the mean, the standard deviation is low. Conversely, when the data points are widely spread out, the standard deviation is high.

In the context of the laboratory scale mentioned in the exercise, the standard deviation is given as \( \sigma = 0.001 \) grams, suggesting that there is very little variation in scale readings due to measurement precision. This is important because knowing the standard deviation helps us estimate how accurately the scale can measure the specimen's weight consistently.
  • A low standard deviation (like 0.001 grams) indicates precise measurements.
  • It is crucial in constructing confidence intervals as it affects the margin of error.
Understanding how standard deviation works is fundamental when interpreting data consistency and reliability in scientific experiments.
Critical Value
The critical value is an important component when calculating a confidence interval. It represents the point or value beyond which we accept that our sample result would be unusual if the null hypothesis were true.

In other words, the critical value is used to dictate the confidence level and how much risk of error we are willing to take when making inferences about a population based on a sample. For a 99.9% confidence level, the critical value is especially important as it signifies a very high degree of certainty.
  • In a standard normal distribution, the critical value \( z^{*} \) for 99.9% confidence is approximately 3.291.
  • Choosing the correct critical value ensures that the confidence interval truly reflects the level of confidence desired.
This concept is key in hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals, determining the range in which the true population parameter is expected to fall.
Population Mean
The population mean, often denoted as \( \mu \), is a measure that represents the average of all possible values in a population. However, since it is usually impractical to measure the entire population, we estimate it using a sample mean.

In the given problem, the interest lies in estimating the true population mean of the weight of a specimen based on sample readings 3.412, 3.416, and 3.414 grams.
  • These values are used to compute the sample mean, which serves as the best estimate for the population mean \( \mu \).
  • The accuracy of this estimate improves with a larger sample size and smaller standard deviation.
Understanding population mean is crucial in statistics as it helps us generalize findings from a sample to the larger population.
Confidence Level
A confidence level indicates the degree of certainty or probability that a population parameter lies within a calculated confidence interval. The confidence level is expressed as a percentage, indicating how certain we are that the interval we calculate contains the true population parameter.

In statistical language, a 99.9% confidence level means that if we took 1000 different samples and computed a confidence interval for each one, we would expect about 999 of these intervals to contain the population mean.
  • High confidence levels indicate more certainty but result in a wider confidence interval.
  • It is based on the critical value, determined by the desired confidence level.
When making decisions based on data, confidence levels provide insight into how reliable or precise our estimates are, allowing for informed decision-making in uncertain environments.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Suppose that an SRS of 2500 eighth-graders has \(x^{-} x=285\). Based on this sample, a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) is (a) \(4.31 \pm 0.086\) (b) \(285 \pm 4.31\). (c) \(282 \pm 4.31\).

Why are larger samples better? Statisticians prefer large samples. Describe briefly the effect of increasing the size of a sample on the margin of error of a \(95 \%\) confidence interval.

Addicted to Coffee. A Gallup Poll in July 2015 found that \(26 \%\) of the 675 coffee drinkers in the sample said they were addicted to coffee. Gallup announced, "For results based on the sample of 675 coffee drinkers, one can say with \(95 \%\) confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is \(\pm 5\) percentage points." (a) Confidence intervals for a percent follow the form $$ \text { estimate } \pm \text { margin of error } $$ Based on the information from Gallup, what is the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the percent of all coffee drinkers who would say they are addicted to coffee? (b) What does it mean to have \(95 \%\) confidence in this interval?

In the previous exercise, suppose that we computed a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\). Which of the following is true? (a) This \(90 \%\) confidence interval would have a smaller margin of error than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. (b) This \(90 \%\) confidence interval would have a larger margin of error than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. (c) This \(90 \%\) confidence interval could have either a smaller or a larger margin of error than the \(95 \%\) confidence interval. This varies from sample to sample.

Pulling wood apart. How heavy a load (in pounds) is needed to pull apart päeces of Douglas fir 4 inches long and \(1.5\) inches square? Here are data from students doing a laboratory exercise: wood $$ \begin{array}{lllll} 33,190 & 31,860 & 32,590 & 26,520 & 33,280 \\ 32,320 & 33,020 & 32,030 & 30,460 & 32,700 \\ 23,040 & 30,930 & 32,720 & 33,650 & 32,340 \\ 24,050 & 30,170 & 31,300 & 28,730 & 31,920 \end{array} $$ (a) We are willing to regard the wood pleces prepared for the lab session as an SRS of all similar pieces of Douglas fir. Engineers also commonly assume that characteristics of materials vary Normally. Make a graph to show the shape of the distribution for these data. Does it appear safe to assume that the Normality condition is satisfied? Suppose that the strength of pieces of wood like these follows a Normal distribution with standard deviation 3000 pounds. (b) Give a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean load required to pull the wood apart.

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