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Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) fuel economy estimates for automobile models tested recently predicted a mean of \(24.8 \mathrm{mpg}\) and a standard deviation of 6.2 mpg for highway driving. Assume that a Normal model can be applied. a) Draw the model for auto fuel economy. Clearly label it, showing what the \(68-95-99.7\) Rule predicts. b) In what interval would you expect the central \(68 \%\) of autos to be found? c) About what percent of autos should get more than \(31 \mathrm{mpg} ?\) d) About what percent of cars should get between 31 and \(37.2 \mathrm{mpg} ?\) e) Describe the gas mileage of the worst \(2.5 \%\) of all cars.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Draw normal curve with mean = 24.8, labels at 18.6, 31.0, 37.2 mpg. b) Interval: [18.6, 31.0] mpg. c) 16% get more than 31 mpg. d) 13.5% get between 31 and 37.2 mpg. e) Worst 2.5% get less than 12.4 mpg.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Exercise

To solve this problem, we need to use the properties of the Normal distribution, characterized by a mean and standard deviation, and apply the 68-95-99.7 rule, also known as the Empirical Rule. This helps in understanding the distribution of data, assuming a normal distribution model.
02

Drawing the Normal Model

The mean (\(\mu\)) of the distribution is given as 24.8 mpg, and the standard deviation (\(\sigma\)) is 6.2 mpg. According to the 68-95-99.7 rule:- 68% of the data lies within one standard deviation (23.6 to 26 mpg)- 95% of the data lies within two standard deviations (18.6 to 31 mpg)- 99.7% lies within three standard deviations (12.4 to 37.2 mpg).This information is represented on a bell curve, labeled with these intervals.
03

Calculating the Interval for Central 68%

Using the Empirical Rule, the central 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean. Therefore, the interval is \([24.8 - 6.2, 24.8 + 6.2] = [18.6, 31.0]\) mpg.
04

Calculating Percent for More Than 31 mpg

To find the percentage of cars getting more than 31 mpg, find how far 31 is from the mean in terms of standard deviations: \(z = \frac{31 - 24.8}{6.2} \approx 1\).This corresponds to the upper 16% of a normal distribution (as 68% are within 1 standard deviation and 16% are above and below it). Therefore, 16% of cars get more than 31 mpg.
05

Calculating Percent for 31 to 37.2 mpg

First, find how far 37.2 is from the mean: \(z = \frac{37.2 - 24.8}{6.2} \approx 2\).The proportion of data between 1 and 2 standard deviations above the mean is 13.5% (since 95% is within ±2 and subtracting the 68% within ±1). Thus, about 13.5% of cars get between 31 and 37.2 mpg.
06

Describing the Worst 2.5%

The worst 2.5% of cars corresponds to those more than two standard deviations below the mean (since 95% is within ±2, leaving 2.5% in the lower tail). Calculate: \(24.8 - 2 \times 6.2 = 12.4\).Therefore, the worst 2.5% of cars have a gas mileage less than 12.4 mpg.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Empirical Rule
The Empirical Rule, also known as the 68-95-99.7 Rule, is a statistical principle that applies to normally distributed data. It provides a simple way to understand the spread and clustering of data around the mean. According to this rule:
  • Approximately 68% of data falls within one standard deviation ( \(\sigma\) ) of the mean ( \(\mu\) )
  • About 95% is within two standard deviations
  • Nearly all (99.7%) is within three standard deviations

This rule helps to visualize how data points distribute on a bell curve, describing the probability of a random variable falling within certain ranges. It's particularly useful for solving practical problems when comparing real-world data, like fuel economy estimates, to a theoretical normal model.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. A low standard deviation means that the data points are close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates a wider spread around the mean. In our problem, the standard deviation of 6.2 miles per gallon (mpg) tells us that the auto fuel economy readings differ from the mean in a range defined by this value.
To calculate standard deviation, consider how far each data point is from the mean, square these differences, average them, and then take the square root. This value helps to understand the confidence level around estimated averages, assessing the likelihood of variation.
Mean
In statistics, the mean is the average value of a dataset and serves as a measure of central tendency. It is found by adding all the data points and then dividing by the total number of points. For our exercise, the mean fuel economy is 24.8 mpg.
The mean gives an idea of the overall performance of automobile models in terms of fuel economy. It provides a baseline from which we can understand deviations, showing if certain cars perform significantly better or worse than others. Understanding the mean is crucial in many real-world applications, where it represents an "expected value" around which other results vary.
68-95-99.7 Rule
The 68-95-99.7 Rule is another way to apply the Empirical Rule to a normal distribution's bell curve. It illustrates the reach of standard deviations around the mean for predicting where most data points lie. In our problem:
  • 68% of vehicles will achieve a gas mileage between 18.6 and 31.0 mpg (within 1 standard deviation of the mean).
  • 95% should fall between 12.4 and 37.2 mpg (within 2 standard deviations).
  • 99.7% are expected within 3 standard deviations.

These percentages are tools to forecast data behavior and to determine uncommon events, like gas mileage significantly above or below average (mean). This rule thus helps in making informed predictions and decisions based on statistical patterns.

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