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LSAT The LSAT (a test taken for law school admission) has a mean score of 151 with a standard deviation of 9 and a unimodal, symmetric distribution of scores. A test preparation organization teaches small classes of 9 students at a time. A larger organization teaches classes of 25 students at a time. Both organizations publish the mean scores of all their classes. a) What would you expect the distribution of mean class scores to be for each organization? b) If cither organization has a graduating class with a mean score of \(160,\) they'll take out a full-page ad in the local school paper to advertise. Which organization is more likely to have that success? Explain. c) Both organizations advertise that if any class has an average score below \(145,\) they'll pay for everyone to retake the LSAT. Which organization is at greater risk to have to pay?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Small classes are more likely to achieve 160 and are at greater risk of scoring below 145 due to smaller standard error.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Distribution of Mean Class Scores

For both organizations, the distribution of mean class scores will follow a normal distribution because they use samples of a fixed size and the parent distribution is symmetric and unimodal. The Central Limit Theorem tells us that sample means will tend towards a normal distribution regardless of the population distribution provided the sample size is sufficiently large.
02

Calculating Standard Error for Both Organizations

The standard error (SE) represents the standard deviation of the sample mean distribution and is calculated as the population standard deviation divided by the square root of the sample size: For small classes (9 students): \[ SE_{small} = \frac{9}{\sqrt{9}} = \frac{9}{3} = 3 \]For large classes (25 students): \[ SE_{large} = \frac{9}{\sqrt{25}} = \frac{9}{5} = 1.8 \]
03

Considering Unusual Mean Score of 160

To assess which organization is more likely to achieve a mean of 160, calculate how many standard errors away from the mean (151) this score is. For small classes:\[ Z_{small} = \frac{160 - 151}{SE_{small}} = \frac{9}{3} = 3 \] For large classes:\[ Z_{large} = \frac{160 - 151}{SE_{large}} = \frac{9}{1.8} \approx 5 \]A smaller Z-score is more reachable, suggesting the organization with smaller classes is more likely to reach a mean of 160.
04

Risk of Having a Mean Score Below 145

Similarly, to find the risk of a class mean below 145, compute the Z-score:For small classes:\[ Z_{small} = \frac{145 - 151}{SE_{small}} = \frac{-6}{3} = -2 \]For large classes:\[ Z_{large} = \frac{145 - 151}{SE_{large}} = \frac{-6}{1.8} \approx -3.33 \]A smaller absolute Z-score indicates more probability, so the organization with small classes has a greater risk of scoring below 145.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Error
The standard error is an essential concept in statistics, representing the variability of the sample mean. In simpler terms, it indicates how much the mean from various samples of the same size is expected to differ from the true population mean. To calculate standard error, you use the formula:- \[ SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \]- where \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation of the population, and \( n \) is the sample size.In the context of the exercise, let's consider two organizations teaching different class sizes, 9 and 25 students respectively. The standard error depends heavily on the size of the sample:- - **9 students**: \( SE_{small} = \frac{9}{\sqrt{9}} = 3 \) - **25 students**: \( SE_{large} = \frac{9}{\sqrt{25}} = 1.8 \)The smaller the standard error, the closer the sample mean is likely to be to the population mean. Thus, with a larger class size (25 students), the calculated standard error is smaller, indicating less variability in the class mean scores.
Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a critical concept in statistics, referring to a bell-shaped, symmetric distribution where most values cluster around a central peak. The tails of the distribution extend infinitely, but they don’t completely touch the horizontal axis. When dealing with something like the LSAT scores, understanding normal distribution is critical. This is because, by the Central Limit Theorem, the distribution of sample means will approximate a normal distribution, even if the original data isn’t normally distributed, provided the sample size is sufficiently large. - Important properties of a normal distribution include: - - **Symmetry around the mean**: In a normal distribution, the mean, median, and mode of the data are equal. - **68-95-99.7 Rule**: About 68% of data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three. In the case of class mean scores, because both organizations use samples (class sizes) and the population is symmetric and unimodal, their mean scores will both follow a normal distribution. This understanding aids in determining probabilities for achieving certain scores and assessing statistical risks.
Z-score
A Z-score is a numerical measurement that describes a value's relationship to the mean of a group of values. It's measured in terms of standard deviations from the mean. When we calculate a Z-score, we're trying to understand how far away, and in what direction, a score is from the average score.Here's the formula for computing a Z-score:- \[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{SE} \]- Where \( X \) is the value you're examining, \( \mu \) is the mean of the sample or population, and \( SE \) is the standard error.In our LSAT exercise:- With a mean score of 151, we calculate how far a score of 160 deviates from this mean: - **Small class size (9 students)**: \( Z_{small} = \frac{160 - 151}{3} = 3 \) - **Large class size (25 students)**: \( Z_{large} = \frac{160 - 151}{1.8} \approx 5 \)The smaller the Z-score, the closer a score is to the mean, and the more likely it is to occur. Therefore, the smaller class size has a greater chance of achieving a score of 160, as its Z-score is smaller. Similarly, for predicting lower scores like 145, we use negative Z-scores to compare risks.

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