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Food preference GfK Roper Consulting gathers information on consumer preferences around the world to help companies monitor attitudes about health, food, and healthcare products. They asked people in many different cultures how they felt about the following statement: I have a strong preference for regional or traditional products and dishes from where I come from. In a random sample of 800 respondents, 417 of 646 people who live in urban environments agreed (either completely or somewhat) with that statement, compared to 78 out of 154 people who live in rural areas. Based on this sample, is there evidence that the percentage of people agreeing with the statement about regional preferences differs between all urban and rural dwellers?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, there is evidence that the percentage of agreement differs between urban and rural dwellers.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

We want to test whether there is a difference between the urban and rural dwellers in their agreement with the statement. The null hypothesis (H0) is that the proportion of urban dwellers who agree is equal to the proportion of rural dwellers who agree. The alternative hypothesis (Ha) is that the proportions are not equal. - H0: p1 = p2 - Ha: p1 ≠ p2 Here, p1 represents the proportion of urban dwellers agreeing, and p2 represents the proportion of rural dwellers agreeing.
02

Calculate Sample Proportions

First, calculate the sample proportions for urban and rural dwellers who agree with the statement: For urban dwellers: \[ p_1 = \frac{417}{646} \approx 0.645 \]For rural dwellers: \[ p_2 = \frac{78}{154} \approx 0.506 \]
03

Determine the Pooled Proportion

The pooled proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated using all the successes and the total sample size: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{417 + 78}{646 + 154} = \frac{495}{800} \approx 0.619 \]
04

Calculate the Standard Error

Compute the standard error for the difference between the two sample proportions:\[SE = \sqrt{ \hat{p}(1 - \hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) } = \sqrt{ 0.619 \times 0.381 \left( \frac{1}{646} + \frac{1}{154} \right) } \approx 0.051 \]
05

Compute the Test Statistic

Calculate the test statistic using the formula for the difference between two proportions: \[ z = \frac{0.645 - 0.506}{0.051} \approx 2.725 \]
06

Find the P-value

Use the standard normal distribution table to find the p-value corresponding to the calculated z-score (2.725). The p-value for a two-tailed test with z = 2.725 is approximately 0.0064.
07

Make the Decision

Compare the p-value to the significance level \( \alpha \) (commonly 0.05). Since 0.0064 < 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis.
08

Conclusion

There is evidence to suggest that the percentage of people who agree with the statement differs between urban and rural dwellers.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportions
In hypothesis testing, we often compare proportions from different samples to draw conclusions about a population. A sample proportion represents the fraction or percentage of the sample that exhibits a certain characteristic. In the example given, we calculate the sample proportions of urban and rural dwellers who agree with a statement about regional preferences.

To find the sample proportion, divide the number of positive responses by the total number of respondents in each group. For instance:- Urban dwellers: 417 agreed out of 646, giving a proportion of \( p_1 = \frac{417}{646} \approx 0.645 \).- Rural dwellers: 78 agreed out of 154, giving a proportion of \( p_2 = \frac{78}{154} \approx 0.506 \).

These proportions provide the basis for testing whether there's a significant difference in preferences between the two groups.
Pooled Proportion
When comparing two proportions, we often calculate a pooled proportion. This helps us better estimate the common population proportion under the null hypothesis that both groups are alike.

To find the pooled proportion, you must sum the total successes and divide by the total number of respondents from both samples. In this exercise, this is calculated as:- Total successes = 417 (urban) + 78 (rural) = 495- Total respondents = 646 (urban) + 154 (rural) = 800

Thus, the pooled proportion \( \hat{p} = \frac{495}{800} \approx 0.619 \).

The pooled proportion assumes that the combined samples follow the same underlying distribution, and it assists in calculating the standard error.
Standard Error
The standard error quantifies the variability of the sample statistic (like the difference between two proportions) from the actual population parameter. It provides a measure of how much we expect the sample statistic to fluctuate due to sampling variability.

In the context of two sample proportions, the standard error is calculated as follows:\[ SE = \sqrt{ \hat{p}(1 - \hat{p}) \left( \frac{1}{n_1} + \frac{1}{n_2} \right) } \]Insert the values obtained: \( \hat{p} = 0.619 \), \( n_1 = 646 \), and \( n_2 = 154 \).

This results in: \[ SE = \sqrt{ 0.619 \times 0.381 \left( \frac{1}{646} + \frac{1}{154} \right) } \approx 0.051 \]

The standard error is crucial for calculating the test statistic, which in turn helps determine whether the observed difference is statistically significant.
P-value
The p-value is a probability measure that helps us decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one calculated, assuming the null hypothesis is true.

In hypothesis testing with two proportions, once we calculate the test statistic (z-score), we reference a standard normal distribution to find the p-value. For this problem, the z-score calculated was approximately 2.725.

By checking this z-score against standard normal distribution tables or using computational tools, we find the p-value \( \approx 0.0064 \) for a two-tailed test.

This p-value indicates how strongly the sample data contradict the null hypothesis. Typically, if the p-value is less than the chosen significance level (commonly \( \alpha = 0.05 \)), we reject the null hypothesis, suggesting a real difference between the groups.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Buy it again? A consumer magazine plans to poll car owners to see if they are happy enough with their vehicles that they would purchase the same model again. They'll randomly select 450 owners of American-made cars and 450 owners of Japanese models. Obviously, the actual opinions of the entire population couldn't be known, but suppose \(76 \%\) of owners of American cars and \(78 \%\) of owners of Japanese cars would purchase another. a) What sampling design is the magazine planning to use? b) What difference would you expect their poll to show? c) Of course, sampling error means the poll won't reflect the difference perfectly. What's the standard deviation for the difference in the proportions? d) Sketch a sampling model for the difference in proportions that might appear in a poll like this. e) Could the magazine be misled by the poll, concluding that owners of American cars are much happier with their vehicles than owners of Japanese cars? Explain.

Mammograms A 9 -year study in Sweden compared 21,088 women who had mammograms with 21,195 who did not. Of the women who underwent screening, 63 died of breast cancer, compared to 66 deaths among the control group. (The New York Times, Dec 9, 2001) a) Do these results support the effectiveness of regular mammograms in preventing deaths from breast cancer? b) If your conclusion is incorrect, what kind of error have you committed?

Origins In a 1993 Gallup poll, \(47 \%\) of the respondents agreed with the statement "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." When Gallup asked the same question in \(2008,\) only \(44 \%\) of those respondents agreed. Is it reasonable to conclude that there was a change in public opinion given that the P-value is 0.17? Explain.

Shopping A survey of 430 randomly chosen adults found that \(21 \%\) of the 222 men and \(18 \%\) of the 208 women had purchased books online. a) Is there evidence that men are more likely than women to make online purchases of books? Test an appropriate hypothesis and state your conclusion in context. b) If your conclusion in fact proves to be wrong, did you make a Type I or Type II error? c) Estimate this difference with a confidence interval. d) Interpret your interval in context.

Race and smoking 2010 Data collected in 2010 by the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System revealed that in the state of New Jersey, \(15.7 \%\) of whites and \(15.9 \%\) of blacks were cigarette smokers. Suppose these proportions were based on samples of 2449 whites and 464 blacks. a) Create a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the percentage of smokers between black and white adults in New Jersey. b) Does this survey indicate a race-based difference in smoking among New Jersey adults? Explain, using your confidence interval to test an appropriate hypothesis. c) What alpha level did your test use?

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