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Faulty or not? You are in charge of shipping computers to customers. You learn that a faulty disk drive was put into some of the machines. There's a simple test you can perform, but it's not perfect. All but \(4 \%\) of the time, a good disk drive passes the test, but unfortunately, \(35 \%\) of the bad disk drives pass the test, too. You have to decide on the basis of one test whether the disk drive is good or bad. Make this a hypothesis test. a) What are the null and alternative hypotheses? b) Given that a computer fails the test, what would you decide? What if it passes the test? c) How large is \(\alpha\) for this test? d) What is the power of this test? (Hint: How many possibilities are in the alternative hypothesis?)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Null: Disk is good; Alternative: Disk is faulty. b) Fail: Faulty; Pass: Good. c) \(\alpha = 0.04\). d) Power is \(0.65\).

Step by step solution

01

Define Hypotheses

Identify the problem. The null hypothesis \((H_0)\) states that the disk drive is good. The alternative hypothesis \((H_a)\) states that the disk drive is faulty. This sets the framework for deciding based on the test results.
02

Interpret the Test Result

If a disk drive fails the test (doesn't pass), we have evidence against \(H_0\), and we decide that the disk is faulty. Conversely, if the disk drive passes the test, due to the test's imperfection, it might still be faulty, but we would conclude it is good since the test indicates passing.
03

Calculate Significance Level \(\alpha\)

\(\alpha\) is the probability of rejecting \(H_0\) when it is true (Type I error). Since \(4\%\) of good disk drives fail the test, \(\alpha \) is \(0.04\).
04

Determine Test Power

Power is the probability of correctly rejecting the null hypothesis when \(H_a\) is true. It is the complement of failing to reject \(H_0\) when \(H_a\) is true, i.e., it's the probability of detecting a bad disk as faulty. Thus, power is \(1 - 0.35 = 0.65\), given that \(35\%\) of the bad disk drives pass the test.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In the context of hypothesis testing, the null hypothesis (denoted as \(H_0\)) is a statement that there is no effect or no difference. It's a kind of default or baseline assumption that one seeks to test. Here, for the problem of checking whether a disk drive is faulty, our null hypothesis states that the disk drive is good. This reflects the initial assumption that drives are typically in working order.

When you perform a hypothesis test, the goal is to use data to make an informed decision on whether there's strong enough evidence to reject \(H_0\). Think of \(H_0\) as the "nothing changes" perspective, implying everything is as expected unless proved otherwise. Understanding this baseline is crucial before moving forward to detect errors or anomalies.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, denoted as \(H_a\), is the statement you consider if the null hypothesis is likely not true. It's what you believe may actually be happening. In our disk drive scenario, \(H_a\) states that the disk drive is faulty. This represents a shift in assumption from the normal or expected condition to a scenario where something needs addressing.

This hypothesis is what you usually wish to support with your data. Thus, rejecting \(H_0\) allows you to lean towards \(H_a\). In practical scenarios, actions are often taken when \(H_a\) proves true, such as recalling or repairing faulty disk drives. So, understanding \(H_a\) frames what actions might follow after the test conclusion.
Significance Level
The significance level, denoted as \(\alpha\), is a critical concept in hypothesis testing. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs when you reject the null hypothesis \(H_0\) when it is true. In simpler terms, it's the chance of believing a disk drive is faulty when it's not.

For our computer disk drive test, \(\alpha = 0.04\), illustrating that there's a 4\% risk of incorrectly declaring a good disk drive as faulty. Choosing an appropriate significance level involves balancing the risks of errors and the need for sensitivity in the test.
Given practical contexts, a smaller \(\alpha\) is generally picked to reduce false alarms, but it must be balanced with the test's sensitivity and consequence of errors.
Test Power
The power of a test is a measure of its ability to detect an effect or difference when it truly exists. In hypothesis testing, power tells us how likely the test is to correctly reject the null hypothesis \(H_0\) when the alternative hypothesis \(H_a\) is indeed true.

For the disk drive example, the power is calculated as \(1 - 0.35 = 0.65\). This implies that there is a 65\% probability of rightly identifying a bad disk drive as faulty.
In practical terms, higher power is desirable as it lessens the risk of a Type II error (not detecting a faulty disk when it truly is bad). More robust tests with better discrimination between the scenarios increase the odds of acting correctly, such as recalling defective drives. Balancing test sensitivity and practicality is key in adjusting power for more effective decision-making.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

\- Dogs Canine hip dysplasia is a degenerative disease that causes pain in many dogs. Sometimes advanced warning signs appear in puppics as young as 6 months. A veterinarian checked 42 puppies whose owners brought them to a vaccination clinic, and she found 5 with early hip dysplasia. She considers this group to be a random sample of all puppies. a) Explain we cannot use this information to construct a confidence interval for the rate of occurrence of early hip dysplasia among all 6 -month-old puppies. b) Construct a "plus-four" confidence interval and interpret it in this context.

Parameters and hypotheses For each of the following situations, define the parameter (proportion or mean) and write the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of parameter values. Example: We want to know if the proportion of up days in the stock market is \(50 \%\). Answer: Let \(p=\) the proportion of up days. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{o}}: p=0.5\) vs. \(\mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p \neq 0.5.\) a) A casino wants to know if their slot machine really delivers the 1 in 100 win rate that it claims. b) A pharmaceutical company wonders if their new drug has a cure rate different from the \(30 \%\) reported by the placebo. c) A bank wants to know if the percentage of customers using their website has changed from the \(40 \%\) that used it before their system crashed last week.

More hypotheses For each of the following, write out the alternative hypothesis, being sure to indicate whether it is one-sided or two-sided. a) Consumer Reports discovered that \(20 \%\) of a certain computer model had warranty problems over the first three months. From a random sample, the manufacturer wants to know if a new model has improved that rate. b) The last time a philanthropic agency requested donations, \(4.75 \%\) of people responded. From a recent pilot mailing, they wonder if that rate has increased. c) A student wants to know if other students on her campus prefer Coke or Pepsi.

Hard times In June \(2010,\) a random poll of 800 working men found that \(9 \%\) had taken on a second job to help pay the bills. (www.careerbuilder.com) a) Estimate the true percentage of men that are taking on second jobs by constructing a \(95 \%\) confidence interval. b) A pundit on a TV news show claimed that only \(6 \%\) of working men had a second job. Use your confidence interval to test whether his claim is plausible given the poll data.

Equal opportunity? A company is sued for job discrimination because only \(19 \%\) of the newly hired candidates were minorities when \(27 \%\) of all applicants were minorities. Is this strong evidence that the company's hiring practices are discriminatory? a) Is this a one-tailed or a two-tailed test? Why? b) In this context, what would a Type I error be? c) In this context, what would a Type II error be? d) In this context, what is meant by the power of the test? e) If the hypothesis is tested at the \(5 \%\) level of significance instead of \(1 \%,\) how will this affect the power of the test? f) The lawsuit is based on the hiring of 37 employees. Is the power of the test higher than, lower than, or the same as it would be if it were based on 87 hires?

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