/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 33 Pilot study A state's environmen... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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Pilot study A state's environmental agency worries that many cars may be violating clean air emissions standards. The agency hopes to check a sample of vehicles in order to estimate that percentage with a margin of error of \(3 \%\) and \(90 \%\) confidence. To gauge the size of the problem, the agency first picks 60 cars and finds 9 with faulty emissions systems. How many should be sampled for a full investigation?

Short Answer

Expert verified
383 cars should be sampled for the full investigation.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to calculate the sample size required to estimate the proportion of cars that violate emissions standards within a specified margin of error and confidence level. Given data includes a sample of 60 cars, of which 9 are non-compliant. We want results with a margin of error of 3% and 90% confidence level.
02

Calculate Initial Sample Proportion

First, calculate the sample proportion of cars with faulty emissions. The sample proportion (\( \hat{p} \)) is given by the formula \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \) where \( x \) is the number of faulty cars and \( n \) is the total sample size. Here, \( x = 9 \) and \( n = 60 \), so \( \hat{p} = \frac{9}{60} = 0.15 \).
03

Determine Z-Score for Confidence Level

The desired confidence level is 90%, which corresponds to a Z-score of approximately 1.645 (this value can be found in a standard normal distribution table or using statistical software).
04

Compute Required Sample Size

Use the formula for sample size for proportion estimates:\[ n = \left( \frac{Z^2 \times \hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{E^2} \right)\]where \( Z = 1.645 \) (Z-score for 90% confidence), \( \hat{p} = 0.15 \), and \( E = 0.03 \) (desired margin of error). Substitute these values:\[ n = \left( \frac{(1.645)^2 \times 0.15 \times 0.85}{0.03^2} \right)\]
05

Calculate the Numerical Result

Compute the expression:\[ n = \left( \frac{2.702025 \times 0.1275}{0.0009} \right) = \left( \frac{0.344506875}{0.0009} \right) \approx 382.785\]Since the sample size must be a whole number, we round up to the next whole number. Therefore, at least 383 cars should be sampled.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
A confidence interval gives us a range in which we expect the true value of a population parameter to fall, based on our sample data. When we talk about a 90% confidence interval, we mean that if we were to take 100 different samples and compute a confidence interval in the same way for each sample, we would expect the true population parameter to fall within these intervals in 90 out of the 100 samples. For the problem at hand, the environmental agency wants to be 90% confident in their estimate of faulty car emissions.

The confidence level directly influences the accuracy of our estimate. Higher confidence levels will result in wider intervals, implying more uncertainty. Conversely, a lower confidence level will yield narrower intervals, indicating more precision but less certainty.
Margin of Error
The margin of error tells us how much we expect our sample estimates to differ from the actual population parameter. In this exercise, the agency sets a margin of error at 3%. This means they want to ensure their estimate is no more than 3% above or below the true proportion of non-compliant vehicles.

To ensure accuracy within this margin, the sample size must be large enough to account for natural variations in the data. The smaller the margin of error, the larger the sample size required because we want our estimate to be very close to the true, unknown value.
Proportion Estimation
Proportion estimation is used when we want to infer about a population's characteristic based on sample data. In this context, we estimate what fraction of cars do not meet emission standards.

We calculate the sample proportion as \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \), where \( x \) is the number of faulty cars and \( n \) is the total size of the sample. From the initial pilot study, the sample proportion is 0.15, meaning 15% of the cars are faulty in the tested group. The sample proportion serves as an estimate of the true population proportion, guiding our sample size calculations.
Z-Score
The Z-score is a measure of how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It also helps us determine the confidence level. For a 90% confidence level, the corresponding Z-score is 1.645. This Z-score shows that the interval around the sample proportion should cover 90% of the distribution.

Z-scores can be found in a standard normal distribution table or using statistical software. In sample size calculation, they play a critical role by fixing how wide the confidence interval should be, based on how much uncertainty we're willing to tolerate. By leveraging Z-scores, we can compute precise sample sizes that balance confidence and specificity.

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