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91Ó°ÊÓ

Local news The mayor of a small city has suggested that the state locate a new prison there, arguing that the construction project and resulting jobs will be good for the local economy. A total of 183 residents show up for a public hearing on the proposal, and a show of hands finds only 31 in favor of the prison project. What can the city council conclude about public support for the mayor's initiative?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Public support for the mayor's project is low, with much more opposition than support.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

The problem involves determining the level of public support for a proposed prison project based on the number of attendees at a public hearing who voted in favor versus those who did not.
02

Calculate Total Opposition

First, calculate the number of residents opposed to the proposal by subtracting the number of residents in favor from the total number of attendees. This is done as follows: \( 183 - 31 = 152 \). Hence, 152 residents are against the proposal.
03

Interpret the Results

With 31 residents in favor and 152 against, the clear majority of attendees are opposed to the project. The city council should recognize that the public support for the mayor's proposal is low.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistical Interpretation
Statistical interpretation is a crucial tool in analyzing public opinion data. When faced with numbers like those from a public hearing, it involves understanding what these numbers mean for the wider population. In this example, the mayor's initiative to build a new prison only found favor with 31 out of 183 attendees. This data implies that a small fraction of the attendees support the project, specifically about \( \frac{31}{183} \), or roughly 16.94%. When interpreting statistics, it's important to comprehend not only raw numbers but also their implications.

Key considerations for statistical interpretation include:
  • Understanding sample size and representativeness - Does the sample reflect the broader community opinion, or is it skewed?
  • Knowing the context within which data is collected – Attendees of such hearings can be more passionate or biased towards their concerns.
  • Assessing the implications of majority versus minority opinions – Here, only 31 attendees supported, a minority against 152 opposed.

Statistical interpretation provides insight into civic matters and helps the city council make informed decisions.
Quantitative Analysis
Quantitative analysis involves the use of numbers and data to understand public opinions and behaviors. In the situation provided, this analysis helped in clarifying public sentiment about the proposed prison. To conduct such analysis, we first calculated the number of residents against the project by subtracting those in favor from the total attendees: \( 183 - 31 = 152 \). This simple arithmetic not only tells us how many opposed but also delineates the opposition strength.

Beyond basic subtraction, quantitative analysis may involve:
  • Calculating percentages - Quickly helps in grasping the weight of opinion (e.g., 16.94% in favor).
  • Comparing numbers - Like 152 opposed to 31 in favor, clearly highlighting the contrast in opinion.
  • Assessing trends over time - If repeat hearings occur, quantitative data can show whether opinion shifts.

Quantitative analysis cuts through the complexity of opinions to offer clear, numeric insights, aiding policy makers in their evaluations.
Public Policy Evaluation
Public policy evaluation involves assessing the public’s support or opposition to proposals that affect community welfare. In the context of the proposed prison project, understanding this concept helps in interpreting the city council's decision-making process. Evaluation of such a policy requires input from various segments of society, and public hearings can offer a glimpse into community sentiment.

Important components of public policy evaluation include:
  • Evaluating public input - Are the hearings and votes reflective of the wider community?
  • Understanding implications on community welfare - Would the prison truly benefit the economy?
  • Assessing long-term impacts - Consider potential future challenges or benefits of policy implementation.

Through careful evaluation, the city council can weigh the benefits and drawbacks of the proposed project. This helps ensure that decisions align with the public’s best interests, balancing economic growth with community concerns.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Death penalty, again In the survey on the death penalty you read about in the chapter, the Gallup Poll actually split the sample at random, asking 510 respondents the question quoted earlier, "Generally speaking, do you believe the death penalty is applied fairly or unfairly in this country today?" The other 510 were asked "Generally speaking, do you believe the death penalty is applied unfairly or fairly in this country today?" Seems like the same question, but sometimes the order of the choices matters. Asked the first question, \(58 \%\) said the death penalty was fairly applied; only \(54 \%\) said so with the second wording. a) What kind of bias may be present here? b) If we combine them, considering the overall group to be one larger random sample of 1020 respondents, what is a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of the general public that thinks the death penalty is being fairly applied? c) How does the margin of error based on this pooled sample compare with the margins of error from the separate groups? Why?

Teachers A 2011 Gallup poll found that \(76 \%\) of Americans believe that high achieving high school students should be recruited to become teachers. This poll was based on a random sample of 1002 Americans. a) Find a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who would agree with this. b) Interpret your interval in this context. c) Explain what "90\% confidence" means. d) Do these data refute a pundit's claim that \(2 / 3\) of Americans believe this statement? Explain.

Junk mail Direct mail advertisers send solicitations (a.k.a. "junk mail") to thousands of potential customers in the hope that some will buy the company's product. The acceptance rate is usually quite low. Suppose a company wants to test the response to a new flyer, and sends it to 1000 people randomly selected from their mailing list of over 200,000 people. They get orders from 123 of the recipients. a) Create a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the percentage of people the company contacts who may buy something. b) Explain what this interval means. c) Explain what "90\% confidence" means. d) The company must decide whether to now do a mass mailing. The mailing won't be cost-effective unless it produces at least a \(5 \%\) return. What does your confidence interval suggest? Explain.

Another pilot study During routine screening, a doctor notices that \(22 \%\) of her adult patients show higher than normal levels of glucose in their blood-a possible warning signal for diabetes. Hearing this, some medical researchers decide to conduct a large-scale study, hoping to estimate the proportion to within \(4 \%\) with \(98 \%\) confidence. How many randomly selected adults must they test?

More conditions Consider each situation described. Identify the population and the sample, explain what \(p\) and \(\hat{p}\) represent, and tell whether the methods of this chapter can be used to create a confidence interval. a) A consumer group hoping to assess customer experiences with auto dealers surveys 167 people who recently bought new cars; \(3 \%\) of them expressed dissatisfaction with the salesperson. b) What percent of college students have cell phones? 2883 students were asked as they entered a football stadium, and 243 said they had phones with them. c) 240 potato plants in a field in Maine are randomly checked, and only 7 show signs of blight. How severe is the blight problem for the U.S. potato industry? d) 12 of the 309 employees of a small company suffered an injury on the job last year. What can the company expect in future years?

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