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It is generally believed that nearsightedness affects about \(12 \%\) of all children. A school district has registered 170 incoming kindergarten children. a) Can you apply the Central Limit Theorem to describe the sampling distribution model for the sample proportion of children who are nearsighted? Check the conditions and discuss any assumptions you need to make. b) Sketch and clearly label the sampling model, based on the \(68-95-99.7\) Rule. c) How many of the incoming students might the school expect to be nearsighted? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, CLT applies; near 20 students may be nearsighted.

Step by step solution

01

State the Problem

We are given a situation where about 12% of all children are believed to be nearsighted. We are to determine if the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) can be applied to describe the sampling distribution of the sample proportion of nearsighted children out of 170 incoming kindergarten students. Then we must sketch the distribution according to the 68-95-99.7 rule, and find the expected number of nearsighted students.
02

Check the CLT Conditions

For the Central Limit Theorem to apply to proportions, we need to check the following conditions: 1. Random sample: Assume the 170 children are a random sample from the population. 2. Large enough sample size: We need both np and n(1-p) to be greater than 10, where n is the sample size and p is the population proportion. - Here, n = 170, p = 0.12. Calculate: np = 170 * 0.12 = 20.4 and n(1-p) = 170 * 0.88 = 149.6. - Both np and n(1-p) are greater than 10, so this condition is satisfied.
03

Describe the Sampling Distribution

With the conditions satisfied, the sampling distribution of the sample proportion can be modeled approximately as normal with mean \( \mu_{\hat{p}} = p = 0.12 \) and standard deviation \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.12 \times 0.88}{170}} \approx 0.025 \).
04

Sketch the Sampling Model

Sketch a normal distribution centered at 0.12:- According to the 68-95-99.7 Rule, about 68% of data falls within 1 standard deviation: \( 0.12 \pm 0.025 \)- 95% falls within 2 standard deviations: \( 0.12 \pm 0.05 \)- 99.7% falls within 3 standard deviations: \( 0.12 \pm 0.075 \)Label these ranges on your sketch.
05

Calculate Expected Number of Nearsighted Students

The expected number of nearsighted children is calculated by multiplying the sample size by the probability of a child being nearsighted: - Expected number = np = 170 * 0.12 = 20.4. This means the school can expect approximately 20 students to be nearsighted.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Distribution
When dealing with a large sample of data, the concept of sampling distribution becomes very important. A sampling distribution is essentially the probability distribution of a given statistic based on a random sample. In the context of the problem, we are looking at the sampling distribution of the sample proportion. This proportion tells us the fraction of the sampled kindergarten children who are nearsighted.

To apply the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) to our sample proportion, we must first ensure that certain conditions are met:
  • Randomness: Our sample of 170 children should be randomly selected from the population.
  • Sample Size: Both the expected number of children who are nearsighted (np) and not nearsighted (n(1-p)) should be greater than 10.
Once these conditions are fulfilled, we can assume that the sampling distribution of the sample proportion is approximately normally distributed.
Proportions
Proportions play a key role in understanding how specific parts relate to the whole. In this exercise, the proportion of nearsighted children is given as 12%, which represents the fraction of the total population of children who are affected by nearsightedness.

When dealing with proportions in statistics, especially within a sample, it's important to calculate two things: the sample proportion's mean and its standard deviation. The mean of the sample proportion (\( \mu_{\hat{p}} \) ) is denoted by the actual proportion (p), which is 0.12 in this case. The standard deviation (\( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \) ) is calculated using the formula:\[\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\]This formula provides insight into how much the sample proportion is expected to vary from sample to sample.
68-95-99.7 Rule
The 68-95-99.7 Rule, also known as the empirical rule, is a simple way to understand the distribution of data across a normal distribution.

By applying this rule, we know:
  • 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, calculated as \( 0.12 \pm 0.025 \)
  • 95% of the data falls within two standard deviations, \( 0.12 \pm 0.05 \)
  • 99.7% of the data is within three standard deviations, \( 0.12 \pm 0.075 \)
In this problem, with the sample mean at 0.12 and a standard deviation of approximately 0.025, we can confidently predict where most of the sample proportions will fall. This knowledge lets us sketch a pretty precise model of what our sampling distribution would look like.
Expected Value Calculation
Expected value is a key concept in probability and statistics, representing the average outcome one can anticipate from a random event over many trials.

For the question at hand, we calculate the expected number of nearsighted children by multiplying the population proportion of nearsightedness (0.12) by the total number of students (170):\[\text{Expected number } = np = 170 \times 0.12 = 20.4\]The expected value here, 20.4, indicates that, on average, about 20 nearsighted children are anticipated among the 170 kindergarten students. It offers a reasonable estimate with the understanding that actual results might vary slightly from this average.

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