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Bad medicine Occasionally, a report comes out that a drug that cures some disease turns out to have a nasty side effect. For example, some antidepressant drugs may cause suicidal thoughts in younger patients. A researcher wants to study such a drug and look for evidence of a side effect. a. If the test yields a low P-value and the researcher rejects the null hypothesis, but there is actually no ill side effect of the drug, what are the consequences of such an error? b. If the test yields a high \(\mathrm{P}\) -value and the researcher fails to reject the null hypothesis, but there is a bad side effect of the drug, what are the consequences of such an error?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Part (a) - The drug would be deemed as harmful when it is not, leading to unnecessary anxiety and avoidance of a beneficial medication. Part (b) - The drug would be deemed as safe when it is not, potentially leading to harm for patients using the drug as the ill side effect would not be identified and addressed.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Null and Alternative Hypotheses

In this context, the Null Hypothesis would assume that the drug does not have a harmful side effect, while the Alternative Hypothesis would assume that the drug does have a harmful side effect.
02

Understanding Type I error for Part (a)

A Type I error occurs when the null hypothesis is true (i.e., there's no harmful side effect of the drug), but it's rejected. This is known as a 'false positive'. To answer part (a), if a low P-value is obtained and the researcher wrongly rejects the null hypothesis, the consequence of such an error is that the drug will be deemed harmful when it is actually not. This could lead to unnecessary anxiety and avoidance of a potentially beneficial medication.
03

Understanding Type II error for Part (b)

A Type II error occurs when the null hypothesis is false (i.e., there's a harmful side effect), but it's not rejected. This is known as a 'false negative'. To answer part (b), if a high P-value is obtained and the researcher wrongly fails to reject the null hypothesis, the consequence of such an error is that the drug will be deemed safe when it actually has a harmful side effect. This could potentially lead to harm for patients using the drug, as the side effect would not be identified and addressed.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

P-value
The P-value, or probability value, plays a pivotal role in the realm of statistical hypothesis testing. It quantifies the probability that the observed data would occur if the null hypothesis were true. In simpler terms, it tells us how likely it is to get results as extreme as the ones we've obtained just by random chance.

The smaller the P-value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis. Conventionally, if the P-value is lower than a predetermined threshold, often set at 0.05, researchers may conclude that the observed effects are statistically significant and not just due to random variation. This threshold is called the 'significance level'. However, it's important to remember that the P-value does not measure the size of an effect or its importance, only how likely it is to have occurred by chance.
Type I error
A Type I error, also known as a false positive, occurs when a true null hypothesis is incorrectly rejected. To visualize this, consider a fire alarm going off without a fire – it's a false alarm. The consequences can be significant, especially in medical research. For example, declaring a safe drug to be harmful could prevent patients from receiving beneficial treatment.

When researchers set a low significance level, such as 0.01, they are being extra cautious about not making a Type I error. However, even with careful planning, there's always a trade-off. By seeking to avoid Type I errors, researchers might be more likely to encounter Type II errors.
Type II error
In contrast, a Type II error, or false negative, happens when the null hypothesis is not rejected even though it's false. Think of this as not hearing the fire alarm when there is actually a fire. In medical terms, this might mean overlooking a drug's harmful side effect, thus allowing continued use of a dangerous medication, posing serious risks to patient health.

To minimize Type II errors, scientists might require a larger sample size or conduct more sensitive tests. But just like Type I errors, it's impossible to completely eliminate the risk of Type II errors. The key is to balance the risks of both Type I and Type II errors in the context of the consequences of these errors.
Null hypothesis
The null hypothesis is a default position that posits there is no relationship or effect present in the population. In the given scenario, the null hypothesis would state that the antidepressant drug does not cause suicidal thoughts among younger patients. It represents a skeptical perspective, a kind of 'innocent until proven guilty' stance in the world of statistics.

It's the starting point for many statistical tests, which aim to either provide evidence against this hypothesis or fail to find sufficient proof to do so. Being clear and specific about the null hypothesis is imperative since its formulation lays the groundwork for the entire hypothesis testing process.
Alternative hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis contradicts the null hypothesis and represents what a researcher aims to support. This hypothesis suggests that there is a statistically significant effect or relationship. In our exercise, the alternative hypothesis claims that the antidepressant medication does induce suicidal thoughts in younger patients.

When statisticians perform tests, they aren't 'proving' the alternative hypothesis directly. Instead, they're examining the evidence against the null hypothesis. If the null is rejected, then researchers may infer the validity of the alternative hypothesis. It's a process of elimination, not direct confirmation.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A test preparation company claims that more than \(50 \%\) of the students who take their GRE prep course improve their scores by at least 10 points. a. Is the alternative to the null hypothesis more naturally one-sided or two- sided? Explain. b. A test run with randomly selected participants gives a P-value of 0.981 . What do you conclude? c. What would you have concluded if the \(\mathrm{P}\) -value had been \(0.019 ?\)

Jury Census data for a certain county show that \(19 \%\) of the adult residents are Hispanic. Suppose 72 people are called for jury duty and only 9 of them are Hispanic. Does this apparent underrepresentation of Hispanics call into question the fairness of the iurv selection svstem? Explain.

Hypotheses and parameters As in Exercise 3 ?, for each of the following situations, define the parameter and write the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of parameter values. a. Seat-belt compliance in Massachusetts was \(65 \%\) in 2008. The state wants to know if it has changed. b. Last year, a survey found that \(45 \%\) of the employees were willing to pay for on-site day care. The company wants to know if that has changed. c. Regular card customers have a default rate of \(6.7 \% .\) A credit card bank wants to know if that rate is different for their Gold card customers. d. Regular card customers have been with the company for an average of 17.3 months. The credit card bank wants to know if their Gold card customers have been with the company on average the same amount of time.

Expensive medicine Developing a new drug can be an expensive process, resulting in high costs to patients. A pharmaceutical company has developed a new drug to reduce cholesterol, and it will conduct a clinical trial to compare the effectiveness to the most widely used current treatment. The results will be analyzed using a hypothesis test. a. If the test yields a low P-value and the researcher rejects the null hypothesis that the new drug is not more effective, but it actually is not better, what are the consequences of such an error? b. If the test yields a high \(\mathrm{P}\) -value and the researcher fails to reject the null hypothesis, but the new drug is more effective, what are the consequences of such an error?

Parameters and hypotheses For each of the following situations, define the parameter (proportion or mean) and write the null and alternative hypotheses in terms of parameter values. Example: We want to know if the proportion of up days in the stock market is \(50 \% .\) Answer: Let \(p=\) the proportion of up days. \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: p=0.5 \mathrm{vs} . \mathrm{H}_{\mathrm{A}}: p \neq 0.5\) a. A casino wants to know if their slot machine really delivers the 1 in 100 win rate that it claims. b. Last year, customers spent an average of \(\$ 35.32\) per visit to the company's website. Based on a random sample of purchases this year, the company wants to know if the mean this year has changed. c. A pharmaceutical company wonders if their new drug has a cure rate different from the \(30 \%\) reported by the placebo. d. A bank wants to know if the percentage of customers using their website has changed from the \(40 \%\) that used it before their system crashed last week.

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