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Another pilot study During routine screening, a doctor notices that \(22 \%\) of her adult patients show higher than normal levels of glucose in their blood-a possible warning signal for diabetes. Hearing this, some medical researchers decide to conduct a large-scale study, hoping to estimate the proportion to within \(4 \%\) with \(98 \%\) confidence. How many randomly selected adults must they test?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The number of adults to test should be 973. Since it's not possible to test a fraction of a person, the answer needs to be rounded up to the nearest whole number.

Step by step solution

01

Formulate the problem

The goal is to find out the sample size (n) necessary to achieve a specified confidence level and error tolerance for estimating a proportion. The sample size can be found using the formula: \[ n = Z^{2}P(1 - P) / E^{2} \] where: \n\(Z\) = Z value (The Z-value is a figure representing the number of standard deviations from the mean i.e., the standard normal deviate). The Z value for a \(98 \% \) confidence level is \(2.33\) (This value can be found in statistical tables which give the value of \(Z\) matching up with the desired confidence level).\n\(P\) = preliminary estimate of a proportion (in decimal form)\n\(E\) = desired level of precision (in decimal form)
02

Plug in the known values

In this case, \(P = 0.22\), \(Z = 2.33\), and \(E = 0.04\). Substitute these values into the formula to calculate the necessary sample size.
03

Calculate the sample size

Substitute the known values into the formula and perform the calculations:\[ n = (2.33)^{2} * 0.22 * (1 - 0.22) / (0.04)^{2} = 972.77 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Interval
In statistics, the confidence interval is a range of values used to estimate a certain parameter. For example, it might be the proportion of a population possessing a certain characteristic.
The confidence interval provides a range, so that given a certain confidence level, the true proportion is expected to fall within this range. It is typically given in the form of percentage, such as 95% or 98%, which indicates the degree of certainty that the estimate falls within the specified range.
When designing a study or evaluating data, choosing the right confidence level is important. A higher confidence level indicates a broader interval, reflecting more certainty in the estimate. However, this requires a larger sample size.
For example, in our original exercise, a 98% confidence level is chosen, which provides a very high degree of confidence in the result but demands a larger sample because the researchers want to be very sure about their estimate.
Proportion Estimation
Proportion estimation deals with determining what fraction of a population possesses a particular attribute or characteristic. It's a common task in studies that aim to draw conclusions about larger groups based on sample data.
The estimation process involves calculating a sample proportion, which serves as an estimate of the true population proportion. This is expressed in decimal form, for example, 0.22 means 22% of the population.
A preliminary estimate is often used when planning a study, as it helps to determine the necessary sample size. In the example given, researchers started with an estimated proportion of 0.22 to determine how many participants they would need to survey to achieve their desired accuracy.
The formula for determining the necessary sample size takes this preliminary estimate into account, ensuring that the final sample size is sufficient to make a precise and reliable estimate. This balance between precision and sample size is key in statistical studies.
Statistical Study Design
Statistical study design is integral in achieving accurate and reliable results. It involves planning how to collect, analyze, and interpret data effectively.
One crucial aspect is defining the study goals, like estimating a population proportion as in the provided exercise. Researchers must also decide the level of precision and the confidence that they want to achieve.
In addition, choosing a random sample is vital to ensure the data collected is representative of the entire population. This helps mitigate bias, ensuring the findings are generalizable.
The study should be designed to accommodate the specific statistical techniques, such as determining the sample size based on confidence intervals and desired precision. For those measures, understanding and applying the correct formulas is critical to study success.
Ultimately, a well-designed study produces data that are precise, accurate, and useful in addressing the research questions posed by the investigators.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Conclusions A catalog sales company promises to deliver orders placed on the Internet within 3 days. Follow-up calls to a few randomly selected customers show that a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of all orders that arrive on time is \(88 \% \pm 6 \%\). What does this mean? Are these conclusions correct? Explain. a. Between \(82 \%\) and \(94 \%\) of all orders arrive on time. b. Ninety-five percent of all random samples of customers will show that \(88 \%\) of orders arrive on time. c. Ninety-five percent of all random samples of customers will show that \(82 \%\) to \(94 \%\) of orders arrive on time. d. We are \(95 \%\) sure that between \(82 \%\) and \(94 \%\) of the orders placed by the sampled customers arrived on time. e. On \(95 \%\) of the days, between \(82 \%\) and \(94 \%\) of the orders will arrive on time.

Baseball fans In a poll taken in December 2012, Gallup asked 1006 national adults whether they were baseball fans; \(48 \%\) said they were. Almost five years earlier, in February \(2008,\) only \(35 \%\) of a similar-size sample had reported being baseball fans. a. Find the margin of error for the 2012 poll if we want \(90 \%\) confidence in our estimate of the percent of national adults who are baseball fans. b. Explain what that margin of error means. c. If we wanted to be \(99 \%\) confident, would the margin of error be larger or smaller? Explain. d. Find that margin of error. e. In general, if all other aspects of the situation remain the same, will smaller margins of error produce greater or less confidence in the interval?

Hiring In preparing a report on the economy, we need to estimate the percentage of businesses that plan to hire additional employees in the next 60 days. a. How many randomly selected employers must we contact in order to create an estimate in which we are \(98 \%\) confident with a margin of error of \(5 \% ?\) b. Suppose we want to reduce the margin of error to \(3 \%\). What sample size will suffice? C. Why might it not be worth the effort to try to get an interval with a margin of error of only \(1 \% ?\)

Teenage drivers An insurance company checks police records on 582 accidents selected at random and notes that teenagers were at the wheel in 91 of them. a. Create a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the percentage of all auto accidents that involve teenage drivers. b. Explain what your interval means. c. Explain what "95\% confidence" means. d. A politician urging tighter restrictions on drivers' licenses issued to teens says, "In one of every five auto accidents, a teenager is behind the wheel." Does your confidence interval support or contradict this statement? Explain.

Another margin of error A medical researcher estimates the percentage of children exposed to lead-based paint, adding that he believes his estimate has a margin of error of about \(3 \%\). Explain what the margin of error means.

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