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Happy workers? A manufacturing company employs 14 project managers, 48 supervisors, and 377 laborers. In an effort to keep informed about any possible sources of employee discontent, management wants to conduct job satisfaction interviews with a sample of employees every month. a. Do you see any potential danger in the company's plan? Explain. b. Propose a sampling strategy that uses a simple random sample. c. Why do you think a simple random sample might not provide the representative opinion the company seeks? d. Propose a better sampling strategy. e. Listed below are the last names of the project managers. Use random numbers to select two people to be interviewed. Explain your method carefully.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The danger in the company's plan is the risk of disproportionate sampling leading to biased results. A simple random sample would not counter this issue as it doesn't account for the proportion of each group. The proposed Stratified random sampling addresses this by ensuring representation from each stratum (project managers, supervisors, laborers). Random numbers can be assigned to project managers in alphabetical order and two of these can be chosen using a random number generator for the interview.

Step by step solution

01

Analyze the Company's Plan

Looking at the plan proposed by the company, it appears they wish to conduct job satisfaction interviews with a random selection of their employees. The potential danger could be that the sampling might not be proportionate among the different types of employees, resulting in biased results. The strategy would need to consider the proportion of each role within the company to ensure a representative sample.
02

Propose a Simple Random Sample Strategy

A simple random sample could be obtained by assigning a unique number to every employee regardless of their role and then randomly selecting the required number of employees for the interviews. However, this approach could lead to over representation or under representation of any particular group.
03

Limitations of a Simple Random Sample

A simple random sample might not be representative as it does not take into account the proportion of each type of employee within the company. While it is random, there might be a case where no project manager or too many laborers are selected, leading to biased results.
04

Propose a Better Sampling Strategy

A better approach would be to use Stratified random sampling. In this approach, the population is divided into groups (strata) that differ in important ways. Here, the different employee types (project managers, supervisors, laborers) would be different strata. A simple random sample is drawn from each stratum separately. This will ensure a proportionate representation from each group.
05

Select two project managers using a Random Sampling Strategy

Let's say the defined method of assigning random numbers is using a random number generator that matches the count of the project manager group. After the numbers are assigned to each project manager according to their last names in an alphabetical order, two numbers are randomly selected using the generator. The project managers corresponding to those numbers will be chosen for the interview.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Simple Random Sampling
Simple Random Sampling is a method where each member of a population has an equal chance of being selected. Imagine you write down every employee's name on separate slips of paper, place them all into a hat, and draw names from it. Every person has the same probability of being drawn.

Simple Random Sampling is straightforward and minimizes human bias in selection, making it a popular choice for many statistical tasks.
  • Ensures fairness: Every individual has the same chance of selection.
  • No sub-group guarantee: It might not effectively represent all sub-groups proportionally.
  • Suitable for homogeneous populations: Works best in groups where the members are very similar.
Despite its advantages, one of the main concerns with Simple Random Sampling is that it might create a sample that doesn't adequately reflect the diversity of the whole population. In the context of the exercise, the company could end up selecting a sample where one group is over or under-represented.
Stratified Sampling
Stratified Sampling addresses the limitations of Simple Random Sampling by dividing the population into sub-groups known as strata. Each stratum contains members that share similar characteristics. For the company's employees, this could mean creating separate strata for project managers, supervisors, and laborers.

Once the strata are defined, a random sample is taken from each group. This guarantees representation from all parts of the population.
  • Ensures representation from all strata: Every group is proportionally included.
  • Reduces sampling error: By acknowledging differences between strata, it gathers a more precise overall picture.
  • Ideal for heterogeneous populations: Best for groups with diverse characteristics.
When employed correctly, Stratified Sampling can produce a more accurate reflection of the whole population's opinions, making it a superior choice in many situations, such as the job satisfaction survey from the exercise.
Representative Sample
A Representative Sample accurately reflects the demographics or characteristics of the entire population. Imagine conducting a survey where every subgroup within a population is included in the proportion that represents their presence in the larger group. This ensures that the insights drawn from the sample can be generalized to the entire population.

For example, if a company employs 10% managers, a representative sample should also ideally consist of 10% managers.
  • Accurate insight: Reflects the larger group accurately.
  • Dependable data: Results from the sample can reliably predict the whole population.
  • Prevents biases: Aims to include all necessary sub-groups.
In the exercise mentioned, a representative sample would ensure that each job role within the company is involved, allowing for more reliable job satisfaction results.
Biased Results
Biased Results occur when there's a systematic error in the selection of a sample, leading to conclusions that don't accurately reflect the true conditions of the population being studied. This can happen when some sections of the population are overrepresented or underrepresented.

In our exercise, if the company focuses only on a simple random sample, there's a possibility that some roles, such as project managers or supervisors, might be selected too few or too often, skewing the results.
  • Can mislead: Results don't truthfully represent the population.
  • Impact decisions: Misleading data can lead to poor decision-making.
  • Need careful design: Avoided through a considered approach like stratified sampling.
Understanding and avoiding biased results ensures that any actions or decisions based on the surveyed data are beneficial and truly reflective of the entire group. By choosing methods like Stratified Sampling, you can avoid such biases and ensure more reliable outcomes.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Survey questions Examine each of the following questions for possible bias. If you think the question is biased, indicate how and propose a better question. a. Should companies that pollute the environment be compelled to pay the costs of cleanup? b. Given that 18 -year-olds are old enough to vote and to serve in the military, is it fair to set the drinking age at \(21 ?\)

Mistaken poll A local TV station conducted a "PulsePoll" about the upcoming mayoral election. Evening news viewers were invited to text in their votes, with the results to be announced on the late-night news. Based on the texts, the station predicted that Amabo would win the election with \(52 \%\) of the vote. They were wrong: Amabo lost, getting only \(46 \%\) of the vote. Do you think the station's faulty prediction is more likely to be a result of bias or sampling error? Explain.

Arm length How long is your arm compared with your hand size? Put your right thumb at your left shoulder bone, stretch your hand open wide, and extend your hand down your arm. Put your thumb at the place where your little finger is, and extend down the arm again. Repeat this a third time. Now your little finger will probably have reached the back of your left hand. If your arm is less than four hand widths, turn your hand sideways and count finger widths until you reach the end of your middle finger. a. How many hand and finger widths is your arm? b. Suppose you repeat your measurement 10 times and average your results. What parameter would this average estimate? What is the population? c. Suppose you now collect arm lengths measured in this way from 9 friends and average these 10 measurements. What is the population now? What parameter would this average estimate? d. Do you think these 10 arm lengths are likely to be representative of the population of arm lengths in your community? In the country? Why or why not?

Sampling students A professor teaching a large lecture class of 350 students samples her class by rolling a die. Then, starting with the row number on the die (1 to 6 ), she passes out a survey to every fourth row of the large lecture hall. She says that this is a simple random sample because everyone had an equal opportunity to sit in any seat and because she randomized the choice of rows. What do you think? Be specific.

Student samples The university administration of Exercise 1 ? is considering a variety of ways to sample students for a survey. For each of these proposed survey designs, identify the problem. a. Publish an advertisement inviting students to visit a website and answer questions. b. Set up a table in the student union and ask students to stop and answer a survey.

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