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Use the t-distribution to find a confidence interval for a mean \(\mu\) given the relevant sample results. Give the best point estimate for \(\mu,\) the margin of error, and the confidence interval. Assume the results come from a random sample from a population that is approximately normally distributed. A \(90 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) using the sample results \(\bar{x}=3.1, s=0.4,\) and \(n=100\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The best point estimate for \(\mu\) is the sample mean, so 3.1. The margin of error is 0.0664. The 90% confidence interval for \(\mu\) is (3.0336 , 3.1664).

Step by step solution

01

Determine the Degrees of Freedom and the t-value

The degrees of freedom for a sample size of 100 is \(df= n - 1 = 100 - 1 = 99\). For a 90% confidence level, the t-value is approximately 1.66 (which you would find in a t-distribution table or by using statistical software).
02

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) is the standard deviation (0.4) divided by the square root of the sample size (100). Therefore, \(SE = 0.4/10 = 0.04\).
03

Calculate the Margin of Error

To find the margin of error (ME), multiply the t-value (1.66) by the standard error (0.04). So, \(ME = 1.66 * 0.04 = 0.0664\).
04

Calculate the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval (CI) is the sample mean (3.1) +\/- the margin of error (0.0664). Therefore, \(CI = (3.1 - 0.0664 , 3.1 + 0.0664) = (3.0336 , 3.1664)\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Degrees of Freedom
In statistics, when we refer to 'degrees of freedom' (df), we are discussing the number of independent data points in a dataset that are free to vary when estimating a statistical parameter. This concept is critical, especially when working with sample data to make inferences about a population.

Imagine working with a puzzle; each piece you place can be anywhere until you lock the border. Once the frame is secured, only a certain number of pieces can fit in the remaining space. Similarly, in a statistical sample of size 'n', the last piece of data is not free to vary once the sample mean is known if we're trying to keep the mean constant. This results in 'n-1' degrees of freedom, where 'n' is the sample size. In the given exercise, with a sample size of 100, the degrees of freedom are therefore calculated by subtracting one from the sample size, yielding 99 degrees of freedom.

Using the right 'df' is crucial for accuracy in statistical testing, such as finding the correct t-value for establishing confidence intervals; it ensures that we accurately account for the sample’s variability. The higher the 'df', the closer the t-distribution approximates the standard normal distribution.
Margin of Error
The 'margin of error' (ME) quantifies the range within which the true population parameter is expected to lie with a certain level of confidence. It absorbs the potential for error in a statistic and informs us about how much the estimate might vary if we were to take multiple samples.

The calculation of the margin of error incorporates the standard error and the critical value from the t-distribution, which reflects both the desired level of confidence and the degrees of freedom. In the textbook exercise, after determining a t-value of approximately 1.66 for a 90% confidence level with 99 degrees of freedom, the margin of error is found by multiplying it by the standard error of the sample mean.

Standard Error
Think of 'standard error' (SE) as a measure of how spread out the possible values of your sample mean are around the true population mean. It is closely tied to the sample's standard deviation (a measure of variability) but adjusted for the sample size. The standard error diminishes with larger sample sizes because having more data points gives a more precise estimate of the population mean.

In practice, the standard error is computed by dividing the sample's standard deviation by the square root of the sample size. Using the textbook exercise's data, given a sample standard deviation (s) of 0.4 and a size (n) of 100, the standard error was 0.04. This low standard error implies that the sample mean is likely a reliable estimate of the population mean, which enhances confidence in the resulting confidence interval derived using both the standard error and the margin of error.

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