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91Ó°ÊÓ

In a test to see whether there is a positive linear relationship between age and nose size, the study indicates that " \(p<0.001\)."

Short Answer

Expert verified
The p-value of less than 0.001 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis that there is no relationship between age and nose size. Therefore, according to the results, there is a statistically significant positive linear relationship between age and nose size.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Null Hypothesis, Alternative Hypothesis and p-value

Firstly, it's necessary to understand that for any hypothesis test, the hypothesis being tested, called the null hypothesis, generally states that there is no effect or relationship between the variables under study. The alternative hypothesis states that there is an effect or relationship. In this context, the null hypothesis is that there is no relationship between age and nose size. The p-value, which is a result of the test, tells us the strength of evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. A smaller p-value indicates stronger evidence against the null hypothesis.
02

Interpret the p-value

In this exercise, the study indicates that ' \(p<0.001\)'. This is a very small value, which means that there is less than 1 in 1,000 chance that the observed correlation between age and nose size occurred by random chance, if the null hypothesis is true; in other words, if there is in fact no relationship between age and nose size. Thus, such a small p-value provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis, and supports the alternative hypothesis – that there is a relationship between age and nose size.
03

Conclude the Analysis

Based on the small p-value, we reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Thus, according to the study, there is a statistically significant positive linear relationship between age and nose size.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
When it comes to hypothesis testing in statistics, the null hypothesis, symbolized as 'H0', is a fundamental starting point. It's a statement of no effect, no difference, or no relationship between the variables we are studying. Think of the null hypothesis as the skeptical viewpoint or the assumption that any observed patterns are due to chance rather than any actual effect.

In the context of our exercise, the null hypothesis posits that there is no positive linear relationship between age and nose size. Essentially, it assumes that whatever differences or correlations we might observe in the data could just as well have occurred when there is actually no underlying relationship at all.
Alternative Hypothesis
Contrasting the null hypothesis is the alternative hypothesis, represented as 'H1'. This hypothesis is a statement that suggests a potential effect, difference, or relationship exists. Where the null is the voice of skepticism, the alternative is one of optimism about there being a meaningful discovery to be made.

For the exercise, our alternative hypothesis asserts that a positive linear relationship does exist between age and nose size. It embodies our scientific curiosity and search for patterns that have a real-world explanation. If we find evidence against the null hypothesis, we edge closer to accepting the alternative hypothesis.
P-Value Interpretation
The p-value is a crucial concept in statistics, serving as a bridge between our observed data and the hypotheses we've set forth. It's a probability that quantifies how likely we are to observe our data—or something more extreme—if the null hypothesis is actually true. The smaller the p-value, the stronger the evidence against the null hypothesis.

In our exercise, the notation 'p<0.001' suggests an extremely small chance that the data supporting a relationship between age and nose size occurred if the null hypothesis were true. It indicates a very low probability that the observed relationship is just a fluke. Thus, when we say a p-value is less than 0.001, we're describing a strong statistical argument against the null hypothesis, rendering it unlikely and leaning towards the alternative hypothesis.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is about determining whether the results of our analysis are due to something other than mere random chance. It often involves setting a threshold, called the significance level (commonly denoted as alpha, 'α'), before conducting a test. A result is statistically significant if the p-value is smaller than the chosen alpha.

In many social sciences, an alpha of 0.05 is used, but this can vary by field. In the context of our age and nose size study, the p-value is less than 0.001, which is way below the conventional threshold of 0.05. Hence, we consider our results statistically significant, leading us to reject the null hypothesis and concluding that there is a significant positive linear relationship between age and nose size.
Linear Relationship
A linear relationship between two variables means that as one variable changes, the other variable tends to change in a consistent way, and this change can typically be described using a straight line, or linear equation. In simpler terms, if there's a linear relationship between age and nose size, as people get older, we could expect nose size to predictably change in a specific direction—either increasing or decreasing.

Statistical tests, like the one mentioned in our exercise, are used to detect the presence and strength of linear relationships. Finding a 'statistically significant' result as we did suggests not just any random pattern, but a consistent increase or decrease along a linear path between the two variables being analyzed.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Match the four \(\mathrm{p}\) -values with the appropriate conclusion: (a) The evidence against the null hypothesis is significant, but only at the \(10 \%\) level. (b) The evidence against the null and in favor of the alternative is very strong. (c) There is not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis, even at the \(10 \%\) level. (d) The result is significant at a \(5 \%\) level but not at a \(1 \%\) level. I. 0.0875 II. 0.5457 III. 0.0217 IV. \(\quad 0.00003\)

In this exercise, we see that it is possible to use counts instead of proportions in testing a categorical variable. Data 4.7 describes an experiment to investigate the effectiveness of the two drugs desipramine and lithium in the treatment of cocaine addiction. The results of the study are summarized in Table 4.14 on page \(323 .\) The comparison of lithium to the placebo is the subject of Example 4.34 . In this exercise, we test the success of desipramine against a placebo using a different statistic than that used in Example 4.34. Let \(p_{d}\) and \(p_{c}\) be the proportion of patients who relapse in the desipramine group and the control group, respectively. We are testing whether desipramine has a lower relapse rate then a placebo. (a) What are the null and alternative hypotheses? (b) From Table 4.14 we see that 20 of the 24 placebo patients relapsed, while 10 of the 24 desipramine patients relapsed. The observed difference in relapses for our sample is $$\begin{aligned}D &=\text { desipramine relapses }-\text { placebo relapses } \\\&=10-20=-10\end{aligned}$$ If we use this difference in number of relapses as our sample statistic, where will the randomization distribution be centered? Why? (c) If the null hypothesis is true (and desipramine has no effect beyond a placebo), we imagine that the 48 patients have the same relapse behavior regardless of which group they are in. We create the randomization distribution by simulating lots of random assignments of patients to the two groups and computing the difference in number of desipramine minus placebo relapses for each assignment. Describe how you could use index cards to create one simulated sample. How many cards do you need? What will you put on them? What will you do with them?

An article noted that it may be possible to accurately predict which way a penalty-shot kicker in soccer will direct his shot. \({ }^{27}\) The study finds that certain types of body language by a soccer player \(-\) called "tells"-can be accurately read to predict whether the ball will go left or right. For a given body movement leading up to the kick, the question is whether there is strong evidence that the proportion of kicks that go right is significantly different from one-half. (a) What are the null and alternative hypotheses in this situation? (b) If sample results for one type of body movement give a p-value of 0.3184 , what is the conclusion of the test? Should a goalie learn to distinguish this movement? (c) If sample results for a different type of body movement give a p-value of \(0.0006,\) what is the conclusion of the test? Should a goalie learn to distinguish this movement?

Data 4.3 on page 265 discusses a test to determine if the mean level of arsenic in chicken meat is above 80 ppb. If a restaurant chain finds significant evidence that the mean arsenic level is above \(80,\) the chain will stop using that supplier of chicken meat. The hypotheses are $$ \begin{array}{ll} H_{0}: & \mu=80 \\ H_{a}: & \mu>80 \end{array} $$ where \(\mu\) represents the mean arsenic level in all chicken meat from that supplier. Samples from two different suppliers are analyzed, and the resulting p-values are given: Sample from Supplier A: p-value is 0.0003 Sample from Supplier B: p-value is 0.3500 (a) Interpret each p-value in terms of the probability of the results happening by random chance. (b) Which p-value shows stronger evidence for the alternative hypothesis? What does this mean in terms of arsenic and chickens? (c) Which supplier, \(A\) or \(B\), should the chain get chickens from in order to avoid too high a level of arsenic?

The consumption of caffeine to benefit alertness is a common activity practiced by \(90 \%\) of adults in North America. Often caffeine is used in order to replace the need for sleep. One study \(^{24}\) compares students' ability to recall memorized information after either the consumption of caffeine or a brief sleep. A random sample of 35 adults (between the ages of 18 and 39 ) were randomly divided into three groups and verbally given a list of 24 words to memorize. During a break, one of the groups takes a nap for an hour and a half, another group is kept awake and then given a caffeine pill an hour prior to testing, and the third group is given a placebo. The response variable of interest is the number of words participants are able to recall following the break. The summary statistics for the three groups are in Table 4.9. We are interested in testing whether there is evidence of a difference in average recall ability between any two of the treatments. Thus we have three possible tests between different pairs of groups: Sleep vs Caffeine, Sleep vs Placebo, and Caffeine vs Placebo. (a) In the test comparing the sleep group to the caffeine group, the p-value is \(0.003 .\) What is the conclusion of the test? In the sample, which group had better recall ability? According to the test results, do you think sleep is really better than caffeine for recall ability? (b) In the test comparing the sleep group to the placebo group, the p-value is 0.06 . What is the conclusion of the test using a \(5 \%\) significance level? If we use a \(10 \%\) significance level? How strong is the evidence of a difference in mean recall ability between these two treatments? (c) In the test comparing the caffeine group to the placebo group, the p-value is 0.22 . What is the conclusion of the test? In the sample, which group had better recall ability? According to the test results, would we be justified in concluding that caffeine impairs recall ability? (d) According to this study, what should you do before an exam that asks you to recall information?

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