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In a survey on supernatural experiences, 722 of 4013 adult Americans surveyed reported that they had seen or been with a ghost ( 7 What Supernatural Experiences We've Had," USA Today. February 8. 2010). a. What assumption must be made in order for it to be appropriate to use the formula of this section to construct a confidence interval to estimate the proportion of all adult Americans who have seen or been with a ghost? b. Construct and interpret a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of all adult Americans who have scen or been with a ghost. c. Would a \(99 \%\) confidence interval be narrower or wider than the interval compured in Part (b)? Justify your answer.

Short Answer

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a) The assumption required is that the sample surveyed (4013 adult Americans) is a random, representative sample of all adult Americans. b) The 90% confidence interval is a calculated range of values between which we are 90% confident that the true proportion of adult Americans who had a ghost experience falls. c) A 99% confidence interval is wider than a 90% confidence interval as we allow for more possibilities to increase our assurance that the true proportion falls within our range.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Assumption

The assumption that should be made to construct a confidence interval is that the sample surveyed (4013 adult Americans) is a random sample and is representative of the population. In other words, every adult American had an equal chance of being picked for the survey.
02

Compute 90% Confidence Interval

To construct a \(90\%\) confidence interval for the proportion, first calculate the sample proportion (p), which is the number of successes (reports of ghost encounters) divided by the total number of trials (total surveyed) i.e., \(p = \frac{722}{4013} = 0.18\). The formula for a 90% confidence interval for a proportion is \(p \pm z*\sqrt{\frac{(p)(1 - p)}{n}}\) where \(z\) is the z-score, which can be found in z-tables (for 90% CI, \(z = 1.645\)) and \(n\) is the total number surveyed. Substituting known values, calculate the confidence interval.
03

Interpret 90% Confidence Interval

The 90% Confidence Interval would give a range of values. We can say that we are 90% confident that the actual proportion of adult Americans who have seen or been with a ghost lies within this interval.
04

Compare with 99% Confidence Interval

A \(99\%\) confidence interval would be wider than a \(90\%\) confidence interval. This is because the level of confidence suggests how sure we are that the parameter lies within the interval. So, a higher level of confidence would mean a wider interval to account for more possibilities to increase our confidence that the true proportion is within our interval.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
In statistics, the sample proportion is a fundamental concept when working with binomial data. It represents the fraction of respondents in a sample that meet a specific condition. In the survey described, the sample proportion tells us the fraction of people who reported having a supernatural experience. To calculate it, divide the number of people who had the experience by the total number of surveyed individuals.

Using our survey details as an example, the reported experiences were 722 out of 4013 surveyed. Thus, the sample proportion, denoted as \( p \), can be calculated as \( p = \frac{722}{4013} \approx 0.18 \), or 18%. This proportion is an estimate of the true proportion in the larger population.
Random Sample
A random sample is essential for accurate representation in statistics. It ensures that every member of the entire population has an equal chance of being chosen. For the survey on supernatural experiences, assuming a random sample means that every American adult had an equal opportunity of participating in the survey.

This principle of random sampling helps eliminate bias, ensuring that the survey results can be more generalizable to the entire population. If the sample wasn't random, some groups might be over- or under-represented, leading to skewed or invalid results.
Z-Score
The concept of a Z-score is pivotal in constructing confidence intervals. A Z-score indicates how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. In constructing a confidence interval, the Z-score helps determine the range around the sample proportion where the true population proportion is likely to fall.

For a 90% confidence interval, the standard Z-score used is approximately 1.645. This value is found from statistical Z-tables, which provide the necessary threshold to ensure the specified level of statistical confidence. Thus, the Z-score is integral to calculating the interval's width and subsequently the level of confidence in the results.
Population Parameter
A population parameter is a value that represents an entire population, often estimated from a sample. For our case, the population parameter of interest is the true proportion of all adult Americans who have seen or been with a ghost.

Since it is typically impossible to survey every individual, we use the sample's proportion as an estimate or a point estimator of this population parameter. Through statistical methods, like constructing a confidence interval, we aim to estimate this parameter with a specified degree of accuracy. The confidence interval provides a range within which we are fairly certain the true population parameter lies, giving us insight into the population based on our sample.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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