/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 7 The Associated Press (San Luis O... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The Associated Press (San Luis Obispo TelegramTribune, August 23. 1995) reported on the results of mass screening of schoolchildren for tuberculosis (TB). It was reported that for Santa Clara County, California, the proportion of all tested kindergartners who were found to have TB was .0006 . The corresponding proportion for recent immigrants (thought to be a high-risk group) was .0075. Suppose that a Santa Clara County kindergartner is to be selected at random. Are the outcomes selected student is a recent immigrant and selected student has \(T B\) independent or dependent outcomes? Justify your answer using the given information.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Thus, based on the calculation, the events 'selected student is a recent immigrant' and 'selected student has TB' are dependent, not independent.

Step by step solution

01

- Decode the problem

The problem gives us two probabilities - the proportion of all tested kindergarteners found to have TB (0.0006) and the proportion of recent immigrants found to have TB (0.0075). Let's denote with \(A\) the event 'selected student is a recent immigrant' and with \(B\) the event 'selected student has TB'.
02

- Determine independence

Events A and B are independent if the probability of event B happening given event A has occurred, i.e. \(P(B|A)\), equals the probability of event B, i.e. \(P(B)\). If this is not the case, then the events A and B are dependent.
03

- Apply the given information

The problem tells us that the probability of a kindergartner having TB is represented by \(P(B) = 0.0006\), and the probability of a recent immigrant kindergartner having TB is represented by \(P(B|A) = 0.0075\).
04

- Compare the probabilities

Now comparing \(P(B|A)\) and \(P(B)\), it can be seen that \(P(B|A) \neq P(B)\), i.e., the probability of a kindergartner having TB changes if we know that the student is a recent immigrant.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Independent Events
In probability theory, independent events are those events where the occurrence of one event does not influence or change the probability of the other event occurring. Put simply, two events are independent if knowing about the occurrence of one event does not provide any information regarding the occurrence of the other event. For example, when flipping two separate coins, the result of one coin flip does not affect the outcome of the other. This is a simple and classic illustration of independent events.If two events, say event A and event B, are independent, the probability that both events occur is the product of their individual probabilities. Mathematically, this is represented as:\[P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A) \times P(B)\]Independence forms a foundational concept in probability theory because it simplifies complex problems and calculations. It allows us to easily calculate the combined probabilities of events when we know they do not influence each other.
Dependent Events
Dependent events, unlike independent events, are influenced by the occurrence of one another. Here, knowing that one event has occurred changes the probability of the other event occurring. Dependent events require careful scrutiny because they are not as straightforward as independent events. For instance, consider the situation of drawing cards from a deck. Drawing a red card and then drawing a second card without replacing the first impacts the chance of the second card being red. If the first card drawn is red, then the event of drawing a red card the second time is influenced, making these events dependent.In probability terms, two events A and B are dependent if:\[P(B|A) eq P(B)\]Where \(P(B|A)\) represents the probability of event B occurring given that event A has already occurred. The original exercise about schoolchildren's TB screening falls into this category because the probability of having TB changes if we know the student fits into the high-risk group of recent immigrants.
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the analysis and interpretation of random events. It's about assessing uncertainty and making sense of outcomes that depend on chance. At its core, probability theory provides tools to understand how likely an event is to occur. It is governed by fundamental principles, among which the concept of probabilities ranging between 0 and 1 is key: - 0 indicates an event will not occur - 1 indicates certainty that an event will occur An important law in this theory is the Law of Total Probability, which helps to understand all possible outcomes and their probabilities. It provides a way to compute the probability of an event by considering all possible ways that event can happen. Probability theory becomes highly significant in fields like finance, science, engineering, and even decision-making processes. By understanding dependencies between events, it aids in managing risk, evaluating outcomes, and making predictions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Many cities regulate the number of taxi licenses, and there is a great deal of competition for both new and existing licenses. Suppose that a city has decided to sell 10 new licenses for \(\$ 25,000\) each. A lottery will be held to determine who gets the licenses, and no one may request more than three licenses. Twenty individuals and taxi companies have entered the lottery. Six of the 20 entries are requests for 3 licenses, nine are requests for 2 licenses, and the rest are requests for a single license. The city will select requests at random, filling as much of the request as possible. For example, the city might fill requests for \(2,3,1,\) and 3 licenses and then select a request for \(3 .\) Because there is only one license left, the last request selected would receive a license, but only one. a. An individual who wishes to be an independent driver has put in a request for a single license. Use simulation to approximate the probability that the request will be granted. Perform at least 20 simulated lotteries (more is better!). b. Do you think that this is a fair way of distributing licenses? Can you propose an alternative procedure for distribution?

USA Today (March 15,2001\()\) introduced a measure of racial and ethnic diversity called the Diversity Index. The Diversity Index is supposed to approximate the probability that two randomly selected individuals are racially or ethnically different. The equation used to compute the Diversity Index after the 1990 census was $$ \begin{aligned} 1-&\left[P(W)^{2}+P(B)^{2}+P(A I)^{2}+P(A P I)^{2}\right] \\ & \cdot\left[P(H)^{2}+P(\operatorname{not} H)^{2}\right] \end{aligned} $$ where \(W\) is the outcome that a randomly selected individual is white, \(B\) is the outcome that a randomly selected individual is black, \(A I\) is the outcome that a randomly selected individual is American Indian, \(A P I\) is the outcome that a randomly selected individual is Asian or Pacific Islander, and \(H\) is the outcome that a randomly sclected individual is Hispanic. The explanation of this index stared that 1\. \(\left[P(W)^{2}+P(B)^{2}+P(A I)^{2}+P(A P I)^{2}\right]\) is the probability that two randomly selected individuals are the same race 2\. \(\left[P(H)^{2}+P(\text { not } H)^{2}\right]\) is the probability that two randomly selected individuals are cither both Hispanic or both not Hispanic 3\. The calculation of the Diversity Index treats Hispanic ethnicity as if it were independent of race. a. What additional assumption about race must be made to justify use of the addition rule in the computarion of \(\left[P(W)^{2}+P(B)^{2}+P(A l)^{2}+P(A P I)^{2}\right]\) as the probability that two randomly selected individuals are of the same race? b. Three different probability rules are used in the calculation of the Diversity Index: the Complement Rule, the Addition Rule, and the Multiplication Rule. Describe the way in which each is used.

A Gallup survey of 2002 adults found that \(46 \%\) of women and \(37 \%\) of men experience pain daily (San Luis Obispo Tribune, April 6,2000 ). Suppose that this information is representative of U.S. adults. If a U.S. adult is selected at random, are the outcomes selected adult is male and selected adult experiences pain daily independent or dependent? Explain.

In a small city, approximately \(15 \%\) of those eligible are called for jury duty in any one calendar year. People are selected for jury duty at random from those eligible, and the same individual cannot be called more than once in the same year. What is the probability that an eligible person in this city is selected 2 years in a row? 3 years in a row?

Consider a system consisting of four components, as pictured in the following diagram: Components 1 and 2 form a series subsystem, as do Components 3 and 4\. The two subsystems are connected in parallel. Suppose that \(P(1\) works \()=.9\), \(P(2\) works \()=, 9, P(3\) works \()=.9,\) and \(P(4\) works \()=.9\) and that these four outcomes are independent (the four components work independently of one another). a. The \(1-2\) subsystem works only if both components work. What is the probability of this happening? b. What is the probability that the \(1-2\) subsystem doesn't work? that the \(3-4\) subsystem doesn't work? c. The system won't work if the \(1-2\) subsystem doesn't work and if the \(3-4\) subsystem also doesn't work. What is the probability that the system won't work? that it will work? d. How would the probability of the system working change if a \(5-6\) subsystem was added in parallel with the other two subsystems? e. How would the probability that the system works change if there were three components in series in each of the two subsystems?

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