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The paper "Crop Improvement for Tropical and Subtropical Australia: Designing Plants for Difficult Climates" (Field Crops Research [1991]: 113-139) gave the following data on \(x=\) crop duration (in days) for soybeans and \(y=\) crop yield (in tons per hectare): $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrr} x & 92 & 92 & 96 & 100 & 102 \\ y & 1.7 & 2.3 & 1.9 & 2.0 & 1.5 \\ x & 102 & 106 & 106 & 121 & 143 \\ y & 1.7 & 1.6 & 1.8 & 1.0 & 0.3 \end{array} $$ $$ \begin{gathered} \sum x=1060 \quad \sum y=15.8 \quad \sum x y=1601.1 \\ a=5.20683380 \quad b=-0.3421541 \end{gathered} $$ a. Construct a scatterplot of the data. Do you think the least-squares line will give accurate predictions? Explain. b. Delete the observation with the largest \(x\) value from the sample and recalculate the equation of the least-squares line. Does this observation greatly affect the equation of the line? c. What effect does the deletion in Part (b) have on the value of \(r^{2}\) ? Can you explain why this is so?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer will vary depending on the specific \(x\) and \(y\) values, but generally: \n\na. The scatterplot may show a generally linear trend, but with some dispersion. This may suggest the least-squares line may not provide highly accurate predictions. \nb. The equation of the line will change after deleting the largest \(x\) observation but it will not significantly affect the equation if the removed point was an outlier. \nc. The value of \(r^{2}\) may decrease because it is sensitive to outliers. Without the largest \(x\) observation, the predictability of \(y\) based on \(x\) will be less.

Step by step solution

01

Construct a Scatterplot

Input all the given \(x\) and \(y\) values into a graph. The \(x\) values represent crop durations, and the \(y\) values represent crop yields. Once all points have been plotted, observe their distribution.
02

Analyze the Scatterplot

Looking at the scatterplot, try to visualize the least-squares line (the best fitting straight line). Question whether the fit of the line will accurately predict new data.
03

Delete Largest \(x\) Observation

Remove the point with the largest \(x\) value (crop duration) from the data and the scatterplot.
04

Recalculate Least-squares Line

Apply the method of least squares to recalculate the equation of the line using the adjusted data, and compare to the original line. Specifically, compare 'a' and 'b', which represent the intercept and slope of the line, respectively.
05

Evaluate Effect of Deletion on \(r^{2}\)

Calculate the new \(r^{2}\) value (the coefficient of determination) with the adjusted data, and compare it with the original. Consider why the change occurred; since \(r^{2}\) measures the proportion of variation in \(y\) that is predictable from \(x\), removing a point may influence this.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Scatterplot
A scatterplot is a type of graph that represents individual data points on a two-dimensional plane, with one variable along the x-axis and another variable along the y-axis. In the context of agricultural studies, such as the one on soybeans' crop duration and yield, scatterplots play a crucial role in visualizing the relationship between two variables – in this case, 'crop duration' (x) and 'crop yield' (y).

Constructing a scatterplot involves plotting each pair of x and y coordinates as a point on the graph. This visual representation helps to identify patterns, trends, or possible correlations between the variables. For instance, one might look for a general upward or downward trend to indicate a positive or negative correlation. Such analysis is the foundation for further statistical methods, including the calculation of the least-squares line, which aims to best represent the data trend with a straight line.

By examining the scatterplot, we can initially assess whether the least-squares line might provide accurate predictions. If the points are closely clustered around an imaginary line or show a clear direction, this indicates a strong relationship and suggests that the least-squares line could be a good predictor. Conversely, if the points are widely scattered with no discernible pattern, predictions based on the least-squares line may be less reliable.
Crop Duration
Crop duration refers to the amount of time that a crop takes to grow from planting to harvest. It's an essential factor in agricultural planning and management as it affects the scheduling of planting and harvesting cycles. It also has critical implications for yield, with some crops performing better over shorter or longer growing periods under specific climate conditions.

In the context of the exercise, crop duration (x) is measured in days and serves as one of the two variables being examined for correlation with crop yield. When exploring the relationship between crop duration and yield using a scatterplot, one could determine, for example, if a longer crop duration correlates with a higher or lower yield. This insight is instrumental for predicting outcomes and making informed decisions on crop management strategies.

The durations represented in the data set range from relatively short to significantly longer periods, allowing us to investigate how yield might vary with growing time. This knowledge is beneficial for researchers and farmers, aiming to maximize output within the constraints of a growing season.
Crop Yield
Crop yield is measured as the amount of agricultural output, often given in terms of weight per unit area, such as tons per hectare, which a piece of land produces. It is a pivotal measure of agricultural productivity and an indicator of crop health and success. Factors influencing crop yield include soil quality, weather conditions, crop variety, and the growing practices used.

In the exercise, crop yield (y) is the dependent variable and is being studied in relation to crop duration (x). By analyzing the scatterplot of these two variables, we aim to understand if there is a consistent relationship between how long a crop grows and the amount of yield it produces.

Farmers and agricultural scientists use this information to predict the outcome of growing certain crops and to adjust their techniques and schedules. For instance, if a crop's yield tends to decrease as the duration increases beyond a certain point, it might indicate that shorter durations are preferable for maximizing yield under the given conditions.
Coefficient of Determination
The coefficient of determination, often represented as \( r^2 \), is a statistical measure that determines the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that is predictable from the independent variable. In simpler terms, it quantifies how well the regression line (such as the least-squares line) approximates the real data. An \( r^2 \) value of 1 indicates a perfect fit, meaning that the line explains all variability in the outcome. As the value decreases towards 0, the line's predictive power lessens.

In the exercise's context, recalculating the equation of the least-squares line after removing the observation with the largest x value may affect the \( r^2 \) value. This change reflects how sensitive the data model is to outliers or extreme values. Observations far from the general trend can significantly impact the equation of the regression line, which, in turn, affects the \( r^2 \) value and the line's overall predictive accuracy.

Understanding the coefficient of determination is crucial for interpreting the reliability of predictions based on the regression model. Farmers and researchers can use the \( r^2 \) value as a guideline for the confidence they might have in the predictions about crop yield based on duration or other variables in their agricultural studies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Both \(r^{2}\) and \(s_{e}\) are used to assess the fit of a line. a. Is it possible that both \(r^{2}\) and \(s_{e}\) could be large for a bivariate data set? Explain. (A picture might be helpful.) b. Is it possible that a bivariate data set could yield values of \(r^{2}\) and \(s_{e}\) that are both small? Explain. (Again, a picture might be helpful.) c. Explain why it is desirable to have \(r^{2}\) large and \(s_{e}\) small if the relationship between two variables \(x\) and \(y\) is to be described using a straight line.

The accompanying data were read from graphs that appeared in the article "Bush Timber Proposal Runs Counter to the Record" (San Luis Obispo Tribune, September 22,2002 ). The variables shown are the number of acres burned in forest fires in the western United States and timber sales. $$ \begin{array}{lrr} & \begin{array}{l} \text { Number of } \\ \text { Acres Burned } \\ \text { (thousands) } \end{array} & \begin{array}{l} \text { Timber Sales } \\ \text { (billions of } \\ \text { board feet) } \end{array} \\ \hline 1945 & 200 & 2.0 \\ 1950 & 250 & 3.7 \\ 1955 & 260 & 4.4 \\ 1960 & 380 & 6.8 \\ 1965 & 80 & 9.7 \\ 1970 & 450 & 11.0 \\ 1975 & 180 & 11.0 \\ 1980 & 240 & 10.2 \\ 1985 & 440 & 10.0 \\ 1990 & 400 & 11.0 \\ 1995 & 180 & 3.8 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Is there a correlation between timber sales and acres burned in forest fires? Compute and interpret the value of the correlation coefficient. b. The article concludes that "heavier logging led to large forest fires." Do you think this conclusion is justified based on the given data? Explain.

The accompanying data represent \(x=\) the amount of catalyst added to accelerate a chemical reaction and \(y=\) the resulting reaction time: $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrr} x & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 \\ y & 49 & 46 & 41 & 34 & 25 \end{array} $$ a. Calculate \(r\). Does the value of \(r\) suggest a strong linear relationship? b. Construct a scatterplot. From the plot, does the word linear really provide the most effective description of the relationship between \(x\) and \(y\) ? Explain.

Some straightforward but slightly tedious algebra shows that $$ \text { SSResid }=\left(1-r^{2}\right) \sum(y-\bar{y})^{2} $$ from which it follows that $$ s_{e}=\sqrt{\frac{n-1}{n-2}} \sqrt{1-r^{2}} s_{y} $$ Unless \(n\) is quite small, \((n-1) /(n-2) \approx 1\), so $$ s_{e} \approx \sqrt{1-r^{2}} s_{y} $$ a. For what value of \(r\) is \(s\), as large as \(s_{y} ?\) What is the least- squares line in this case? b. For what values of r will se be much smaller than \(s_{y} ?\) c. A study by the Berkeley Institute of Human Development (see the book Statistics by Freedman et al., listed in the back of the book) reported the following summary data for a sample of n 5 66 California boys: \(r \approx .80\) At age 6 , average height \(\approx 46\) in., standard deviation \(\approx\) \(1.7\) in. At age 18 , average height \(\approx 70\) in., standard deviation \(\approx\) \(2.5\) in. What would \(s_{e}\) be for the least-squares line used to predict 18-year-old height from 6-year-old height? d. Referring to Part (c), suppose that you wanted to predict the past value of 6 -year-old height from knowledge of 18 -year-old height. Find the equation for the appropriate least-squares line. What is the corresponding value of \(s_{e} ?\)

The article "Air Pollution and Medical Care Use by Older Americans" (Health Affairs [2002]: 207-214) gave data on a measure of pollution (in micrograms of particulate matter per cubic meter of air) and the cost of medical care per person over age 65 for six geographical regions of the United States: $$ \begin{array}{lcc} \text { Region } & \text { Pollution } & \text { Cost of Medical Care } \\ \hline \text { North } & 30.0 & 915 \\ \text { Upper South } & 31.8 & 891 \\ \text { Deep South } & 32.1 & 968 \\ \text { West South } & 26.8 & 972 \\ \text { Big Sky } & 30.4 & 952 \\ \text { West } & 40.0 & 899 \\ & & \\ \hline \end{array} $$ a. Construct a scatterplot of the data. Describe any interesting features of the scatterplot. b. Find the equation of the least-squares line describing the relationship between \(y=\) medical cost and \(x=\) pollution. c. Is the slope of the least-squares line positive or negative? Is this consistent with your description of the relationship in Part (a)? d. Do the scatterplot and the equation of the least-squares line support the researchers' conclusion that elderly people who live in more polluted areas have higher medical costs? Explain.

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