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Birth weights of elephants The birth weights (in kilograms) of five elephants, selected randomly, are 133,120 , 97,106,124 (Source: www.elephant.se). a. Using the web app, software or a calculator, verify that the \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean is (98.11,133.89) b. Name two things you could do to get a narrower interval than the one in part a. c. Construct a \(99 \%\) confidence interval. Why is it wider than the \(95 \%\) interval? d. On what assumptions is the interval in part a based? Explain how important each assumption is.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The 95% confidence interval is (98.11, 133.89). To narrow the interval, increase sample size or decrease confidence level. The 99% interval is wider due to higher confidence, requiring more certainty.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Sample Mean

First, calculate the sample mean by adding all birth weights and dividing by the number of elephants.\[\bar{x} = \frac{133 + 120 + 97 + 106 + 124}{5} = 116 \text{ kg} \]
02

Calculate the Sample Standard Deviation

Calculate the sample standard deviation using the formula for a sample of size \(n\):\[s = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (x_i - \bar{x})^2}{n-1}} \]Plugging in the values:\[s = \sqrt{\frac{(133 - 116)^2 + (120 - 116)^2 + (97 - 116)^2 + (106 - 116)^2 + (124 - 116)^2}{4}} \approx 15.59 \text{ kg} \]
03

Construct the 95% Confidence Interval

The formula for the confidence interval is:\[\bar{x} \pm Z* \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\]With a 95% confidence interval using a standard normal distribution, \(Z^* \approx 1.96\).\[116 \pm 1.96 \times \frac{15.59}{\sqrt{5}} = (98.11, 133.89) \]
04

Methods to Narrow the Interval

To narrow the confidence interval, you can: 1. Increase the sample size, which decreases the standard error. 2. Decrease the level of confidence, as a lower confidence level results in a smaller range.
05

Construct the 99% Confidence Interval

For a 99% confidence level, use \(Z^* \approx 2.576\):\[116 \pm 2.576 \times \frac{15.59}{\sqrt{5}} = (91.23, 140.77) \]This interval is wider due to the higher confidence level, indicating more certainty about capturing the true mean.
06

Assumptions Underlying Confidence Interval

The assumptions include: 1. The sample is randomly selected, which ensures unbiased estimates. 2. Birth weights are normally distributed or sample size is large enough to apply Central Limit Theorem. - Normality is important for accuracy of interval calculations, especially for small sample sizes. 3. Independence of observations (birth weights), critical for valid extrapolation of sample results to the population.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Mean
The sample mean, often denoted as \( \bar{x} \), is the average value of a set of observations and a basic measure of central tendency. Calculating it is straightforward: simply sum up all observations and divide by the number of observations. For the data given in the exercise, where elephant birth weights were 133, 120, 97, 106, and 124 kilograms, the sample mean is calculated as:
  • Add the weights: 133 + 120 + 97 + 106 + 124 = 580 kilograms
  • Divide by the number of elephants, which is 5: \( \bar{x} = \frac{580}{5} = 116 \) kilograms
The sample mean provides a center point of the data, allowing us to make inferences about the population from which the sample is drawn. It's essential for constructing the confidence interval, as it is the midpoint around which the interval is calculated.
Sample Standard Deviation
Sample standard deviation, denoted as \( s \), is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. Essentially, it indicates how much individual data points deviate from the sample mean.
To calculate the sample standard deviation for our elephant data, use the following steps:
  • Calculate the variance, which is the average squared deviation from the sample mean: \( s^2 = \frac{(133 - 116)^2 + (120 - 116)^2 + (97 - 116)^2 + (106 - 116)^2 + (124 - 116)^2}{4} \)
  • Compute each squared deviation: \[ (133 - 116)^2 = 289, (120 - 116)^2 = 16, (97 - 116)^2 = 361, (106 - 116)^2 = 100, (124 - 116)^2 = 64 \]
  • The sum of squared deviations: 289 + 16 + 361 + 100 + 64 = 830
  • The variance: \( \frac{830}{4} \approx 207.5 \)
  • The standard deviation is the square root of the variance: \( s = \sqrt{207.5} \approx 15.59 \) kilograms
This measure helps determine the reliability and precision of the sample mean, affecting the width of the confidence interval.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a fundamental concept in statistics, crucial when constructing confidence intervals. It states that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will tend to be normal or bell-shaped if the sample size is sufficiently large, about 30 or more, even if the population distribution is not normal.
In the context of the exercise, the relatively small sample size of 5 means we rely on the assumption that elephant birth weights are approximately normally distributed. If this assumption is true, the means of different samples would create a normal distribution, leading to more accurate predictions about the population mean.
  • For larger sample sizes, the shape of the collecting mean distribution would be approximately normal, irrespective of the population distribution.
  • The CLT allows researchers to make conclusive statements using probabilities and statistics, even with non-normal data, as long as the sample size is sufficiently large or the population is normal.
  • In small samples like our case, the CLT's reliance on normality is crucial for the validity of the confidence interval.
Understanding the CLT helps reinforce why certain statistical methods work, especially when estimating measures about the population with limited data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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