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Effect of \(n\) Example 11 analyzed political conservatism and liberalism in the United States. Suppose that the sample mean of 4.11 and sample standard deviation of 1.43 were from a sample size of only 25 , rather than 1933 . a. Find the test statistic. b. Find the P-value for testing \(\mathrm{H}_{0}: \mu=4.0\) against \(\mathrm{H}_{a}: \mu \neq 4.0 .\) Interpret. c. Show that a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) is (3.5,4.7) . d. Together with the results of Example \(11,\) explain what this illustrates about the effect of sample size on (i) the size of the P-value (for a given mean and standard deviation) and (ii) the width of the confidence interval.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The test statistic is approximately 0.385, with a P-value over 0.7. The 95% CI is (3.5, 4.7). Larger sample sizes result in smaller P-values and narrower confidence intervals.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Test Statistic

To find the test statistic, we use the formula for the t-statistic: \( t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s / \sqrt{n}} \), where \( \bar{x} = 4.11 \) is the sample mean, \( \mu_0 = 4.0 \) is the population mean under the null hypothesis, \( s = 1.43 \) is the sample standard deviation, and \( n = 25 \) is the sample size. Substitute the values: \[ t = \frac{4.11 - 4.0}{1.43 / \sqrt{25}} = \frac{0.11}{0.286} \approx 0.385 \]
02

Find the P-Value

To find the P-value, we need to consider the degrees of freedom (df), which is \( n - 1 = 24 \). Using a t-distribution table or statistical software, we look up the P-value for \( t \approx 0.385 \) and \( df = 24 \). For a two-tailed test, the P-value can be found by doubling the area in one tail for \( t = 0.385 \). Assuming standard software or table, this P-value is greater than 0.7, indicating weak evidence against the null hypothesis. (Note: A more precise tool or table might give exact values.)
03

Calculate the 95% Confidence Interval (CI)

The formula for a confidence interval is \( \bar{x} \pm t^* \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( t^* \) is the critical value for 95% confidence and \( df = 24 \). Using a t-distribution table, we find \( t^* \approx 2.064 \). Then, calculate the margin of error: \[ ME = 2.064 \times \frac{1.43}{\sqrt{25}} \approx 0.591 \]The confidence interval is then: \[ (4.11 - 0.591, 4.11 + 0.591) = (3.519, 4.701) \]Rounded to one decimal place, this is approximately (3.5, 4.7).
04

Compare with Larger Sample Size (Effect of Sample Size)

Example 11 refers to a much larger sample size (1933). (i) **P-value Size**: With a larger sample size, the variability is smaller, often resulting in a smaller P-value for the same mean and standard deviation, thereby providing stronger evidence against the null if the sample mean differs from the hypothesized mean. (ii) **Confidence Interval Width**: The width of the confidence interval becomes narrower with a larger sample size, making the estimate of \( \mu \) more precise.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

T-statistic
The t-statistic is a fundamental concept in statistics that helps us compare the sample mean to the population mean. It's calculated using the formula: \[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s / \sqrt{n}} \] Here:
  • \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, which in this case is 4.11.
  • \( \mu_0 \) is the hypothesized population mean, which is 4.0.
  • \( s \) represents the sample standard deviation of 1.43.
  • \( n \) is the sample size, which was 25 in this instance.
By plugging these values into the formula, we get: \[ t = \frac{4.11 - 4.0}{1.43 / \sqrt{25}} = \frac{0.11}{0.286} \approx 0.385 \] This t-value, approximately 0.385, tells us how many standard deviations our sample mean is from the hypothesized population mean. If the value of the t-statistic is large, it suggests a more significant difference between the sample and population mean.
P-value
The P-value helps us determine the significance of our test result. It tells us the probability of obtaining a sample mean as extreme as the observed one, if the null hypothesis is true.To find the P-value, you first need to calculate the degrees of freedom, which is one less than the sample size: \( df = n - 1 = 24 \).Using statistical software or a t-distribution table, we can determine the P-value associated with our calculated t-statistic of 0.385 and 24 degrees of freedom. Given it is a two-tailed test, we find the probability of a value as extreme as our test statistic, in both tails of the distribution.In our example, you would find the P-value to be greater than 0.7, indicating weak evidence against the null hypothesis. A large P-value implies that there is a high probability of observing our sample mean if the null hypothesis is true, suggesting no strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval gives us a range of values within which the true population mean is likely to lie. For a 95% confidence interval, we express the range with a confidence level that suggests we are 95% confident the true mean falls within these bounds.The formula to calculate this interval is: \[ \bar{x} \pm t^* \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]Where \( t^* \) is the critical value for a t-distribution at the desired confidence level and appropriate degrees of freedom. For our example, \( t^* \approx 2.064 \) when \( df = 24 \).Calculate the margin of error:\[ ME = 2.064 \times \frac{1.43}{\sqrt{25}} \approx 0.591 \] Thus, the confidence interval for the sample mean of 4.11 is:\[ (4.11 - 0.591, 4.11 + 0.591) = (3.519, 4.701) \] Rounding to one decimal place gives us (3.5, 4.7), which shows a range where the true population mean is likely to exist.
Sample Size Effect
Sample size significantly impacts statistical measures such as the P-value and the confidence interval.
  • **Effect on P-value:** A larger sample size typically suggests a smaller variability in results. This reduction in variability can result in a smaller P-value if the sample mean differs from the hypothesized mean, thus providing stronger evidence against the null hypothesis.
  • **Effect on Confidence Interval:** With a larger sample size, the confidence interval becomes narrower. This indicates a more precise estimate of the population mean. A narrower interval means we can be more certain about the range in which the population mean lies.
In this example, compare the 25-sample size results with those from the larger sample of 1933. The larger sample size results in a smaller P-value and narrower confidence interval, demonstrating greater statistical power and precision.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Error probability A significance test about a proportion is conducted using a significance level of \(0.05 .\) The test statistic equals \(2.58 .\) The P-value is 0.01 a. If \(\mathrm{H}_{0}\) were true, for what probability of a Type I error was the test designed? b. If this test resulted in a decision error, what type of error was it?

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