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Alternative therapies The Department of Public Health at the University of Western Australia conducted a survey in which they randomly sampled general practitioners in Australia. \(^{10}\) One question asked whether the GP had ever studied alternative therapy, such as acupuncture, hypnosis, homeopathy, and yoga. Of 282 respondents, 132 said yes. Is the interpretation, "We are \(95 \%\) confident that the percentage of all GPs in Australia who have ever studied alternative therapy equals \(46.8 \%^{n}\) correct or incorrect? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Incorrect; 95% confidence implies a range (41.0%-52.6%), not a single percentage (46.8%).

Step by step solution

01

Understand Confidence Intervals

The statement claims a specific percentage (46.8%) as the exact percentage of GPs who have studied alternative therapy, with 95% confidence. However, confidence intervals are meant to provide a range of values within which we expect the true parameter to lie, not an exact value.
02

Identify the Sample Proportion

We need to calculate the sample proportion to eventually find the confidence interval. The number of GPs who said yes is 132 out of 282 sampled respondents. Let \( p \) be the sample proportion, then \( p = \frac{132}{282} \approx 0.4681 \) or 46.81%.
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) is a measure of how much the sample proportion is expected to vary. It is calculated using the formula \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \), where \( n = 282 \). Substitute \( p = 0.4681 \) into the formula to get the SE: \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.4681(1-0.4681)}{282}} \approx 0.0296 \).
04

Determine the 95% Confidence Interval

For a 95% confidence interval, we use the Z-score of 1.96, since it's typical for 95% confidence. The confidence interval is then given by \( \text{CI} = (p - Z \cdot SE, p + Z \cdot SE) = (0.4681 - 1.96 \times 0.0296, 0.4681 + 1.96 \times 0.0296) \). Calculate this to obtain the interval: \( CI \approx (0.410, 0.526) \) or (41.0%, 52.6%).
05

Conclusion About the Original Statement

The original statement is incorrect because it suggests a single percentage value (46.8%) as the percentage for the entire GP population. The correct interpretation is that we are 95% confident that the true percentage lies within the interval (41.0%, 52.6%).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
In the context of surveys and statistics, the term 'sample proportion' refers to the ratio of a certain outcome in a sample. It's a way to understand the likelihood of this outcome appearing in a given context. For example, if we're interested in how many general practitioners (GPs) have studied alternative therapies, we calculate the sample proportion by dividing the number of 'yes' responses by the total number of respondents.

In the exercise, the sample proportion can be calculated as follows:
  • Total GPs surveyed = 282
  • GPs who studied alternative therapy = 132
Thus, the sample proportion \( p \) is calculated as:\[ p = \frac{132}{282} \approx 0.4681 \] This result means that about 46.81% of the surveyed GPs have studied alternative therapy. The sample proportion is key as it serves as the best estimate for the population proportion, around which confidence intervals are built.
Standard Error
Understanding the concept of **Standard Error** (SE) is crucial when working with sample data. SE measures how much the sample proportion would fluctuate if you were to draw multiple samples from the same population. It helps quantify the precision of the sample proportion as an estimate of the population proportion.

The formula to calculate the standard error for a sample proportion is:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \] Where:
  • \( p \) is the sample proportion (calculated as 0.4681 in our example)
  • \( n \) is the sample size (282 in this case)
Plug these values into the formula:\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.4681 \times (1 - 0.4681)}{282}} \approx 0.0296 \] This calculation tells us that if we were to repeatedly sample 282 GPs, the sample proportion would typically vary by about 0.0296 or 2.96% from the true population proportion. The smaller the standard error, the more accurate the sample proportion is likely to be.
95% Confidence Interval
When interpreting survey data, especially in statistics, the concept of a **95% Confidence Interval** becomes essential. A confidence interval provides a range of values that is likely to contain the population proportion with a certain level of confidence, which in most cases is set at 95%.

To calculate the 95% confidence interval, you'll typically use a Z-score of 1.96, as it’s standard for a 95% confidence level. With the sample proportion \( p \) and standard error \( SE \) calculated earlier, the confidence interval is computed as follows:\[ \text{CI} = (p - Z \cdot SE, p + Z \cdot SE) \] Insert the values:
  • \( Z = 1.96 \)
  • \( p = 0.4681 \)
  • \( SE = 0.0296 \)
\[ \text{CI} = (0.4681 - 1.96 \times 0.0296, 0.4681 + 1.96 \times 0.0296) \approx (0.410, 0.526) \] This result indicates that we are 95% confident that the true percentage of all Australian GPs who have studied alternative therapy lies between 41.0% and 52.6%. It's important to note that confidence intervals provide a range, not an exact value, thus making the original statement claiming a single percentage incorrect.

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