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Nutrient effect on growth rate Researchers are interested in the effect of a certain nutrient on the growth rate of plant seedlings. Using a hydroponics grow procedure that utilized water containing the nutrient, they planted six tomato plants and recorded the heights of each plant 14 days after germination. Those heights, measured in millimeters, were as follows: \(55.5,60.3,60.6,62.1,65.5,69.2 .\) a. Find a point estimate of the population mean height of this variety of seedling 14 days after germination. b. A method that we'll study in Section 8.3 provides a margin of error of \(4.9 \mathrm{~mm}\) for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean height. Construct that interval. c. Use this example to explain why a point estimate alone is usually insufficient for statistical inference.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Point estimate: 62.2 mm b. Confidence interval: (57.3 mm, 67.1 mm) c. A point estimate lacks variability information, unlike a confidence interval.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Mean

To find the point estimate of the population mean height, calculate the average height of the six tomato plants. Add all the heights and divide by the number of plants: \[\bar{x} = \frac{55.5 + 60.3 + 60.6 + 62.1 + 65.5 + 69.2}{6}.\]
02

Simplify the Expression for the Mean

Compute the sum of the heights: \[ 55.5 + 60.3 + 60.6 + 62.1 + 65.5 + 69.2 = 373.2. \] Now, divide by 6 to find the mean: \[\bar{x} = \frac{373.2}{6} = 62.2 \text{ mm}.\] Hence, the point estimate for the population mean height is 62.2 mm.
03

Construct the Confidence Interval

Use the provided margin of error to construct the 95% confidence interval. The formula is given by \[(\bar{x} - \, ext{margin of error}, \, \bar{x} + \, ext{margin of error}).\] Substituting the values: \(\bar{x} = 62.2\) and margin of error = 4.9, the confidence interval becomes: \[ (62.2 - 4.9, \, 62.2 + 4.9) \] which simplifies to \[ (57.3, \, 67.1).\]
04

Interpret the Point Estimate and Confidence Interval

A point estimate (mean of 62.2 mm) provides an estimate of the average height but does not describe the reliability of this estimate. The confidence interval \([57.3, 67.1]\) gives a range where the true population mean is likely to lie, providing both a central estimate and an assessment of variability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
When trying to understand the characteristics of a population, one of the primary goals is to make an educated guess or "estimate" of a certain value. In statistics, this is known as a point estimate. Essentially, a point estimate provides us with a single value that acts as a best guess for a parameter of the population. In the case of plant heights above, the point estimate is the average height of the six sampled tomato plants.

To calculate this point estimate, we simply sum up all the observed values and then divide by the total number of observations. This helps in giving us a sense of where the center of the data lies. For example, for the tomato plants, adding the heights (55.5, 60.3, 60.6, 62.1, 65.5, 69.2) together results in 373.2. Dividing this by the 6 plants gives a mean height (point estimate) of 62.2 mm.

This point estimate is vital because it distills all the gathered data into a singular, simple figure that can be easily communicated and interpreted. Yet, while it's useful, it only gives part of the picture, since it doesn't indicate how much variance there might be in the data.
Confidence Interval
While a point estimate gives us a single-number summary of the data, it doesn't tell us how much trust to place in that number. A confidence interval steps in to solve this by providing a range of values which is likely to contain the true population parameter.

A confidence interval gives us a range that we believe encompasses the true population mean, which is especially important when making decisions based on statistical data. This range is determined based on the point estimate we calculated and a margin of error, providing boundaries within which the true mean likely falls.

In practice, when we calculated a point estimate of 62.2 mm for the plant height, it only gives us a snapshot in isolation. The confidence interval, however, tells us that we are 95% confident that the true average height of all plants, not just our sample, will fall between 57.3 mm and 67.1 mm. This range shows an interval within which the true population mean may lie, considering variation and sample size.
Population Mean Height
In the context of plant studies or any study focusing on a population, understanding the true population mean is very important. In simple words, a population mean height would be the average height that all individual plants would have if we could measure every single one.

Obtaining the true population mean directly is often impractical or impossible, especially when dealing with large populations, so we rely on samples. By using samples and calculating point estimates and confidence intervals, we get incredibly close to identifying the population mean without needing to measure each one of the plants specifically.

For researchers, this theoretical population mean provides an overarching goal. It's a target they are aiming to estimate accurately to make inferences or necessary agricultural decisions. By using the sample mean (like our calculated 62.2 mm), we have a solid estimation of where this true mean might sit, despite only having measured a few members of the population.
Margin of Error
The margin of error is a crucial statistical concept when estimating the reliability of a point estimate. It indicates how precise our estimate is likely to be and gives us a measure of uncertainty.

The margin of error quantifies how much the true population parameter can be expected to differ from the sample estimate. In the context of our tomato plant study, a margin of error of 4.9 mm for the 95% confidence interval tells us that the true mean plant height could be as much as 4.9 mm higher or lower than our calculated point estimate of 62.2 mm.

By combining the point estimate with the margin of error, we can create a band around the point estimate (shown in the confidence interval) which conveys a more comprehensive picture than the point estimate alone. This added precision enhances the utility of the point estimate by providing a range that reflects where the true mean likely lies, thus allowing researchers to understand the variability and reliability of their data conclusion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Why called "degrees of freedom"? You know the sample mean \(\bar{x}\) of \(n\) observations. Once you know \((n-1)\) of the observations, show that you can find the remaining one. In other words, for a given value of \(\bar{x},\) the values of \((n-1)\) observations determine the remaining one. In summarizing scores on a quantitative variable, having \((n-1)\) degrees of freedom means that only that many observations are independent. (If you have trouble with this, try to show it for \(n=2,\) for instance showing that if you know that \(\bar{x}=80\) and you know that one observation is \(90,\) then you can figure out the other observation. The \(d f\) value also refers to the divisor in \(\left.s^{2}=\Sigma(x-\bar{x})^{2} /(n-1) .\right)\)

Multiple choice: CI property 2 Other things being equal, increasing \(n\) causes the margin of error of a confidence interval to (a) increase, (b) decrease, (c) stay the same.

Width of a confidence interval Why are confidence intervals wider when we use larger confidence levels but narrower when we use larger sample sizes, other things being equal?

South Africa study The researcher planning the study in South Africa also will estimate the population proportion having at least a high school education. No information is available about its value. How large a sample size is needed to estimate it to within 0.07 with \(95 \%\) confidence?

Effect of \(n\) Find the margin of error for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for estimating the population mean when the sample standard deviation equals 100 , with a sample size of (i) 400 and (ii) 1600 . What is the effect of the sample size?

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