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Political views The General Social Survey asks respondents to rate their political views on a seven-point scale, where \(1=\) extremely liberal, \(4=\) moderate, and \(7=\) extremely conservative. A researcher analyzing data from the 2008 GSS obtains MINITAB output: a. Show how to construct the confidence interval from the other information provided. b. Can you conclude that the population mean is higher than the moderate score of \(4.0 ?\) Explain. c. Would the confidence interval be wider, or narrower, (i) if you constructed a \(99 \%\) confidence interval and (ii) if \(n=500\) instead of \(1933 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Calculate the CI from the sample mean and standard deviation in MINITAB. If the CI is entirely above 4.0, the mean is greater than 4.0. A 99% CI is wider; a larger sample size makes the CI narrower.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Confidence Interval

A confidence interval is used to estimate the range in which the true population mean will fall. It is calculated using the sample mean, the standard deviation, and the number of observations. We need these statistics from the MINITAB output to construct the interval.
02

Calculating the Confidence Interval

The formula for a confidence interval is \[ \text{CI} = \bar{x} \pm z \left( \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \right) \]where \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, \( z \) is the z-score corresponding to the confidence level, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, and \( n \) is the sample size. Extract these values from the MINITAB output to calculate the interval.
03

Determining If Mean Is Greater Than 4.0

To check if the population mean is higher than 4.0, look at the entire confidence interval. If the lower bound of the interval is greater than 4.0, we conclude the mean is higher than 4.0. If 4.0 is included or higher than the upper bound, it is not conclusively higher.
04

Effect of Confidence Level on Interval Width

(i) A higher confidence level (e.g., 99%) increases the z-score, making the confidence interval wider. This reflects more uncertainty, covering more potential population means.
05

Effect of Sample Size on Interval Width

(ii) A larger sample size (e.g., \( n = 500 \)) decreases the standard error \(( \sigma/\sqrt{n} )\), resulting in a narrower confidence interval since it reduces the uncertainty in estimating the population mean.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Mean
The population mean is a key concept in statistics, representing the average of all values in a population. In the context of political views, it's the average response from all individuals surveyed.
To make inferences about this mean, we often collect a sample and calculate the sample mean. The sample mean is an estimate of the population mean. However, it is important to remember that the sample mean is just that—an estimate. It is subject to variability depending on the randomness of the sample and other factors.
To assess how reliable this estimate is, we construct confidence intervals. These provide a range within which we can be fairly certain the true population mean lies.
Z-score
The z-score plays a vital role when constructing confidence intervals. It represents the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. In the context of a confidence interval, the z-score helps us determine the area under the standard normal curve that captures our desired confidence level.
For example, for a 95% confidence interval, the z-score is usually 1.96. This means the interval extends 1.96 standard deviations on either side of the sample mean.
The choice of z-score affects the width of the confidence interval. Larger z-scores (associated with higher confidence levels) result in wider intervals, encompassing more potential values of the population mean.
Sample Size
Sample size, denoted by \( n \), refers to the number of observations or data points in a sample. It is a fundamental component in statistical analyses, including the construction of confidence intervals.
A larger sample size provides a more accurate estimation of the population mean. This occurs because larger samples tend to better represent the underlying population, reducing random sampling error.
In the formula for a confidence interval, the sample size affects the standard error \( ( \sigma/\sqrt{n} ) \). As the sample size increases, the standard error decreases, leading to a narrower confidence interval. This implies that we can be more certain about where the true population mean lies.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation, denoted by \( \sigma \), measures the amount of variation or dispersion in a data set. It tells us how much individual data points differ from the mean on average.
In the context of confidence intervals, the standard deviation is essential for calculating the standard error. A larger standard deviation indicates more variability in the data, resulting in a wider confidence interval, as there is more uncertainty about the sample estimate of the population mean.
Conversely, a smaller standard deviation suggests that the data points are closer to the mean, which leads to a narrower confidence interval and increased certainty in estimating the population mean. This is why understanding and calculating the standard deviation is crucial in the accurate construction of confidence intervals.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Divorce and age of marriage A U.S. Census Bureau report \({ }^{9}\) in 2009 estimated that for men between 20 and \(24,86.2 \%\) were never married. For women between 20 and \(24,\) the corresponding value is \(74.6 \%\). a. Are these point estimates or interval estimates? b. Is the information given here sufficient to allow you to construct confidence intervals? Why or why not?

General electric stock volume Example 7 analyzed the trading volume of shares of General Electric stock between February and April 2011. Summary statistics of the data were calculated using MINITAB and are shown below: The \(95 \%\) confidence intervals for the means are \((40.2685 .\) 63.3679 ) for Monday's volume and (42.7963,57.2037) for Friday's. Interpret each of these intervals, and explain what you learn by comparing them.

True or false The confidence interval for a mean with a random sample of size \(n=2000\) is invalid if the population distribution is bimodal.

t-scores a. Show how the \(t\) -score for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval changes as the sample size increases from 10 to 20 to 30 to infinity. b. What does the answer in part a suggest about how the \(t\) distribution compares to the standard normal distribution?

How long lived in town? The General Social Survey has asked subjects, "How long have you lived in the city, town, or community where you live now?" The responses of 1415 subjects in one survey had a mode of less than 1 year, a median of 16 years, a mean of 20.3 and a standard deviation of \(18.2 .\) a. Do you think that the population distribution is normal? Why or why not? b. Based on your answer in part a, can you construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean? If not, explain why not. If \(\mathrm{so},\) do so and interpret.

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