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How long lived in town? The General Social Survey has asked subjects, "How long have you lived in the city, town, or community where you live now?" The responses of 1415 subjects in one survey had a mode of less than 1 year, a median of 16 years, a mean of 20.3 and a standard deviation of \(18.2 .\) a. Do you think that the population distribution is normal? Why or why not? b. Based on your answer in part a, can you construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean? If not, explain why not. If \(\mathrm{so},\) do so and interpret.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The data is skewed, not normal, but a 95% CI (19.36, 21.24) can still be constructed due to large sample size.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Normal Distribution

A normal distribution is symmetric around the mean. In a perfectly normal distribution, mode, median, and mean are equal. Here, the mode is less than one year, the median is 16 years, and the mean is 20.3 years, which suggests the data is skewed. Thus, the population distribution is likely not normal.
02

Evaluating Assumptions for Confidence Interval

A 95% confidence interval for the mean can be constructed if either the population is normally distributed or the sample size is large (Central Limit Theorem). Our sample size is 1415, which is large enough to apply the Central Limit Theorem despite skewness.
03

Calculating the Standard Error

Calculate the standard error (SE) for the mean using the formula: \( SE = \frac{\text{standard deviation}}{\sqrt{n}} \). Here \( n = 1415 \) and the standard deviation is 18.2: \[ SE = \frac{18.2}{\sqrt{1415}} \approx 0.48 \].
04

Constructing the 95% Confidence Interval

Use the mean and standard error to calculate the 95% confidence interval. For a normal distribution, the z-score for 95% confidence is 1.96. The confidence interval is given by: \[ 20.3 \pm 1.96 \times 0.48 \]. This results in \[ 20.3 \pm 0.94 \], or the interval (19.36, 21.24).
05

Interpreting the Confidence Interval

We are 95% confident that the true mean number of years respondents have lived in their community falls between 19.36 and 21.24 years.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics. It describes how data points are spread around the mean in many natural phenomena. Imagine a bell-shaped curve that is perfectly symmetrical. This is what a normal distribution looks like.
In a perfectly normal distribution, the mean, median, and mode are all the same.
  • The **mean** represents the average of the data.
  • The **median** is the middle value when all the data is lined up in order.
  • The **mode** is the most frequently occurring value.
In your exercise, you see that these three measures are not the same: the mode is less than 1 year, the median is 16 years, and the mean is 20.3 years. This indicates skewness. Skewness suggests that the distribution of how long people have lived in their city is not perfectly balanced like the normal bell curve. This helps us identify that the population distribution might not be normal.
Central Limit Theorem
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) is a crucial concept in statistics. It tells us that, given a large enough sample size, the distribution of the sample mean will be approximately normal regardless of the population's original distribution.
This is incredibly useful because it allows us to make inferences about a population's mean using sample data, even when the population distribution isn't normal.
  • For example, in your exercise, though the population distribution isn't normal, the large sample size of 1415 allows us to use the CLT.
  • The CLT assures us that the sample mean's distribution is approximately normal even if the original data is skewed.
  • This makes it possible to construct confidence intervals for the population mean.
Understanding the CLT allows statisticians to work with data more flexibly and confidently, as seen in your problem, where it permits constructing a confidence interval despite non-normal data.
Standard Error
Standard Error (SE) measures how much the sample mean is expected to fluctuate from the actual population mean. It's calculated using the formula: \( SE = \frac{\text{standard deviation}}{\sqrt{n}} \). This formula shows how SE decreases as the sample size increases, leading to more reliable estimates of the population mean.
For the exercise:
  • Given: Sample size \( n = 1415 \) and standard deviation = 18.2.
  • Calculate SE: \( SE = \frac{18.2}{\sqrt{1415}} \approx 0.48 \).
The small SE indicates that the sample mean is likely close to the actual population mean. This knowledge is essential in determining how precise your estimates are.
Population Mean
The population mean is the average of all possible data points in a population.
In practical terms, it's not always feasible to calculate this directly, especially with large populations. Instead, statisticians often estimate the population mean using sample data.
  • Your exercise involved calculating a 95% confidence interval for the population mean. This interval is a range where the true mean is likely to lie.
  • Given a sample mean of 20.3 and using the calculated SE, the exercise estimated the interval to be \((19.36, 21.24)\).
This means we can be 95% confident that the average number of years people have lived in the city falls within this range. The population mean provides a central tendency measure, helping us understand the data's overall behavior.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Population data You would like to find the proportion of bills passed by Congress that were vetoed by the president in the last congressional session. After checking congressional records, you see that for the population of all 40 bills passed, 15 were vetoed. Does it make sense to construct a confidence interval using these data? Explain. (Hint: Identify the sample and population.)

Fear of breast cancer A recent survey of 1000 American women between the ages of 45 and 64 asked them what medical condition they most feared. Of those sampled, \(61 \%\) said breast cancer, \(8 \%\) said heart disease, and the rest picked other conditions. By contrast, currently about \(3 \%\) of female deaths are due to breast cancer, whereas \(32 \%\) are due to heart disease. \(^{5}\) a. Construct a \(90 \%\) confidence interval for the population proportion of women who most feared breast cancer. Interpret. b. Indicate the assumptions you must make for the inference in part a to be valid.

t-scores a. Show how the \(t\) -score for a \(95 \%\) confidence interval changes as the sample size increases from 10 to 20 to 30 to infinity. b. What does the answer in part a suggest about how the \(t\) distribution compares to the standard normal distribution?

True or false If you have a volunteer sample instead of a random sample, then a confidence interval for a parameter is still completely reliable as long as the sample size is larger than about 30 .

A Gallup poll taken during June 2011 estimated that \(8.8 \%\) of U.S. adults were unemployed. The poll was based on the responses of 30,000 U.S. adults in the workforce. Gallup reported that the margin of error associated with the poll is ±0.3 percentage points. Explain how they got this result. (Source: www.gallup.com/poll/125639/Gallup-Daily-Workforce aspx.)

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