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In the 2008 General Social Survey, respondents were asked if they favored or opposed the death penalty for people convicted of murder. Software shows results Sample X N Sample P \(95 \& \mathrm{CI}\) \(\begin{array}{lll}1 & 1263 & 1902 & 0.664038\end{array}\) (0.642811,0.685265) Here, \(X\) refers to the number of the respondents who were in favor. a. Show how to obtain the value reported under"Sample p." b. Interpret the confidence interval reported, in context. c. Explain what the "95\% confidence" refers to, by describing the long-run interpretation. d. Can you conclude that more than half of all American adults were in favor? Why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
More than half of respondents favor the death penalty, with 95% confidence. The sample proportion is approximately 0.664.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Sample Proportion

To find the sample proportion reported under "Sample P," divide the number of respondents who favored the death penalty, \(X = 1263\), by the total number of respondents, \(N = 1902\). The calculation is as follows: \[\text{Sample Proportion} (p) = \frac{X}{N} = \frac{1263}{1902} \approx 0.664038\] Thus, the value reported under "Sample P" is approximated to 0.664038.
02

Interpret the Confidence Interval

The confidence interval given is (0.642811, 0.685265). This means that we are 95% confident that the true proportion of all American adults who favor the death penalty for people convicted of murder is between 64.28% and 68.53%.
03

Explain 95% Confidence

The "95% confidence" refers to the idea that if we were to take many samples and compute a confidence interval from each sample, approximately 95% of those intervals would contain the true proportion of the population.
04

Conclusion About Majority

Since the entire confidence interval (0.642811, 0.685265) lies above 0.5, we can conclude that more than half of all American adults were in favor of the death penalty for people convicted of murder, with 95% confidence.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
A sample proportion is a simple yet powerful statistical concept. It provides insight into what fraction or percentage of a sample has a particular attribute or characteristic. In the given survey about the death penalty, the sample proportion represents the part of the total respondents who favor it. It's calculated using the formula \( \text{Sample Proportion} (p) = \frac{X}{N} \) where \( X \) is the number of respondents in favor and \( N \) is the total number of respondents. For the survey, \( X = 1263 \) and \( N = 1902 \), leading to a sample proportion of approximately 0.664 or 66.4%. This means that about 66.4% of the surveyed individuals are in favor of the death penalty.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval helps us understand the precision of an estimate and reflects the range in which we expect the true population parameter to lie. In this survey, the confidence interval is given as (0.642811, 0.685265). This means that we estimate, with 95% confidence, that between 64.28% and 68.53% of all American adults support the death penalty. This range provides a margin around the sample proportion (66.4%) and illustrates the potential variability if we were to sample repeatedly. The wider the interval, the more variability exists around the estimate. Understanding this range can help in decision-making and evaluating the reliability of the sample estimate.
Statistical Interpretation
Statistical interpretation involves making sense of data through probability and inferencing. The term "95% confidence" is crucial here. It indicates that if we were to repeatedly conduct the survey and calculate confidence intervals each time, about 95% of those intervals would contain the true proportion of the population in favor of the death penalty. This does not mean that there is a 95% probability that the interval they found contains the true proportion; rather, it's about the process reliability over repeated samples. Such interpretation helps us in understanding not just what is observed in the sample but also in estimating how it reflects on the broader population.
Survey Analysis
Survey analysis is the process of examining survey data to make informed decisions or conclusions. In this specific survey about the death penalty, each step, from computing the sample proportion to interpreting the confidence interval, plays a crucial role. Proper survey analysis involves:
  • Identifying the sample and understanding if it's representative of the entire population.
  • Calculating key statistics such as the sample proportion to summarize the data efficiently.
  • Utilizing confidence intervals to understand and communicate the precision and reliability of these estimates.
  • Drawing conclusions that are statistically significant, such as the finding that more than half of American adults favor the death penalty, which rests on the entire confidence interval being above the halfway mark (0.5).
Through survey analysis, one can derive insights that inform social, political, or economic decisions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

\(99.9999 \%\) confidence Explain why confidence levels are usually large, such as 0.95 or \(0.99,\) but not extremely large, such as \(0.999999 .\) (Hint: What impact does the extremely high confidence level have on the margin of error?)

The instructor will assign the class a theme to study. Download recent results for variables relating to that theme from sda.berkeley.edu/GSS. Find and interpret confidence intervals for relevant parameters. Prepare a two-page report summarizing results.

What affects n? Using the sample size formula \(n=\left[\hat{p}(1-\hat{p}) z^{2}\right] / m^{2}\) for a proportion, explain the effect on \(n\) of (a) increasing the confidence level and (b) decreasing the margin of error.

Working mother In response to the statement on a recent General Social Survey, "A preschool child is likely to suffer if his or her mother works," suppose the response categories (strongly agree, agree, disagree, strongly disagree) had counts \((104,370,665,169) .\) Scores (2,1,-1,-2) were assigned to the four categories, to treat the variable as quantitative. Software reported a. Explain what this choice of scoring assumes about relative distances between categories of the scale. b. Based on this scoring, how would you interpret the sample mean of \(-0.1261 ?\) c. Explain how you could also make an inference about proportions for these data.

Driving after drinking In December \(2004,\) a report based on the National Survey on Drug Use and Health estimated that \(20 \%\) of all Americans of ages 16 to 20 drove under the influence of drugs or alcohol in the previous year (AP, December 30,2004 ). A public health unit in Wellington, New Zealand, plans a similar survey for young people of that age in New Zealand. They want a \(95 \%\) confidence interval to have a margin of error of 0.04 . a. Find the necessary sample size if they expect results similar to those in the United States. b. Suppose that in determining the sample size, they use the safe approach that sets \(\hat{p}=0.50\) in the formula for \(n\). Then, how many records need to be sampled? Compare this to the answer in part a. Explain why it is better to make an educated guess about what to expect for \(\hat{p},\) when possible.

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