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San Francisco Giants hitting The table shows the probability distribution of the number of bases for a randomly selected time at bat for a San Francisco Giants player in 2010 (excluding times when the player got on base because of a walk or being hit by a pitch). In \(74.29 \%\) of the at-bats the player was out, \(17.04 \%\) of the time the player got a single (one base), \(5.17 \%\) of the time the player got a double (two bases), \(0.55 \%\) of the time the player got a triple, and \(2.95 \%\) of the time the player got a home run. a. Verify that the probabilities give a legitimate probability distribution. b. Find the mean of this probability distribution. c. Interpret the mean, explaining why it does not have to be a whole number, even though each possible value for the number of bases is a whole number.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Probabilities sum to 1, confirming legitimacy. b. Mean is 0.4083 bases. c. Mean represents an average and need not be a whole number.

Step by step solution

01

Verify Probabilities Sum to 1

To verify that the given probabilities form a legitimate probability distribution, add up all the probabilities. They must sum to 1. Calculate the total probability:\[0.7429 + 0.1704 + 0.0517 + 0.0055 + 0.0295 = 0.9999\]The total probability is very close to 1 (considering rounding errors), confirming this is a legitimate probability distribution.
02

Identify Values and Probabilities

List the values for the number of bases and their corresponding probabilities: - 0 bases: probability = 0.7429 - 1 base: probability = 0.1704 - 2 bases: probability = 0.0517 - 3 bases: probability = 0.0055 - 4 bases: probability = 0.0295
03

Calculate the Mean

The mean of a probability distribution is calculated by multiplying each outcome by its probability and summing the results:\[\mu = (0 \times 0.7429) + (1 \times 0.1704) + (2 \times 0.0517) + (3 \times 0.0055) + (4 \times 0.0295)\]Evaluating this gives:\[\mu = 0 + 0.1704 + 0.1034 + 0.0165 + 0.1180 = 0.4083\]The mean of the distribution is 0.4083 bases.
04

Interpret the Mean

The mean value of 0.4083 means that on average, a player gets 0.4083 bases per at-bat, indicative of overall performance across many at-bats. Although the mean is not a whole number, each at-bat results in a whole number of bases. The mean reflects an average over a large number of trials, which may not correspond to any single observational outcome.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean of Probability Distribution
To understand the mean of a probability distribution, imagine you are observing a certain event again and again, and each time it has some different outcomes. Here, the event is a baseball player going to bat, and the outcomes are the number of bases they achieve. The 'mean' in this context is an average value that gives a sense of what is typical or expected over many events.

Each outcome, like getting 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 bases, is multiplied by its probability of occurring. These products are then summed up to get the mean. This provides an overall expected outcome for each time the event occurs. For instance, if you see \( ext{mean} = 0.4083 \), this represents the average number of bases obtained in a large collection of at-bats. It's okay if the mean is not a whole number, because it is a statistical expectation, not an exact count. So, the mean can show averages that would be impossible in a single event but make perfect sense over many events.
Discrete Random Variables
A discrete random variable is a variable that takes on distinct, separate values. In our context, this refers to the number of bases a baseball player can achieve during an at-bat. These bases are quantified in whole numbers: 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4.

Discrete random variables are quite common and useful because they can help in constructing probability distributions, which estimate the likelihood of each possible outcome. For the San Francisco Giants' baseball player example, each at-bat can be considered an instance of observing a particular outcome from the random variable.

Each value of the variable has an associated probability, reflecting how likely it is for that number of bases to be achieved when the player comes to bat. This helps in predicting patterns and making informed decisions over time, such as modifying strategies based on how often certain outcomes occur.
Probability Verification
Probability verification is the process of ensuring that the probabilities assigned to the different outcomes in a probability distribution are valid. This means that if you sum up all the probabilities, they should equal 1.

For the exercise involving the San Francisco Giants, the probabilities of achieving 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 bases are 0.7429, 0.1704, 0.0517, 0.0055, and 0.0295 respectively. Adding these probabilities gives us 0.9999, which is very close to 1. Slight discrepancies might be due to rounding, but it's important that they generally sum to 1 to confirm the distribution is valid.

This step is crucial because it maintains the integrity of the model used for predicting outcomes, ensuring that all possible outcomes are accounted for and that no probability is missing or exceeds the limit.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A quiz in a statistics course has four multiple-choice questions, each with five possible answers. A passing grade is three or more correct answers to the four questions. Allison has not studied for the quiz. She has no idea of the correct answer to any of the questions and decides to guess at random for each. a. Find the probability she lucks out and answers all four questions correctly. b. Find the probability that she passes the quiz.

A balanced die with six sides is rolled 60 times. a. For the binomial distribution of \(X=\) number of \(6 \mathrm{~s}\), what is \(n\) and what is \(p ?\) b. Find the mean and the standard deviation of the distribution of \(X\). Interpret.

For a normal distribution, use Table A, software, or a calculator to find the probability that an observation is a. at least 1 standard deviation above the mean. b. at least 1 standard deviation below the mean. c. In each case, sketch a curve and show the tail probability.

The state of Ohio has several statewide lottery options. One is the Pick 3 game in which you pick one of the 1000 three-digit numbers between 000 and 999\. The lottery selects a three-digit number at random. With a bet of \(\$ 1,\) you win \(\$ 500\) if your number is selected and nothing (\$0) otherwise. (Many states have a very similar type of lottery.) (Source: Background information from www.ohiolottery.com.) a. With a single \(\$ 1\) bet, what is the probability that you win \(\$ 500 ?\) b. Let \(X\) denote your winnings for a \(\$ 1\) bet, so \(x=\$ 0\) or \(x=\$ 500\). Construct the probability distribution for \(X\). c. Show that the mean of the distribution equals 0.50 , corresponding to an expected return of 50 cents for the dollar paid to play. Interpret the mean. d. In Ohio's Pick 4 lottery, you pick one of the 10,000 four-digit numbers between 0000 and 9999 and (with a \(\$ 1\) bet ) win \(\$ 5000\) if you get it correct. In terms of your expected winnings, with which game are you better off - playing Pick 4 , or playing Pick 3 in which you win \(\$ 500\) for a correct choice of a three-digit number? Justify your answer.

In \(2008,\) the murder rates (per 100,000 residents) for the 50 states and the District of Columbia (D.C.) had a mean of 5.39 and a standard deviation of 4.434 (Statistical Abstract of the United States). a. D.C. had a murder rate of 31.4 . Find its \(z\) -score. If the distribution were roughly normal, would this be unusually high? Explain. b. Based on the mean and standard deviation, do you think that the distribution of murder rates is approximately normal? Why or why not?

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