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You randomly sample 10 people in your school, and none of them is a vegetarian. Does this mean that the probability of being a vegetarian for students at your school equals 0 ? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
No, a sample of 10 people is too small to conclude that the probability of being a vegetarian is 0.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the concept of probability

Probability represents the likelihood of an event happening out of the total possible outcomes. It ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event will never happen, and 1 means it will always happen. The situation described involves probability related to sampling, which introduces variables like sample size and randomness.
02

Evaluate the meaning of a sample

A sample is a subset of individuals chosen from a larger population, in this case, the students at your school. The randomness and size of the sample affect its representativeness of the entire population. A sample of 10 people is quite small and may not accurately reflect the broader population characteristics.
03

Apply the Law of Large Numbers

The Law of Large Numbers states that as the size of the sample increases, the sample mean approaches the population mean. This law implies that a larger sample is more likely to provide an accurate estimate of the population characteristic, such as the probability of being a vegetarian.
04

Assess the significance of the sample result

The result of a sample survey reflects only the sample itself and not necessarily the entire population. The fact that none of the 10 sampled people is vegetarian does not guarantee that no students are vegetarians. It simply reflects that out of this specific sample size, no vegetarians were encountered.
05

Conclusion about sample vs. population probability

Based on the sample of 10 people, we observed no vegetarians. However, this is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the probability of being a vegetarian in the broader student population is 0. Many factors, such as sample size and randomness, affect such conclusions.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sampling Methods
Sampling methods are crucial in statistics are used to select a representative group of individuals or items from a larger population. When collecting data, it's often impractical to examine an entire population due to resource constraints. Therefore, a sample is used to make inferences about the entire group.

There are different types of sampling methods used in statistics:
  • Simple random sampling: Every individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected. It's like drawing names from a hat—completely random.
  • Systematic sampling: Here, you select every "k-th" individual from the population after a random start; for instance, choosing every 10th student in a list.
  • Stratified sampling: This method involves dividing the population into subgroups or "strata" that share similar characteristics before sampling people from each stratum.
  • Cluster sampling: The population is divided into clusters, and entire clusters are randomly selected. All members of selected clusters participate in the study.
In the exercise, a random sample of only 10 people was taken. This was an attempt at simple random sampling. However, because only a small sample was used, it may not fully represent the entire student body at your school.
Law of Large Numbers
The Law of Large Numbers is an essential concept in probability and statistics. It describes how the average of results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

This law helps explain why larger samples often provide better estimates of population parameters. When the sample size increases, the sample mean gets closer to the true population mean, allowing for more accurate statistical inferences. For example, if you keep sampling people from your school, eventually the sample proportion of vegetarians will approximate the actual proportion of vegetarians within the entire student body.

However, in smaller samples like the one from the exercise, the results can vary widely from the true population characteristics. The result of no vegetarians in a random sample of 10 people doesn't mean the true proportion of vegetarians at school is zero. Only with a larger sample size can we make a more reliable estimation of that probability.
Population vs. Sample
The distinction between population and sample is a fundamental aspect of statistics and probability. A population includes every individual that fits a certain criterion, whereas a sample is just a subset of that population.

Understanding the difference is crucial when analyzing data and drawing conclusions. The sample, if randomly and adequately collected, can let researchers infer characteristics about the entire population. However, errors can arise if the sample is not representative.

In the context of the exercise, the population is all the students at the school. The sample, on the other hand, consists of only 10 individuals randomly chosen from this vast population. This is why the absence of vegetarians in the small sample does not imply there are no vegetarians in the entire school. Conclusions about the population should be cautiously made, considering if the sample size is large enough and whether it accurately reflects the diverse characteristics of the whole group.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A teacher announces a pop quiz for which the student is completely unprepared. The quiz consists of 100 true-false questions. The student has no choice but to guess the answer randomly for all 100 questions. a. Simulate taking this quiz by random guessing. Number a sheet of paper 1 to 100 to represent the 100 questions. Write a \(\mathrm{T}\) (true) or \(\mathrm{F}\) (false) for each question, by predicting what you think would happen if you repeatedly flipped a coin and let a tail represent a T guess and a head represent an F guess. (Don't actually flip a coin, but merely write down what you think a random series of guesses would look like.) b. How many questions would you expect to answer correctly simply by guessing? c. The table shows the 100 correct answers. The answers should be read across rows. How many questions did you answer correctly? d. The above answers were actually randomly generated by the Simulating the Probability of Head With a Fair Coin applet on the text CD. What percentage were true, and what percentage would you expect? Why are they not necessarily identical? e. Are there groups of answers within the sequence of 100 answers that appear nonrandom? For instance, what is the longest run of Ts or Fs? By comparison, which is the longest run of Ts or Fs within your sequence of 100 answers? (There is a tendency in guessing what randomness looks like to identify too few long runs in which the same outcome occurs several times in a row.)

Your teacher gives a truefalse pop quiz with 10 questions. a. Show that the number of possible outcomes for the sample space of possible sequences of 10 answers is 1024 . b. What is the complement of the event of getting at least one of the questions wrong? c. With random guessing, show that the probability of getting at least one question wrong is \(0.999 .\)

A 2007 study by the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse at Columbia University reported that for college students, the estimated probability of being a binge drinker was 0.50 for males and 0.34 for females. Using notation, express each of these as a conditional probability.

For the 10-year period between 2000 and \(2010,\) the average number of deaths due to accidents involving U.S. commercial airline carriers has been about 46 per year. Over that same period, the average number of passengers has been more than 600 million per year. a. Can you consider this a long run or short run of trials? Explain. b. Estimate the probability of dying on a particular flight. (By contrast, for a trip by auto in a Western country, the probability of death in a 1000 -mile trip is about 1 in \(42,000,\) or more than 50 times the flight's estimated probability.) c. As of April 2011, the last fatal accident involving a U.S. carrier occurred in Buffalo, New York, in February \(2009,\) a span of more than two years. Mary comments that she is currently afraid of flying because the airlines are "due for an accident." Comment on Mary's reasoning.

Two friends decide to go to the track and place some bets. One friend remarks that in an upcoming race, the number 5 horse is paying 50 to \(1 .\) This means that anyone who bets on the 5 horse receives \(\$ 50\) for each \(\$ 1\) bet, if in fact the 5 horse wins the race. He goes on to mention that it is a great bet, because there are only eight horses running in the race, and therefore the probability of horse 5 winning must be \(1 / 8 .\) Is the last statement true or false? Explain.

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