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A couple plans to have two children. Each child is equally likely to be a girl or boy, with gender independent of that of the other child. a. Construct a sample space for the genders of the two children. b. Find the probability that both children are girls. c. Answer part b if in reality, for a given child, the chance of a girl is 0.49 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) Sample space: {GG, GB, BG, BB}. b) If P(girl) = 0.5, P(GG) = 0.25. c) If P(girl) = 0.49, P(GG) = 0.2401.

Step by step solution

01

Identify Outcomes for Each Child

Each child can either be a girl (G) or a boy (B). Therefore, the outcomes for each child are G or B.
02

Construct Sample Space

The sample space for two children can be constructed considering all combinations of the possible outcomes of the first and the second child. The sample space is: \( \{ GG, GB, BG, BB \} \). These represent both children being girls, first a girl then a boy, first a boy then a girl, and both being boys respectively.
03

Calculate Probability of Both Children Being Girls

Given that the gender of each child is independent and the probability of having a girl is 0.5, we use the multiplication rule for independent events to find the probability both children are girls: \( P(GG) = 0.5 \times 0.5 = 0.25 \).
04

Recalculate Probability with Different Chances

In the second scenario, the probability of having a girl is 0.49 for each child. Recalculate using the same multiplication rule: \( P(GG) = 0.49 \times 0.49 = 0.2401 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability, the sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. For example, when considering the genders of two children, each child can be either a girl (G) or a boy (B). Thus, each individual child has two potential outcomes.
When you calculate the sample space for two children, you consider all combinations of these gender outcomes. For the specific case of two children, the potential outcomes are:
  • Both children are girls: GG
  • The first child is a girl and the second a boy: GB
  • The first child is a boy and the second a girl: BG
  • Both children are boys: BB
Thus, the sample space for the gender of two children is: \(\{ GG, GB, BG, BB \} \).
This set of outcomes is fundamental in calculating probabilities for more complex scenarios.
Independent Events
An important concept in probability is that of independent events. Events are considered independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. In the context of the gender of children, the gender of one child does not influence the gender of another.
This means that if we have a child, whether they are a boy or a girl does not affect the probabilities of the genders of their siblings. This independence allows us to simplify situations significantly because probabilities for independent events can be calculated using straightforward methods.
When dealing with independent events, if you want to find the probability that both events happen, you multiply the probability of each event occurring. This principle is known as the multiplication rule for independent events.
Multiplication Rule
The multiplication rule is a key concept when working with independent events in probability. This rule allows you to determine the probability of two or more independent events occurring in sequence by multiplying their individual probabilities.
In our example, the gender of each child is an independent event. Thus, if you want to know the probability that both children are girls (GG), you multiply the probability of the first being a girl by the probability of the second being a girl:
\[ P(GG) = P(G) \times P(G) \]If the probability of each child being a girl is 0.5, then:\[ P(GG) = 0.5 \times 0.5 = 0.25 \]However, if for some reason the probability changes (for instance to 0.49 for having a girl), the multiplication rule still applies:\[ P(GG) = 0.49 \times 0.49 = 0.2401 \]This allows reliable calculation of probabilities for independent events, even if individual probabilities change.
Gender Probability
The concept of gender probability involves calculating the likelihood of a child being a girl or a boy. In many scenarios, it is assumed that the probability is equal for either gender, which is 0.5 for a girl and 0.5 for a boy, due to biological reasons.
This assumption simplifies probabilistic calculations; however, real-world data may suggest slight variations from the 0.5 probability. For example, when estimating gender probability with a chance of 0.49 for a girl, while such variation remains small, it can still impact the outcome calculations as seen when recalculating the probability of two girls:
\[ P(GG) = 0.49 \times 0.49 = 0.2401 \]Understanding gender probability and how it affects overall calculations helps when applying these concepts to various probability problems, allowing finer adjustments based on actual data or theoretical scenarios.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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