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91Ó°ÊÓ

Suppose that a city planning commission wants to know the proportion of city residents who support installing streetlights in the downtown area. Two different people independently selected random samples of city residents and used their sample data to construct the following confidence intervals for the population proportion: Interval 1:(0.28,0.34) Interval 2:(0.31,0.33) (Hint: Consider the formula for the confidence interval given on page 444.) a. Explain how it is possible that the two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place. b. Which of the two intervals conveys more precise information about the value of the population proportion? c. If both confidence intervals have a \(95 \%\) confidence level, which confidence interval was based on the smaller sample size? How can you tell? d. If both confidence intervals were based on the same sample size, which interval has the higher confidence level? How can you tell?

Short Answer

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a. The two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place because they are based on independent random samples, leading to different sample proportions and potentially different sample sizes, which affect the margin of error. b. Interval 2 is more precise as it is narrower, providing a smaller range of possible values for the population proportion. c. Interval 1 is wider, meaning it was based on a smaller sample size if both confidence intervals have a 95% confidence level. d. If both intervals were based on the same sample size, Interval 1 would have a higher confidence level since it is wider and covers more possible values for the population proportion.

Step by step solution

01

a. Explain how it is possible that the two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place.

The two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place because they are based on independent random samples of city residents. Variation in the sampling process can cause the sample proportions to be different, leading to different centers of confidence intervals. Another reason could be a difference in the sample sizes, which affects the margin of error, causing the intervals to be centered differently.
02

b. Which of the two intervals conveys more precise information about the value of the population proportion?

The more precise interval will be the one with a smaller width, as it provides a smaller range of possible values for the population proportion. Comparing the two given intervals: Interval 1: \(0.34-0.28=0.06\) Interval 2: \(0.33-0.31=0.02\) Interval 2 is narrower and, therefore, provides more precise information about the population proportion.
03

c. If both confidence intervals have a 95% confidence level, which confidence interval was based on the smaller sample size? How can you tell?

The width of a confidence interval is directly proportional to the standard error which, in turn, is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size. So, the larger the sample size, the smaller the width of the confidence interval. If both confidence intervals have a 95% confidence level, the wider interval indicates a smaller sample size. In our case, Interval 1 is wider, meaning it was based on a smaller sample size.
04

d. If both confidence intervals were based on the same sample size, which interval has the higher confidence level? How can you tell?

If both confidence intervals were based on the same sample size, a wider interval would correspond to a higher confidence level, as it covers more possible values for the population proportion. In our case, Interval 1 is wider, so if both intervals were based on the same sample size, Interval 1 would have the higher confidence level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
When we talk about the population proportion, we're referring to the fraction or percentage of individuals in a population who exhibit a particular characteristic or opinion. For instance, in the exercise given, the population proportion is the percentage of city residents who support the installation of streetlights downtown.
The goal of sampling and constructing confidence intervals is to estimate this population proportion accurately. Since it's not feasible to survey every individual in the city, statisticians use a sample or a subset of the population to draw inferences about the entire population. By analyzing the sample, they try to determine what the broader population might think.
One key factor affecting our estimate of the population proportion is the variability inherent in random sampling. Different samples can give rise to different sample proportions, which is why confidence intervals can have different centers. This variation is essentially random, occurring purely due to the nature of independent sampling from a population.
Sample Size
Sample size plays a crucial role in statistics, especially in the construction of confidence intervals. It refers to the number of observations or data points collected in a study. In the context of confidence intervals, a larger sample size generally leads to more precise estimates of population parameters.
Why is sample size so important? A larger sample size tends to be more representative of the population, reducing the standard error of the sample proportion. This, in turn, produces a narrower confidence interval, signifying a more precise estimate.
In the exercise, we observed that even though both intervals have a 95% confidence level, the wider interval suggested a smaller sample size because it results in a larger margin of error. When you gather more data from a population, the randomness decreases, providing a clearer picture of the true population proportion.
Margin of Error
Margin of error is a measure of the uncertainty or variability in an estimate. In the context of confidence intervals, it represents the range within which the true population parameter is expected to lie, with a given level of confidence.
Mathematically, the margin of error can be affected by several factors, including the standard deviation of the sample and the sample size. Larger sample sizes lead to smaller margins of error, providing more precise estimates.
A practical example from the exercise is the widths of the confidence intervals. The margin of error is essentially half the difference between the upper and lower limits of the confidence interval. Interval 1, being wider, has a larger margin of error than Interval 2. This larger error margin suggests either a less precise estimate or a higher confidence level, depending on the context.
Confidence Level
The confidence level represents the degree of certainty we have regarding the interval estimate. It's expressed as a percentage, typically 90%, 95%, or 99%, indicating how confident we are that the population parameter lies within the interval.
A higher confidence level means that we are more confident that the interval has captured the true parameter, but it also results in a wider interval. This is because, by increasing the confidence, we sacrifice precision to ensure that the true parameter is captured.
In the exercise, if both intervals were created from the same sample size, the wider interval would have the higher confidence level. This is an example of the trade-off between confidence and precision: more confidence requires a wider net to "catch" the true population parameter.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The report "The 2016 Consumer Financial Literacy Survey" (The National Foundation for Credit Counseling, www.nfcc.org, retrieved October 28,2016 ) summarized data from a representative sample of 1668 adult Americans. Based on data from this sample, it was reported that over half of U.S. adults would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) on their knowledge of personal finance. This statement was based on observing that 934 people in the sample would have given themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\). a. Construct and interpret a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of all adult Americans who would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) on their financial knowledge of personal finance. b. Is the confidence interval from Part (a) consistent with the statement that a majority of adult Americans would give themselves a grade of \(\mathrm{A}\) or \(\mathrm{B}\) ? Explain why or why not.

For each of the following choices, explain which one would result in a wider large-sample confidence interval for \(p:\) a. \(90 \%\) confidence level or \(95 \%\) confidence level b. \(n=100\) or \(n=400\)

Describe how each of the following factors affects the width of the large- sample confidence interval for \(p\) : a. The confidence level b. The sample size c. The value of \(\hat{p}\)

Three different statistics are being considered for estimating a population characteristic. The sampling distributions of the three statistics are shown in the following illustration: Which statistic would you recommend? Explain your choice.

A consumer group is interested in estimating the proportion of packages of ground beef sold at a particular store that have an actual fat content exceeding the fat content stated on the label. How many packages of ground beef should be tested in order to have a margin of error of \(0.05 ?\)

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