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Consider taking a random sample from a population with \(p=0.70\) a. What is the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) for random samples of size \(100 ?\) b. Would the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) be smaller for samples of size 100 or samples of size \(400 ?\) c. Does decreasing the sample size by a factor of \(4,\) from 400 to \(100,\) result in a standard error of \(\hat{p}\) that is four times as large?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The standard error of \(\hat{p}\) for random samples of size 100 is \(0.0458\). b. The standard error of \(\hat{p}\) would be smaller for samples of size 400. c. Decreasing the sample size by a factor of 4, from 400 to 100, results in a standard error of \(\hat{p}\) that is two times as large, not four times as large.

Step by step solution

01

(Calculate the standard error for n=100)

:We are given that the population proportion \(p=0.70\) and the sample size \(n=100\). We can plug these values into the formula to find the standard error: \[\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.70 \times (1-0.70)}{100}}\] Calculate the standard error: \[\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.70 \times 0.30}{100}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.21}{100}} = 0.0458\]
02

(Compare the standard error for n=100 and n=400)

:Now, let's calculate the standard error for a sample size of 400: \[\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.70 \times (1-0.70)}{400}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.21}{400}} = 0.0229\] The standard error for a sample size of 100 is 0.0458; for a sample size of 400, it is 0.0229. Therefore, the standard error of the sample proportion is smaller for samples of size 400.
03

(Determine if decreasing the sample size by a factor of 4 increases the standard error by a factor of 4)

:Lastly, we need to check if decreasing the sample size by a factor of 4 (from 400 to 100) increases the standard error by a factor of 4. Given: Standard error for n=100: 0.0458 Standard error for n=400: 0.0229 Divide the larger standard error by the smaller one: \[\frac{0.0458}{0.0229} = 2\] This shows that decreasing the sample size by a factor of 4 results in a standard error of the sample proportion that is two times as large, not four times as large.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Population Proportion
The population proportion, denoted as 'p,' represents the percentage of individuals in a population who have a particular characteristic or attribute. It is a value between 0 and 1, indicating the entire portion of the population that shares that characteristic. For example, if 'p' equals 0.70, this means that 70% of the population possesses the attribute in question.

Understanding the population proportion is vital when conducting data analysis or research, as it serves as the foundation for estimating characteristics within a larger group. When we take a sample, the proportion of people in the sample with the characteristic, which is denoted by \(\hat{p}\), should ideally reflect the true population proportion 'p'. Discrepancies between \(\hat{p}\) and 'p' can occur, but with larger sample sizes, these should minimize, giving us a more accurate representation of the population.

This concept sits at the heart of statistical analysis, where the goal is often to infer population characteristics from sampled data, requiring a clear understanding of how 'p' informs our estimates and calculations.
Sample Size
The sample size, often denoted as 'n,' refers to the total number of observations or individuals that are included in a statistical sample. It's a crucial element of any statistical analysis because the size of the sample directly affects the reliability and precision of the estimates and conclusions we draw about the population from which it was drawn.

Larger samples typically provide more accurate estimates of population parameters, like the population proportion, because they are less subject to sampling variability. Conversely, small sample sizes can lead to estimates with greater variability and uncertainty. In statistical terms, the relationship between 'n' and the accuracy of \(\hat{p}\) is inverse; as 'n' increases, the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) decreases, leading to more precise estimates.

The importance of sample size cannot be overstated when trying to generalize findings to a broader group. A well-chosen sample size not only reflects the population proportion more accurately but also affects the confidence we can have in our statistical tests and the conclusions they support.
Standard Error Calculation
Standard error is a statistical measure that tells us how precise our estimate of a population parameter is. When it comes to the sample proportion, the standard error of the sample proportion, denoted \(\sigma_{\hat{p}}\), quantifies the variability of \(\hat{p}\) from sample to sample, if the sampling was repeated infinite times under the same conditions.

The formula to calculate the standard error of the sample proportion is:
\[\sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p \times (1-p)}{n}}\]
In this equation, 'p' is the population proportion, and 'n' is the sample size. The standard error gets smaller as the sample size 'n' increases, which means our estimates become more precise. As we've seen in the given exercise, a sample size of 400 results in a smaller standard error compared to a sample size of 100.

Finally, when the sample size is decreased by a factor of four, the impact on standard error isn't a direct multiplication by four but follows the square root relationship outlined in the formula. This nuance is crucial for students to understand, as it highlights that changes in sample size have a non-linear effect on the precision of their estimates. Accurately calculating and interpreting standard error is fundamental for researchers to convey the level of uncertainty in their estimates of population characteristics.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A survey on SodaHead (www.sodahead.com/survey /featured/anonymous- advice/?results51, retrieved May \(13,\) 2016) reported that 603 out of 753 respondents replied "no" to the question "Should you be friends with your boss on Facebook?" a. Use the accompanying output from the "Bootstrap Confidence Interval for One Proportion" Shiny app to report a \(95 \%\) bootstrap confidence interval for the population proportion who would reply "no" to the question. Interpret the confidence interval in context. b. SodaHead provides summaries for anonymous and voluntary responses to survey questions. Do you believe that the proportion of respondents who reply "no" to the question in an anonymous and voluntary situation would tend to underestimate or overestimate the actual population proportion of interest? Explain your reasoning.

The report titled "One in Three American Households Are Stuck in a Relationship with a Financial Services Provider They Don't Trust" (June \(29,2016,\) www.businesswire.com/news /home/20160629005198/en/American- Households-Stuck -Relationship-Financial-Services-Provider, retrieved May 4, 2017) estimated that \(31 \%\) of American households feel obliged to do business with one or more financial services companies they distrust. This estimate is based on a representative sample of 1056 consumers age 18 and older. Use the "Bootstrap Confidence Interval for One Proportion" Shiny app to generate a \(95 \%\) bootstrap confidence interval for the proportion of all U.S. households that feel obliged to do business with one or more financial services companies they distrust. Interpret the interval in context.

The study "The Demographics of Social Media Users" (Pew Research Center, August 19,2015 ) reported that \(72 \%\) of adult American Internet users use Facebook. The \(72 \%\) figure was based on a representative sample of \(n=1602\) adult American Internet users. Suppose that you would like to use the data from this survey to estimate the proportion of all adult American Internet users who use Facebook. Answer the four key questions (QSTN) to confirm that the suggested method in this situation is a large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion.

Use the formula for the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) to explain why a. the standard error is greater when the value of the population proportion \(p\) is near 0.5 than when it is near 1 . b. the standard error of \(\hat{p}\) is the same when the value of the population proportion is \(p=0.2\) as it is when \(p=0.8\).

Suppose that a campus bookstore manager wants to know the proportion of students at the college who purchase some or all of their textbooks online. Two different people independently selected random samples of students at the college and used their sample data to construct the following confidence intervals for the population proportion: Interval 1:(0.54,0.57) Interval 2:(0.46,0.62) a. Explain how it is possible that the two confidence intervals are not centered in the same place. b. Which of the two intervals conveys more precise information about the value of the population proportion? c. If both confidence intervals have a \(95 \%\) confidence level, which confidence interval was based on the smaller sample size? How can you tell? d. If both confidence intervals were based on the same sample size, which interval has the higher confidence level? How can you tell?

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